Inflammatory modulation of exercise salience: using hormesis to return to a healthy lifestyle

Most of the human population in the western world has access to unlimited calories and leads an increasingly sedentary lifestyle. The propensity to undertake voluntary exercise or indulge in spontaneous physical exercise, which might be termed "exercise salience", is drawing increased scientific attention. Despite its genetic aspects, this complex behaviour is clearly modulated by the environment and influenced by physiological states. Inflammation is often overlooked as one of these conditions even though it is known to induce a state of reduced mobility. Chronic subclinical inflammation is associated with the metabolic syndrome; a largely lifestyle-induced disease which can lead to decreased exercise salience. The result is a vicious cycle that increases oxidative stress and reduces metabolic flexibility and perpetuates the disease state. In contrast, hormetic stimuli can induce an anti-inflammatory phenotype, thereby enhancing exercise salience, leading to greater biological fitness and improved functional longevity. One general consequence of hormesis is upregulation of mitochondrial function and resistance to oxidative stress. Examples of hormetic factors include calorie restriction, extreme environmental temperatures, physical activity and polyphenols. The hormetic modulation of inflammation, and thus, exercise salience, may help to explain the highly heterogeneous expression of voluntary exercise behaviour and therefore body composition phenotypes of humans living in similar obesogenic environments.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Individual assets, market structure and the drivers of return

Much UK research and market practice on portfolio strategy and performance benchmarking relies on a sector‐geography subdivision of properties. Prior tests of the appropriateness of such divisions have generally relied on aggregated or hypothetical return data. However, the results found in aggregate may not hold when individual buildings are considered. This paper makes use of a dataset of individual UK property returns. A series of multivariate exploratory statistical techniques are utilised to test whether the return behaviour of individual properties conforms to their a priori grouping. The results suggest strongly that neither standard sector nor regional classifications provide a clear demarcation of individual building performance. This has important implications for both portfolio strategy and performance measurement and benchmarking. However, there do appear to be size and yield effects that help explain return behaviour at the property level.

Survival analysis statistics applied to threshold data obtained from the ascending forced-choice method of limits

Sensory thresholds are often collected through ascending forced-choice methods. Group thresholds are important for comparing stimuli or populations; yet, the method has two problems. An individual may correctly guess the correct answer at any concentration step and might detect correctly at low concentrations but become adapted or fatigued at higher concentrations. The survival analysis method deals with both issues. Individual sequences of incorrect and correct answers are adjusted, taking into account the group performance at each concentration. The technique reduces the chance probability where there are consecutive correct answers. Adjusted sequences are submitted to survival analysis to determine group thresholds. The technique was applied to an aroma threshold and a taste threshold study. It resulted in group thresholds similar to ASTM or logarithmic regression procedures. Significant differences in taste thresholds between younger and older adults were determined. The approach provides a more robust technique over previous estimation methods.

Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes

Climate models taking part in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) all predict a global mean sea level rise for the 21st century. Yet the sea level change is not spatially uniform and differs among models. Here we evaluate the role of air–sea fluxes of heat, water and momentum (windstress) to find the spatial pattern associated to each of them as well as the spread they can account for. Using one AOGCM to which we apply the surface flux changes from other AOGCMs, we show that the heat flux and windstress changes dominate both the pattern and the spread, but taking the freshwater flux into account as well yields a sea level change pattern in better agreement with the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Differences among the CMIP5 control ocean temperature fields have a smaller impact on the sea level change pattern.

Ethics of care in supporting disabled forced migrants: interactions with professionals and ethical dilemmas in health and social care in the South-East of England

This article explores the interactions between disabled forced migrants with care needs and professionals and the restrictive legal, policy and practice context that health and social care professionals have to confront, based on the findings of a qualitative study with 45 participants in the South-East of England. In-depth interviews were conducted with 15 forced migrants who had diverse impairments and chronic illnesses (8 women and 7 men), 13 family caregivers and 17 support workers and strategic professionals working in social care and the third sector in Slough, Reading and London. The legal status of forced migrants significantly affects their entitlements to health and social care provision, resulting in prolonged periods of destitution for many families. National asylum support policies, difficult working relationships with UK Border Agency, higher eligibility thresholds and reduced social care budgets of local authorities were identified as significant barriers in responding to the support needs of disabled forced migrants and family caregivers. In this context, social workers experienced considerable ethical dilemmas. The research raises profound questions about the potential and limitations of health and social care policies, provision, and practice as means of protection and support in fulfilling the human rights of forced migrants with care needs.

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods

Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications.

Widespread supplementary feeding in domestic gardens explains the return of reintroduced Red Kites Milvus milvus to an urban area

Reintroductions are used worldwide to mitigate biodiversity loss. One prominent case is a charismatic raptor of conservation concern, the Red Kite Milvus milvus. This species has been reintroduced across the UK over the last 25 years following its near extinction after centuries of persecution. The species was not expected to recolonize urban areas; its historical association with human settlements is attributed to scavenging on human waste and refuse, a resource now greatly reduced on the streets of modern Western cities. However, the species has become a common day-time visitor to a large conurbation centred on the town of Reading, southern England, approximately 20 km from the first English reintroduction site. Given a near-absence of breeding and roost sites, we investigated foraging opportunities and habitat associations that might explain use by Red Kites of this urban area. Surveys of discarded human foods and road-kill suggested that these could support at most 13−29 kites/day. Face-to-face surveys of a cross-section of residents revealed that 4.5% (equivalent to 4349 households) provided supplementary food for kites. Using estimates of per-household resource provision from another study, we calculated that this level is potentially sufficient to provision 142−320 kites, a substantial proportion of the total estimated to visit the conurbation each day (between 140 and 440). Road transects found positive associations between Red Kites and residential areas. We therefore suggest that the decision made by thousands of individuals to provide supplementary food for Red Kites is the primary factor explaining their day-time abundance in this urban area.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

Recovering the counterfactual wage distribution with selective return migration

This paper recovers the distribution of wages for Mexican-born workers living in the U.S. if no return migration of Mexican-born workers occurred. Because migrants self-select in the decision to return, the overarching problem addressed by this study is the use of an estimator that also accounts for selection on unobservables. I find that Mexican returnees are middle- to high-wage earners at all levels of educational attainment. Taking into account self-selection in return migration, wages would be approximately 7.7% higher at the median and 4.5% higher at the mean. Owing to positive self-selection, the immigrant-native wage gap would, therefore, partially close if there was no return migration.