Comparing the UK Met Office climate prediction system DePreSys with idealized predictability in the HadCM3 model

The initial condition effect on climate prediction skill over a 2-year hindcast time-scale has been assessed from ensemble HadCM3 climate model runs using anomaly initialization over the period 1990–2001, and making comparisons with runs without initialization (equivalent to climatological conditions), and to anomaly persistence. It is shown that the assimilation improves the prediction skill in the first year globally, and in a number of limited areas out into the second year. Skill in hindcasting surface air temperature anomalies is most marked over ocean areas, and is coincident with areas of high sea surface temperature and ocean heat content skill. Skill improvement over land areas is much more limited but is still detectable in some cases. We found little difference in the skill of hindcasts using three different sets of ocean initial conditions, and we obtained the best results by combining these to form a grand ensemble hindcast set. Results are also compared with the idealized predictability studies of Collins (Clim. Dynam. 2002; 19: 671–692), which used the same model. The maximum lead time for which initialization gives enhanced skill over runs without initialization varies in different regions but is very similar to lead times found in the idealized studies, therefore strongly supporting the process representation in the model as well as its use for operational predictions. The limited 12-year period of the study, however, means that the regional details of model skill should probably be further assessed under a wider range of observational conditions.

Effective communication to improve udder health: can social science help?

Improved udder health requires consistent application of appropriate management practices by those involved in managing dairy herds and the milking process. Designing effective communication requires that we understand why dairy herd managers behave in the way they do and also how the means of communication can be used both to inform and to influence. Social sciences- ranging from economics to anthropology - have been used to shed light on the behaviour of those who manage farm animals. Communication science tells us that influencing behaviour is not simply a question of „getting the message across‟ but of addressing the complex of factors that influence an individual‟s behavioural decisions. A review of recent studies in the animal health literature shows that different social science frameworks and methodologies offer complementary insights into livestock managers‟ behaviour but that the diversity of conceptual and methodological frameworks presents a challenge for animal health practitioners and policy makers who seek to make sense of the findings – and for researchers looking for helpful starting points. Data from a recent study in England illustrate the potential of „home-made‟ conceptual frameworks to help unravel the complexity of farmer behaviour. At the same time, though, the data indicate the difficulties facing those designing communication strategies in a context where farmers believe strongly that they are already doing all they can reasonably be expected to do to minimise animal health risks.

Farmers' management of rice varietal diversity in the mid-hills of Nepal: implications for on-farm conservation and crop improvement

Season-long monitoring of on-farm rice (Oryza sativa, L.) plots in Nepal explored farmers' decision-making process on the deployment of varieties to agroecosystems, application of production inputs to varieties, agronomic practices and relationship between economic return and area planted per variety. Farmers deploy varieties [landraces (LRs) and modern varieties (MVs)] to agroecosystems based on their understanding of characteristics of varieties and agroecosystems, and the interaction between them. In marginal growing conditions, LRs can compete with MVs. Within an agroecosystem, economic return and area planted to varieties have positive relationship, but this is not so between agroecosystems. LRs are very diverse on agronomic and economic traits; therefore, they cannot be rejected a priori as inferior materials without proper evaluation. LRs have to be evaluated for useful traits and utilized in breeding programmes to generate farmer-preferred materials for marginal environments and for their conservation on-farm.

Sleepwalking from New York to Miami

In the winter of 2007, Doug Aitken’s moving image installation, sleepwalkers, was projected onto the exterior walls of the Museum of Modern Art in New York. The project was a collaboration between Aitken, the museum and Creative Time, a New York-based organisation that commissions public art projects. A site-specific version of the installation has been commissioned by the Miami Art Museum for the opening of its new facility, designed by Swiss architects Herzog and de Meuron, in 2013: “sleepwalkers (Miami) will expand the work’s landscape and characters in a manner that reflects the diverse social fabric of Miami.” This essay examines sleepwalkers as an example of the emerging form of film as public art. There are three strands to my argument: first, an examination of the role of film in the redefinition of public art, shifting away from spatial practices concerned with fixed and permanent notions of space, community and art and towards transient and experimental spatial and artistic practices; second,a discussion of the relationship between projection and the built environment and the ways that the qualities of luminescence, transparency, movement and connectivity are transferred from projected images to the surfaces on which they are projected and the spaces around them; and third, an examination of the ways that sleepwalkers uses only certain aspects of narrativity, those concerned with movement and change, and avoids hermeneutic absorption in order to keep the spectators moving (transposing the idea of sleepwalking from characters to spectators). Transience and transparency are key ideas in the conceptualisation of the work, and these are deployed with significant differences in relation to the distinctive characteristics of each city and each museum.

Integrated Arable Farming Systems and their potential uptake in the UK

Integrated Arable Farming Systems are examined from the perspective of the farmer considering the use of such techniques, and data are presented which suggest that the uptake of the approach may expose the manager to a greater degree of risk. Observations are made about the possible uptake of such systems in the UK and the implications this may have for agricultural and environmental policy in general.

An analytical framework for appraising Integrated Arable Farming Systems

Integrated Arable Farming Systems are examined from the perspective of the farmer considering the use of such techniques, and data are presented which suggest that the uptake of the approach may expose the manager to a greater degree of risk. Observations are made about the possible uptake of such systems in the UK and the implications this may have for agricultural and environmental policy in general.

Therapygenetics: the 5HTTLPR and response to psychological therapy

Although pharmacogenetic research thrives,1 genetic determinants of response to purely psychotherapeutic treatments remain unexplored. In a sample of children undergoing cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for an anxiety disorder, we tested whether treatment response is associated with the serotonin transporter gene promoter region (5HTTLPR), previously shown to moderate environmental influences on depression.

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

The track nanotechnology

The discipline now called Solid State Nuclear Track Detection (SSNTD) dates back to 1958 and has its roots in the United Kingdom. Its strength stems chiefly from factors such as its simplicity, small geometry, permanent maintenance of the nuclear record and other diversified applications. A very important field with exciting applications reported recently in conjuction with the nuclear track technique is nanotechnology, which has applications in biology, chemistry, industry, medicare and health, information technology, biotechnology, and metallurgical and chemical technologies. Nanotechnology requires material design followed by the study of the quantum effects for final produced applications in sensors, medical diagnosis, information technology to name a few. We, in this article, present a review of past and present applications of SSNTD suggesting ways to apply the technique in nanotechnology, with special reference to development of nanostructure for applications utilising nanowires, nanofilters and sensors.

Cooperative patronage: The National Smallholder Farmers’ Association of Malawi in Kasungu District

This paper estimates the determinants of farmers’ decisions to join a rural producer organisation, the National Smallholder Farmers’ Association of Malawi (NASFAM), in Kasungu District. Data for the study were collected in June and August 2003 using household-level questionnaires and stratified random sampling, where strata were membership status and gender. Probit analysis of 250 farmers shows that off-farm sources of income, distance of the farmer’s household from Kasungu District centre, age of the farmer, tobacco farming, education, household level land holding and gender determined the decision to join NASFAM. These results suggest that farmers should be informed of the potential benefits of participating in rural development efforts, and that rural communication and information infrastructure should be improved so as to reduce the costs of information access and transactions in general, if participation in organisations such as NASFAM is to be enhanced.

Innovation clusters: key concepts

Innovation is easier to describe than it is to systematically analyse, and easier to analyse than it is to effectively promote. Part of the problem, of course, is the imprecise way in which the activity of innovation itself is conceptualised. To achieve more precision, the logic of analysis suggests that innovation should be should be systematically analysed and then divided into rough categories to produce a working taxonomy based on a number of key dimensions. A major part of the purpose of this paper is to develop such a working taxonomy.

Neurotrophic gene polymorphisms and response to psychological therapy

Therapygenetics, the study of genetic determinants of response to psychological therapies, is in its infancy. Here, we investigate whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms in nerve growth factor (NGF) (rs6330) and brain-derived neutrotrophic factor (BDNF) (rs6265) genes predict the response to cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT). Neurotrophic genes represent plausible candidate genes: they are implicated in synaptic plasticity, response to stress, and are widely expressed in brain areas involved in mood and cognition. Allelic variation at both loci has shown associations with anxiety-related phenotypes. A sample of 374 anxiety-disordered children with white European ancestry was recruited from clinics in Reading, UK, and in Sydney, Australia. Participants received manualised CBT treatment and DNA was collected from buccal cells using cheek swabs. Treatment response was assessed at post-treatment and follow-up time points. We report first evidence that children with one or more copies of the T allele of NGF rs6330 were significantly more likely to be free of their primary anxiety diagnosis at follow-up (OR=0.60 (0.42–0.85), P=0.005). These effects remained even when other clinically relevant covariates were accounted for (OR=0.62 (0.41–0.92), P=0.019). No significant associations were observed between BDNF rs6265 and response to psychological therapy. These findings demonstrate that knowledge of genetic markers has the potential to inform clinical treatment decisions for psychotherapeutic interventions.