Skilloscopy: Bayesian modeling of decision makers' skill

This paper proposes and demonstrates an approach, Skilloscopy, to the assessment of decision makers. In an increasingly sophisticated, connected and information-rich world, decision making is becoming both more important and more difficult. At the same time, modelling decision-making on computers is becoming more feasible and of interest, partly because the information-input to those decisions is increasingly on record. The aims of Skilloscopy are to rate and rank decision makers in a domain relative to each other: the aims do not include an analysis of why a decision is wrong or suboptimal, nor the modelling of the underlying cognitive process of making the decisions. In the proposed method a decision-maker is characterised by a probability distribution of their competence in choosing among quantifiable alternatives. This probability distribution is derived by classic Bayesian inference from a combination of prior belief and the evidence of the decisions. Thus, decision-makers’ skills may be better compared, rated and ranked. The proposed method is applied and evaluated in the gamedomain of Chess. A large set of games by players across a broad range of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) Elo ratings has been used to infer the distribution of players’ rating directly from the moves they play rather than from game outcomes. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the Chess community regarding the stability of the Elo rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The method of Skilloscopy may be applied in any decision domain where the value of the decision-options can be quantified.

Complexation of lanthanides, actinides and transition metal cations with a 6-(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′:6′,2′′-terpyridine ligand: implications for actinide(III)/lanthanide(III) partitioning

The quadridentate N-heterocyclic ligand 6-(5,5,8,8-tetramethyl-5,6,7,8-tetrahydro-1,2,4-benzotriazin- 3-yl)-2,2′ : 6′,2′′-terpyridine (CyMe4-hemi-BTBP) has been synthesized and its interactions with Am(III),U(VI), Ln(III) and some transition metal cations have been evaluated by X-ray crystallographic analysis, Am(III)/Eu(III) solvent extraction experiments, UVabsorption spectrophotometry, NMR studies and ESI-MS. Structures of 1 : 1 complexes with Eu(III), Ce(III) and the linear uranyl (UO2 2+) ion were obtained by X-ray crystallographic analysis, and they showed similar coordination behavior to related BTBP complexes. In methanol, the stability constants of the Ln(III) complexes are slightly lower than those of the analogous quadridentate bis-triazine BTBP ligands, while the stability constant for the Yb(III)complex is higher. 1H NMR titrations and ESI-MS with lanthanide nitrates showed that the ligand forms only 1 : 1 complexes with Eu(III), Ce(III) and Yb(III), while both 1 : 1 and 1 : 2 complexes were formed with La(III) and Y(III) in acetonitrile. A mixture of isomeric chiral 2 : 2 helical complexes was formed with Cu(I), with a slight preference (1.4 : 1) for a single directional isomer. In contrast, a 1 : 1 complex was observed with the larger Ag(I) ion. The ligand was unable to extract Am(III) or Eu(III) from nitric acid solutions into 1-octanol, except in the presence of a synergist at low acidity. The results show that the presence of two outer 1,2,4-triazine rings is required for the efficient extraction and separation of An(III)from Ln(III) by quadridentate N-donor ligands.

Normative, systemic and procedural aspects: a review of indicator-based sustainability assessments in agriculture

Methods for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems do often not fully (i) take into account the multifunctionality of agriculture, (ii) include multidimensionality, (iii) utilize and implement the assessment knowledge and (iv) identify conflicting goals and trade-offs. This chapter reviews seven recently developed multidisciplinary indicator-based assessment methods with respect to their contribution to these shortcomings. All approaches include (1) normative aspects such as goal setting, (2) systemic aspects such as a specification of scale of analysis and (3) a reproducible structure of the approach. The approaches can be categorized into three typologies: first, top-down farm assessments, which focus on field or farm assessment; second, top-down regional assessments, which assess the on-farm and the regional effects; and third, bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches, which focus on a regional scale. Our analysis shows that the bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches seem to better overcome the four shortcomings mentioned above.

Mutamenti politico-istituzionali nella Venezia Giulia e a Trieste tra Tito e gli americani alla luce delle nuove testimonianze documentarie da Washington, 1944-1954

“La questione di Trieste”, ovvero la questione del confine italo-yugoslavo all’indomani della seconda guerra mondiale costituisce da lungo tempo oggetto di attenzione e di esame da parte della storiografia italiana e straniera. Con alcune importanti eccezioni, la ricostruzione complessiva di quelle vicende ha visto il più delle volte il prevalere di un approccio storico-diplomatico che ha reso difficile comprendere con chiarezza i rapporti e le interdipendenze fra contesto locale, contesto nazionale e contesto internazionale. Attraverso la lettura incrociata dell’ampia documentazione proveniente dai fondi dei National Archives Records Administration (NARA) questo studio tenta una rilettura delle varie fasi di sviluppo della questione nel periodo compreso tra il giugno del 1945 e l’ottobre del 1954 secondo una duplice prospettiva: nella prima parte si concentra sulla politica americana a Trieste, guardando nello specifico a due aspetti interni tra loro strettamente correlati, la gestione dell’ordine pubblico e la “strategia” del consenso da realizzarsi mediante il controllo dell’informazione da un lato e la promozione di una politica culturale dall’altro. Sono aspetti entrambi riconducibili al modello del direct rule, che conferiva al governo militare alleato (GMA) piena ed esclusiva autorità di governo sulla zona A della Venezia Giulia, e che ci appaiono centrali anche per cogliere l’interazione fra istituzioni e soggetti sociali. Nella seconda parte, invece, il modificarsi della fonte d’archivio indica un cambiamento di priorità nella politica estera americana relativa a Trieste: a margine dei negoziati internazionali, i documenti del fondo Clare Boothe Luce nelle carte dell’Ambasciata mostrano soprattutto come la questione di Trieste venne proiettata verso l’esterno, verso l’Italia in particolare, e sfruttata – principalmente dall’ambasciatrice – nell’ottica bipolare della guerra fredda per rinforzare il sostegno interno alla politica atlantica. Il saggio, dunque, si sviluppa lungo due linee: dentro e fuori Trieste, dentro 1945-1952, fuori 1953-1954, perché dalle fonti consultate sono queste ad emergere come aree di priorità nei due periodi. Abstract - English The “Trieste question”, or the question regarding the Italian - Yugoslav border after the Second World War, has been the object of careful examination in both Italian and foreign historiography for a long time. With a few important exceptions, the overall reconstruction of these events has been based for the most part on historic and diplomatic approaches, which have sometimes made it rather difficult to understand clearly the relationships and interdependences at play between local, national and international contexts. Through a comparative analysis of a large body of documents from the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), College Park MD, this essay attempts a second reading of the various phases in which the question developed between June 1945 and October 1954, following a twofold perspective: the first part focuses on American policy for Trieste, specifically looking at two internal and closely linked aspects, on the one hand, the management of ‘law and order’, as well as a ‘strategy’ of consent, to be achieved through the control of all the means of information , and, on the other, the promotion of a cultural policy. Both aspects can be traced back to the ‘direct rule’ model, which gave the Allied Military Government (AMG) full and exclusive governing authority over Venezia Giulia’s Zone A. These issues are also fundamental to a better understanding of the relationships between institutions and social subjects. In the second part of the essay , the change in archival sources clearly indicates a new set of priorities in American foreign policy regarding Trieste: outside any international negotiations for the settlement of the question, the Clare Boothe Luce papers held in the Embassy’s archives, show how the Trieste question was focused on external concerns, Italy in particular, and exploited – above all by the ambassador – within the bi-polar optic of the Cold War, in order to strengthen internal support for Atlantic policies. The essay therefore follows two main lines of inquiry: within and outside Trieste, within in 1945-1952, and outside 1953-1954, since, from the archival sources used, these emerge as priority areas in the two periods.

A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.

Non-uniform data distribution for communication-efficient parallel clustering

Global communicationrequirements andloadimbalanceof someparalleldataminingalgorithms arethe major obstacles to exploitthe computational power of large-scale systems. This work investigates how non-uniform data distributions can be exploited to remove the global communication requirement and to reduce the communication costin parallel data mining algorithms and, in particular, in the k-means algorithm for cluster analysis. In the straightforward parallel formulation of the k-means algorithm, data and computation loads are uniformly distributed over the processing nodes. This approach has excellent load balancing characteristics that may suggest it could scale up to large and extreme-scale parallel computing systems. However, at each iteration step the algorithm requires a global reduction operationwhichhinders thescalabilityoftheapproach.Thisworkstudiesadifferentparallelformulation of the algorithm where the requirement of global communication is removed, while maintaining the same deterministic nature ofthe centralised algorithm. The proposed approach exploits a non-uniform data distribution which can be either found in real-world distributed applications or can be induced by means ofmulti-dimensional binary searchtrees. The approachcanalso be extended to accommodate an approximation error which allows a further reduction ofthe communication costs. The effectiveness of the exact and approximate methods has been tested in a parallel computing system with 64 processors and in simulations with 1024 processing element

Data mining in education

The third chapter, data mining in education, examines potentials and constraints in the use of data mining in education, summarizing the potential they have to offer meaningful support to: students, teachers, tutors, authors, developers, researchers, and the education and training institutions in which they work and study.

What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. Salazar, A. Jarvis, C. E. Navarro-Valcines.

Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether the actions listed in the proposal alone and specifically for smallholders, truly represent priority issues. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change.

How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?

Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability.

Pesticide-handling practices of smallholder coffee farmers in Eastern Jamaica

Pesticide use among smallholder coffee producers in Jamaica has been associated with significant occupational health effects. Research on pesticide handling practices, however, has been scarce, especially in eastern Jamaica. This explorative study aims at filling this gap and provides a first basis to develop effective interventions to promote a safer pesticide use. A random sample of 81 coffee farmers was surveyed. The majority of farmers reported to suffer from at least one health symptom associated with pesticide handling, but safety practices were scarcely adopted. There was also the risk that other household members and the wider local community are exposed to pesticides. The lack of training on pesticide management, the role of health services and the cost for protective equipment seemed to be the most significant factors that influence current pesticide handling practices in eastern Jamaica. Further research is recommended to develop a systemic understanding of farmer’s behaviour to provide a more solid basis for the development of future intervention programmes.

An Experiment on Prisoner's Dilemma with confirmed Proposals

We apply an alternating proposals protocol with a confirmation stage as a way of solving a Prisoner’s Dilemma game. We interpret players’ proposals and (no) confirmation of outcomes of the game as a tacit communication device. The protocol leads to unprecedented high levels of cooperation in the laboratory. Assigning the power of confirmation to one of the two players alone, rather than alternating the role of a leader significantly increases the probability of signing a cooperative agreement in the first bargaining period. We interpret pre-agreement strategies as tacit messages on players’ willingness to cooperate and on their beliefs about the others’ type.

Sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the EU elderly: a comparative analysis in four countries

Objective: To investigate the sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the elderly in four EU countries. Design: Cross-sectional study. For each country, a regression was performed of a multidimensional index of dietary quality v. sociodemographic variables. Setting In Finland, Finnish Household Budget Survey (1998 and 2006); in Sweden, SNAC-K (2001–2004); in the UK, Expenditure & Food Survey (2006–07); in Italy, Multi-purpose Survey of Daily Life (2009). Subjects: One- and two-person households of over-50s (Finland, n 2994; UK, n 4749); over-50 s living alone or in two-person households (Italy, n 7564); over-60 s (Sweden, n 2023). Results: Diet quality among the EU elderly is both low on average and heterogeneous across individuals. The regression models explained a small but significant part of the observed heterogeneity in diet quality. Resource availability was associated with diet quality either negatively (Finland and UK) or in a non-linear or non-statistically significant manner (Italy and Sweden), as was the preference for food parameter. Education, not living alone and female gender were characteristics positively associated with diet quality with consistency across the four countries, unlike socio-professional status, age and seasonality. Regional differences within countries persisted even after controlling for the other sociodemographic variables. Conclusions: Poor dietary choices among the EU elderly were not caused by insufficient resources and informational measures could be successful in promoting healthy eating for healthy ageing. On the other hand, food habits appeared largely set in the latter part of life, with age and retirement having little influence on the healthiness of dietary choices.

The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones

The ability of the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in winter [December–February (DJF)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] is investigated in detail. Cyclones are identified as maxima in T42 vorticity at 850 hPa and their propagation is tracked using an objective feature-tracking algorithm. By comparing the historical CMIP5 simulations (1976–2005) and the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1979–2008), the authors find that systematic biases affect the number and intensity of North Atlantic cyclones in CMIP5 models. In DJF, the North Atlantic storm track tends to be either too zonal or displaced southward, thus leading to too few and weak cyclones over the Norwegian Sea and too many cyclones in central Europe. In JJA, the position of the North Atlantic storm track is generally well captured but some CMIP5 models underestimate the total number of cyclones. The dynamical intensity of cyclones, as measured by either T42 vorticity at 850 hPa or mean sea level pressure, is too weak in both DJF and JJA. The intensity bias has a hemispheric character, and it cannot be simply attributed to the representation of the North Atlantic large- scale atmospheric state. Despite these biases, the representation of Northern Hemisphere (NH) storm tracks has improved since CMIP3 and some CMIP5 models are able of representing well both the number and the intensity of North Atlantic cyclones. In particular, some of the higher-atmospheric-resolution models tend to have a better representation of the tilt of the North Atlantic storm track and of the intensity of cyclones in DJF.

A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the uncertainties in the multimodel projections. Under the midrange representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario, the December–February (DJF) response is characterized by a tripolar pattern over Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. The June–August (JJA) response is characterized by a reduction in the number of North Atlantic cyclones along the southern flank of the storm track. The total number of cyclones decreases in both DJF (24%) and JJA (22%). Classifying cyclones according to their intensity indicates a slight basinwide reduction in the number of cy- clones associated with strong winds, but an increase in those associated with strong precipitation. However, in DJF, a slight increase in the number and intensity of cyclones associated with strong wind speeds is found over the United Kingdom and central Europe. The results are confirmed under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, where the signals tend to be larger. The sources of uncertainty in these projections are discussed.