A single amino acid in the HA of pH1N1 2009 influenza virus affects cell tropism in human airway epithelium, but not transmission in ferrets

The first pandemic of the 21(st) century, pandemic H1N1 2009 (pH1N1 2009), emerged from a swine-origin source. Although human infections with swine-origin influenza have been reported previously, none went on to cause a pandemic or indeed any sustained human transmission. In previous pandemics, specific residues in the receptor binding site of the haemagglutinin (HA) protein of influenza have been associated with the ability of the virus to transmit between humans. In the present study we investigated the effect of residue 227 in HA on cell tropism and transmission of pH1N1 2009. In pH1N1 2009 and recent seasonal H1N1 viruses this residue is glutamic acid, whereas in swine influenza it is alanine. Using human airway epithelium, we show a differential cell tropism of pH1N1 2009 compared to pH1N1 2009 E227A and swine influenza suggesting this residue may alter the sialic acid conformer binding preference of the HA. Furthermore, both pH1N1 2009 E227A and swine influenza multi-cycle viral growth was found to be attenuated in comparison to pH1N1 2009 in human airway epithelium. However this altered tropism and viral growth in human airway epithelium did not abrogate respiratory droplet transmission of pH1N1 2009 E227A in ferrets. Thus, acquisition of E at residue 227 was not solely responsible for the ability of pH1N1 2009 to transmit between humans.

Changes in the relative importance of sector and regional Factors: 1987-2002

A stylised fact in the real estate portfolio diversification literature is that sector (property-type) effects are relatively more important than regional (geographical) factors in determining property returns. Thus, for those portfolio managers who follow a top-down approach to portfolio management, they should first choose in which sectors to invest and then select the best properties in each market. However, the question arises as to whether the dominance of the sector effects relative to regional effects is constant. If not property fund managers will need to take account of regional effects in developing their portfolio strategy. We find the results show that the sector-specific factors dominate the regional-specific factors for the vast majority of the time. Nonetheless, there are periods when the regional factors are of equal or greater importance than the sector effects. In particular, the sector effects tend to dominate during volatile periods of the real estate cycle; however, during calmer periods the sector and regional effects are of equal importance. These findings suggest that the sector effects are still the most important aspect in the development of an active portfolio strategy.

Limiting factors in the restoration of UK grassland beetle assemblages

Grasslands restoration is a key management tool contributing to the long-term maintenance of insect populations, providing functional connectivity and mitigating against extinction debt across landscapes. As knowledge of grassland insect communities is limited, the lag between the initiation of restoration and the ability of these new habitats to contribute to such processes is unclear. Using ten data sets, ranging from 3 to 14 years, we investigate the lag between restoration and the establishment of phytophagous beetle assemblages typical of species rich grasslands. We used traits and ecological characteristics to determine factors limiting beetle colonisation, and also considered how food-web structure changed during restoration. For sites where seed addition of host-plants occurred the success in replicating beetle assemblages increased over time following a negative exponential function. Extrapolation beyond the existing data set tentatively suggested that success would plateau after 20 years, representing a c. 60% increase in assemblage similarity to target grasslands. In the absence of seed addition, similarity to the target grasslands showed no increase over time. Where seed addition was used the connectance of plant-herbivore food webs decreased over time, approaching values typical of species rich grasslands after c. 7 years. This trend was, however, dependent on the inclusion of a single site containing data in excess of 6 years of restoration management. Beetles not capable of flight, those showing high degrees of host-plant specialisation and species feeding on nationally rare host plants take between 1 and 3 years longer to colonise. Successful grassland restoration is underpinned by the establishment of host-plants, although individual species traits compound the effects of poor host-plant establishment to slow colonisation. The use of pro-active grassland restoration to mitigate against future environmental change should account for lag periods in excess of 10 years if the value of these habitats is to be fully realised.

Limiting factors in the restoration of grassland insects

Grasslands restoration is a key management tool contributing to the long-term maintenance of insect populations, providing functional connectivity and mitigating against extinction debt across landscapes. As knowledge of grassland insect communities is limited, the lag between the initiation of restoration and the ability of these new habitats to contribute to the successful enhancement of native biodiversity is unclear. Using two long term data sets, we investigate differences in successional trajectories during the establishment of butterfly (11 years) and phytophagous beetle (13 years) communities during the recreation of calcareous grassland. Overall restoration success was higher for the butterflies than the beetles. However, both shared a general pattern of rapidly increasing restoration success over the first five years, awhich approached an asymptote after c. 10 years. The use of pro-active grassland restoration to mitigate against future environmental change therefore needs to account for such time lag if the value of these habitats is to be fully realised.

Analysis of Direct Outdoor Air Cooling Efficency for Combined Variable Air Volume Air-conditioning System in Stores in Cold Climates of China

Direct outdoor air cooling contributes a lot not only to the improvement of the indoor air quality but also to the energy saving. Its full use will reduce the water chiller’s running time especially in some stores where cooling load keeps much higher and longer than that in other buildings. A novel air-conditioning system named Combined Variable Air Volume system (CVAV), combining a normal AHU with a separate outdoor air supply system, was proposed firstly by the authors. The most attractive feature of the system is its full utilization of cooling capacity and freshness of outdoor air in the transition period of the year round. On the basis of the obtain of the dynamic cooling loads of the typical shopping malls in different four cities located in cold climates in China with the aid of DOE-2, the possibility of increasing the amount of outdoor air volume of CVAV system in the transition period instead of operating the water chillers was confirmed. Moreover, a new concept, Direct Outdoor Air Cooling Efficiency (DOACE), was defined as the ratio of cooling capacity of outdoor air to the water chiller, indicating the degree of outdoor air’s utilization. And the DOACE of the CVAV was calculated and compared with that of conventional all-air constant volume air-conditioning systems, the results showed that CVAV bear much more energy saving potential with the 10%~19% higher DOACE and it is a kind of energy efficient systems and can improve the indoor air quality as well.

The effect of copper(II), iron(II) sulphate and vitamin C combinations on the weak antimicrobial activity of (+)-catechin against Staphylococcus aureus and other microbes

Few attempts have been made to improve the activity of plant compounds with low antimicrobial efficacy. (+)-Catechin, a weak antimicrobial tea flavanol, was combined with putative adjuncts and tested against different species of bacteria. Copper(II) sulphate enhanced (+)-catechin activity against Pseudomonas aeruginosa but not Staphylococcus aureus, Proteus mirabilis or Escherichia coli. Attempts to raise the activity of (+)-catechin against two unresponsive species, S. aureus and E. coli, with iron(II) sulphate, iron(III) chloride, and vitamin C, showed that iron(II) enhanced (+)-catechin against S. aureus, but not E. coli; neither iron(III) nor combined iron(II) and copper(II), enhanced (+)-catechin activity against either species. Vitamin C enhanced copper(II) containing combinations against both species in the absence of iron(II). Catalase or EDTA added to active samples removed viability effects suggesting that active mixtures had produced H2O2via the action of added metal(II) ions. H2O2 generation by (+)-catechin plus copper(II) mixtures and copper(II) alone could account for the principal effect of bacterial growth inhibition following 30 minute exposures as well as the antimicrobial effect of (+)-catechin–iron(II) against S. aureus. These novel findings about a weak antimicrobial flavanol contrast with previous knowledge of more active flavanols with transition metal combinations. Weak antimicrobial compounds like (+)-catechin within enhancement mixtures may therefore be used as efficacious agents. (+)-Catechin may provide a means of lowering copper(II) or iron(II) contents in certain crop protection and other products.

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared to observations during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The parameterized convection model simulations at both 40 km and 12 km grid spacing have a very weak MJO signal and little eastward propagation. A 4 km explicit convection simulation using Smagorinsky subgrid mixing in the vertical and horizontal dimensions exhibits the best MJO strength and propagation speed. 12 km explicit convection simulations also perform much better than the 12 km parameterized convection run, suggesting that the convection scheme, rather than horizontal resolution, is key for these MJO simulations. Interestingly, a 4 km explicit convection simulation using the conventional boundary layer scheme for vertical subgrid mixing (but still using Smagorinsky horizontal mixing) completely loses the large-scale MJO organization, showing that relatively high resolution with explicit convection does not guarantee a good MJO simulation. Models with a good MJO representation have a more realistic relationship between lower-free-tropospheric moisture and precipitation, supporting the idea that moisture-convection feedback is a key process for MJO propagation. There is also increased generation of available potential energy and conversion of that energy into kinetic energy in models with a more realistic MJO, which is related to larger zonal variance in convective heating and vertical velocity, larger zonal temperature variance around 200 hPa, and larger correlations between temperature and ascent (and between temperature and diabatic heating) between 500–400 hPa.

Global warming potentials and radiative efficiencies of halocarbons and related compounds: a comprehensive review

In the mid-1970s it was recognized that, as well as being substances that deplete stratospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were strong greenhouse gases that could have substantial impacts on radiative forcing of climate change. Around a decade later, this group of radiatively active compounds was expanded to include a large number of replacements for ozone-depleting substances such as chlorocarbons, hydrochlorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), bromofluorocarbons, and bromochlorofluorocarbons. This paper systematically reviews the published literature concerning the radiative efficiencies (REs) of CFCs, bromofluorocarbons and bromochlorofluorocarbons (halons), HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3, and related halogen containing compounds. In addition we provide a comprehensive and self-consistent set of new calculations of REs and global warming potentials (GWPs) for these compounds, mostly employing atmospheric lifetimes taken from the available literature. We also present Global Temperature change Potentials (GTPs) for selected gases. Infrared absorption spectra used in the RE calculations were taken from databases and individual studies, and from experimental and ab initio computational studies. Evaluations of REs and GWPs are presented for more than 200 compounds. Our calculations yield REs significantly (> 5%) different from those in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for 49 compounds. We present new RE values for more than 100 gases which were not included in AR4. A widely-used simple method to calculate REs and GWPs from absorption spectra and atmospheric lifetimes is assessed and updated. This is the most comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials of halogenated compounds performed to date.

The extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

The extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (Ex-UTLS) is a transition region between the stratosphere and the troposphere. The Ex-UTLS includes the tropopause, a strong static stability gradient and dynamic barrier to transport. The barrier is reflected in tracer profiles. This region exhibits complex dynamical, radiative, and chemical characteristics that place stringent spatial and temporal requirements on observing and modeling systems. The Ex-UTLS couples the stratosphere to the troposphere through chemical constituent transport (of, e.g., ozone), by dynamically linking the stratospheric circulation with tropospheric wave patterns, and via radiative processes tied to optically thick clouds and clear-sky gradients of radiatively active gases. A comprehensive picture of the Ex-UTLS is presented that brings together different definitions of the tropopause, focusing on observed dynamical and chemical structure and their coupling. This integral view recognizes that thermal gradients and dynamic barriers are necessarily linked, that these barriers inhibit mixing and give rise to specific trace gas distributions, and that there are radiative feedbacks that help maintain this structure. The impacts of 21st century anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere due to ozone recovery and climate change will be felt in the Ex-UTLS, and recent simulations of these effects are summarized and placed in context.

Large-scale surface mass balance of ice sheets from a comprehensive atmospheric model

The surface mass balance for Greenland and Antarctica has been calculated using model data from an AMIP-type experiment for the period 1979–2001 using the ECHAM5 spectral transform model at different triangular truncations. There is a significant reduction in the calculated ablation for the highest model resolution, T319 with an equivalent grid distance of ca 40 km. As a consequence the T319 model has a positive surface mass balance for both ice sheets during the period. For Greenland, the models at lower resolution, T106 and T63, on the other hand, have a much stronger ablation leading to a negative surface mass balance. Calculations have also been undertaken for a climate change experiment using the IPCC scenario A1B, with a T213 resolution (corresponding to a grid distance of some 60 km) and comparing two 30-year periods from the end of the twentieth century and the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. For Greenland there is change of 495 km3/year, going from a positive to a negative surface mass balance corresponding to a sea level rise of 1.4 mm/year. For Antarctica there is an increase in the positive surface mass balance of 285 km3/year corresponding to a sea level fall by 0.8 mm/year. The surface mass balance changes of the two ice sheets lead to a sea level rise of 7 cm at the end of this century compared to end of the twentieth century. Other possible mass losses such as due to changes in the calving of icebergs are not considered. It appears that such changes must increase significantly, and several times more than the surface mass balance changes, if the ice sheets are to make a major contribution to sea level rise this century. The model calculations indicate large inter-annual variations in all relevant parameters making it impossible to identify robust trends from the examined periods at the end of the twentieth century. The calculated inter-annual variations are similar in magnitude to observations. The 30-year trend in SMB at the end of the twenty-first century is significant. The increase in precipitation on the ice sheets follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and is the main reason for the increase in the surface mass balance of Antarctica. On Greenland precipitation in the form of snow is gradually starting to decrease and cannot compensate for the increase in ablation. Another factor is the proportionally higher temperature increase on Greenland leading to a larger ablation. It follows that a modest increase in temperature will not be sufficient to compensate for the increase in accumulation, but this will change when temperature increases go beyond any critical limit. Calculations show that such a limit for Greenland might well be passed during this century. For Antarctica this will take much longer and probably well into following centuries.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations

Winter storm-track activity over the Northern Hemisphere and its changes in a greenhouse gas scenario (the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B forcing) are computed from an ensemble of 23 single runs from 16 coupled global climate models (CGCMs). All models reproduce the general structures of the observed climatological storm-track pattern under present-day forcing conditions. Ensemble mean changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern North Atlantic, amounting to 5%–8% by the end of the twenty-first century. Enhanced activity is also found over the Asian continent and over the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands. At high latitudes and over parts of the subtropics, activity is reduced. Variations of the individual models around the ensemble average signal are not small, with a median of the pattern correlation near r = 0.5. There is, however, no evidence for a link between deviations in present-day climatology and deviations with respect to climate change.

Characterization of energy flux partitioning in urban environments: links with surface seasonal properties

A better understanding of links between the properties of the urban environment and the exchange to the atmosphere is central to a wide range of applications. The numerous measurements of surface energy balance data in urban areas enable intercomparison of observed fluxes from distinct environments. This study analyzes a large database in two new ways. First, instead of normalizing fluxes using net all-wave radiation only the incoming radiative fluxes are used, to remove the surface attributes from the denominator. Second, because data are now available year-round, indices are developed to characterize the fraction of the surface (built; vegetation) actively engaged in energy exchanges. These account for shading patterns within city streets and seasonal changes in vegetation phenology; their impact on the partitioning of the incoming radiation is analyzed. Data from 19 sites in North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia (including 6-yr-long observation campaigns) are used to derive generalized surface–flux relations. The midday-period outgoing radiative fraction decreases with an increasing total active surface index, the stored energy fraction increases with an active built index, and the latent heat fraction increases with an active vegetated index. Parameterizations of these energy exchange ratios as a function of the surface indices [i.e., the Flux Ratio–Active Index Surface Exchange (FRAISE) scheme] are developed. These are used to define four urban zones that characterize energy partitioning on the basis of their active surface indices. An independent evaluation of FRAISE, using three additional sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE), yields accurate predictions of the midday flux partitioning at each location.

Modeling ocean primary production: sensitivity to spectral resolution of attenuation and absorption of light

Modeling the vertical penetration of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) through the ocean, and its utilization by phytoplankton, is fundamental to simulating marine primary production. The variation of attenuation and absorption of light with wavelength suggests that photosynthesis should be modeled at high spectral resolution, but this is computationally expensive. To model primary production in global 3d models, a balance between computer time and accuracy is necessary. We investigate the effects of varying the spectral resolution of the underwater light field and the photosynthetic efficiency of phytoplankton (α∗), on primary production using a 1d coupled ecosystem ocean turbulence model. The model is applied at three sites in the Atlantic Ocean (CIS (∼60°N), PAP (∼50°N) and ESTOC (∼30°N)) to include the effect of different meteorological forcing and parameter sets. We also investigate three different methods for modeling α∗ – as a fixed constant, varying with both wavelength and chlorophyll concentration [Bricaud, A., Morel, A., Babin, M., Allali, K., Claustre, H., 1998. Variations of light absorption by suspended particles with chlorophyll a concentration in oceanic (case 1) waters. Analysis and implications for bio-optical models. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 31033–31044], and using a non-spectral parameterization [Anderson, T.R., 1993. A spectrally averaged model of light penetration and photosynthesis. Limnol. Oceanogr. 38, 1403–1419]. After selecting the appropriate ecosystem parameters for each of the three sites we vary the spectral resolution of light and α∗ from 1 to 61 wavebands and study the results in conjunction with the three different α∗ estimation methods. The results show modeled estimates of ocean primary productivity are highly sensitive to the degree of spectral resolution and α∗. For accurate simulations of primary production and chlorophyll distribution we recommend a spectral resolution of at least six wavebands if α∗ is a function of wavelength and chlorophyll, and three wavebands if α∗ is a fixed value.