Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Density functional theory study of rutile VO2 surfaces

We present the results of a density functional theory (DFT) investigation of the surfaces of rutile-like vanadium dioxide, VO2(R). We calculate the surface energies of low Miller index planes, and find that the most stable surface orientation is the (110). The equilibrium morphology of a VO2(R) particle has an acicular shape, laterally confined by (110) planes and topped by (011) planes. The redox properties of the (110) surface are investigated by calculating the relative surface free energies of the non-stoichiometric compositions as a function of oxygen chemical potential. It is found that the VO2(110) surface is oxidized with respect to the stoichiometric composition, not only at ambient conditions but also at the more reducing conditions under which bulk VO2 is stable in comparison with bulk V2O5. The adsorbed oxygen forms surface vanadyl species much more favorably than surface peroxo species.

Success and failure of grassroots innovations for addressing climate change: the case of the Transition Movement

Grassroots innovations emerge as networks generating innovative solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, it is unclear if grassroots innovations can be successful in responding to climate change. Little evidence exists on replication, international comparisons are rare, and research tends to overlook discontinued responses in favour of successful ones. We take the Transition Movement as a case study of a rapidly spreading transnational grassroots network, and include both active and non-active local transition initiatives. We investigate the replication of grassroots innovations in different contexts with the aim to uncover general patterns of success and failure, and identify questions for future research. An online survey was carried out in 23 countries (N=276). The data analysis entailed testing the effect of internal and contextual factors of success as drawn from the existing literature, and the identification of clusters of transition initiatives with similar internal and contextual factor configurations. Most transition initiatives consider themselves successful. Success is defined along the lines of social connectivity and empowerment, and external environmental impact. We find that less successful transition initiatives might underestimate the importance of contextual factors and material resources in influencing success. We also find that their diffusion is linked to the combination of local-global learning processes, and that there is an incubation period during which a transition initiative is consolidated. Transition initiatives seem capable of generalising organisational principles derived from unique local experiences that seem to be effective in other local contexts. However, the geographical locations matter with regard to where transition initiatives take root and the extent of their success, and ‘place attachment’ may have a role in the diffusion of successful initatives. We suggest that longitudinal comparative studies can advance our understanding in this regard, as well as inform the changing nature of the definition of success at different stages of grassroots innovation development, and the dynamic nature of local and global linkages.

Probiotic administration attenuates myocardial hypertrophy and heart failure following myocardial infarction in the rat

Background—Probiotics are extensively used to promote gastrointestinal health and emerging evidence suggests that their beneficial properties can extend beyond the local environment of the gut. Here, we determined whether oral probiotic administration can alter the progression of post-infarction heart failure. Methods and Results—Rats were subjected to six weeks of sustained coronary artery occlusion and administered the probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 or placebo in the drinking water ad libitum. Culture and 16s rRNA sequencing showed no evidence of GR-1 colonization or a significant shift in the composition of the cecal microbiome. However, animals administered GR-1 exhibited a significant attenuation of left ventricular hypertrophy based on tissue weight assessment as well as gene expression of atrial natriuretic peptide. Moreover, these animals demonstrated improved hemodynamic parameters reflecting both improved systolic and diastolic left ventricular function. Serial echocardiography revealed significantly improved left ventricular parameters throughout the six week follow-up period including a marked preservation of left ventricular ejection fraction as well as fractional shortening. Beneficial effects of GR-1 were still evident in those animals in which GR-1 was withdrawn at four weeks suggesting persistence of the GR-1 effects following cessation of therapy. Investigation of mechanisms showed a significant increase in the leptin to adiponectin plasma concentration ratio in rats subjected to coronary ligation which was abrogated by GR-1. Metabonomic analysis showed differences between sham control and coronary artery ligated hearts particularly with respect to preservation of myocardial taurine levels. Conclusions—The study suggests that probiotics offer promise as a potential therapy for the attenuation of heart failure.

The effect of light exposure on the degradation of latent fingerprints on brass surfaces: the use of silver electroless deposition as a visualization technique

We have studied the degradation of sebaceous fingerprints on brass surfaces using silver electroless deposition (SED) as a visualization technique. We have stored fingerprints on brass squares either (i) in a locked dark cupboard or (ii) in glass-filtered natural daylight for periods of 3 h, 24 h, 1 week, 3 weeks, and 6 weeks. We find that fingerprints on brass surfaces degrade much more rapidly when kept in the light than they do under dark conditions with a much higher proportion of high-quality prints found after 3 or 6 weeks of aging when stored in the dark. This process is more marked than for similar fingerprints on black PVC surfaces. Identifiable prints can be achieved on brass surfaces using both SED and cyanoacrylate fuming (CFM). SED is quick and straightforward to perform. CFM is more time-consuming but is versatile and can be applied to a wider range of metal surfaces than SED, for example brass surfaces which have been coated by a lacquer.

A DFT study of the structures, stabilities and redox behaviour of the major surfaces of magnetite Fe3O4

The renewed interest in magnetite (Fe3O4) as a major phase in different types of catalysts has led us to study the oxidation–reduction behaviour of its most prominent surfaces. We have employed computer modelling techniques based on the density functional theory to calculate the geometries and surface free energies of a number of surfaces at different compositions, including the stoichiometric plane, and those with a deficiency or excess of oxygen atoms. The most stable surfaces are the (001) and (111), leading to a cubic Fe3O4 crystal morphology with truncated corners under equilibrium conditions. The scanning tunnelling microscopy images of the different terminations of the (001) and (111) stoichiometric surfaces were calculated and compared with previous reports. Under reducing conditions, the creation of oxygen vacancies in the surface leads to the formation of reduced Fe species in the surface in the vicinity of the vacant oxygen. The (001) surface is slightly more prone to reduction than the (111), due to the higher stabilisation upon relaxation of the atoms around the oxygen vacancy, but molecular oxygen adsorbs preferentially at the (111) surface. In both oxidized surfaces, the oxygen atoms are located on bridge positions between two surface iron atoms, from which they attract electron density. The oxidised state is thermodynamically favourable with respect to the stoichiometric surfaces under ambient conditions, although not under the conditions when bulk Fe3O4 is thermodynamically stable with respect to Fe2O3. This finding is important in the interpretation of the catalytic properties of Fe3O4 due to the presence of oxidised species under experimental conditions.

Emulation of chiral hydrogenation catalysts by adsorbtion of small molecules onto Ni surfaces

Adsorption of small molecules on the Ni{111} and NiO{111} surfaces is investigated under UHV and elevated pressures (~10-1 mbar) of hydrogen and water. The molecules considered are chosen for their relevance to understanding the mechanism of enantioselective hydrogenation on Raney Nickel modified by chiral molecules. Adsorption of water onto, and its subsequent reaction with, oxygen-covered Ni{111} is dependent on the initial atomic oxygen coverage. An OH species (O1s binding energy 531.5eV), oriented perpendicular to the surface, forms at atomic oxygen coverages <0.25ML. The reaction does not consume all the adsorbed oxygen for coverages ≥0.12ML. The p(2×2) atomic oxygen uperstructure is unreactive, while an OH species is formed on the p(√3×√3) superstructure at binding energy 530.9eV. L-alanine is adsorbed on Ni{111} as a model chiral modifier molecule. At low coverages, alanine forms a presumed tridentate alaninate species for coverages ≥0.11ML at 250K. A minority, bidentate zwitterionic species forms at coverages >0.11ML, but was not observed at 300K. Saturation occurs at 0.25ML. At high alanine coverages (≥0.19ML) and H2 pressure (≥1×10-2 mbar), the tridentate L-alaninate converts to bidentate zwitterionic L-alanine at 300K. Thermal evolution of L-alanine on Ni{111} under varying hydrogen pressures is examined. Adsorption of L-alanine onto hydroxylated NiO{111} at 300K in UHV, mimicking a catalyst surface under aqueous conditions, yields the tridentate alaninate which is immune to the effects of elevated hydrogen pressure. Exposing the L-alanine/Ni{111} adsorption system to water (≤10-1 mbar) oxidises the surface and recreates the L-alanine/hydroxylated NiO{111} system. Pyruvic acid on Ni{111} is examined as a model for hydrogenation substrate adsorption. Behaviour is coverage dependent and several conformations are possible at low coverages (≤0.1ML). Annealing at coverages <0.2ML causes a condensation reaction, releasing water onto the surface. High coverages do not condense and a saturation coverage of ~0.35ML is found.

Experiential learning from entrepreneurial failure

This paper examines the phenomenon of 'entrepreneurial failure' from a UK regionally-based qualitative study, being that of explanations for failure provided by entrepreneurial CEOs. This paper contends that there are valuable lessons to be learned, from explanations provided of failure, that may reduce the very high recorded mortality rates of entrepreneurial businesses, in particular that of nascent entrepreneurs. Our intention is to make nascent entrepreneurs and their advisors more aware of the consequences of the likely personal risks they will be assuming, especially before they embark on their new business ventures. This paper focuses strongly on entrepreneurial 'personality characteristics' which can detrimentally influence the quality of decision-making. We provide data of some 'experiential learning from failure' from our case studies, that were compiled from interviews with the former directors, following their completion of the questionnaire survey. We describe 'failed entrepreneurs' who have successfully restarted their businesses as 'phoenix' entrepreneurs.

The atomic structure of low-index surfaces of the intermetallic compound InPd

The intermetallic compound InPd (CsCl type of crystal structure with a broad compositional range) is considered as a candidate catalyst for the steam reforming of methanol. Single crystals of this phase have been grown to study the structure of its three low-index surfaces under ultra-high vacuum conditions, using low energy electron diffraction (LEED), X-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). During surface preparation, preferential sputtering leads to a depletion of In within the top few layers for all three surfaces. The near-surface regions remain slightly Pd-rich until annealing to ∼580 K. A transition occurs between 580 and 660 K where In segregates towards the surface and the near-surface regions become slightly In-rich above ∼660 K. This transition is accompanied by a sharpening of LEED patterns and formation of flat step-terrace morphology, as observed by STM. Several superstructures have been identified for the different surfaces associated with this process. Annealing to higher temperatures (≥750 K) leads to faceting via thermal etching as shown for the (110) surface, with a bulk In composition close to the In-rich limit of the existence domain of the cubic phase. The Pd-rich InPd(111) is found to be consistent with a Pd-terminated bulk truncation model as shown by dynamical LEED analysis while, after annealing at higher temperature, the In-rich InPd(111) is consistent with an In-terminated bulk truncation, in agreement with density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the relative surface energies. More complex surface structures are observed for the (100) surface. Additionally, individual grains of a polycrystalline sample are characterized by micro-spot XPS and LEED as well as low-energy electron microscopy. Results from both individual grains and “global” measurements are interpreted based on comparison to our single crystals findings, DFT calculations and previous literature.

Entrepreneurial failure and economic crisis: an historical perspective

This chapter analyses the major UK economic crises that have occurred since the speculative bubbles of the seventeenth century. It integrates insights from economic history and business history to analyse both the general economic conditions and the specific business and financial practices that led to these crises. The analysis suggests a significant reinterpretation of the evidence – one that questions economists’ conventional views.

Activation of c-Jun N-terminal kinases and p38-mitogen-activated protein kinases in human heart failure secondary to ischaemic heart disease.

Three well-characterized mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) subfamilies are expressed in rodent and rabbit hearts, and are activated by pathophysiological stimuli. We have determined and compared the expression and activation of these MAPKs in donor and failing human hearts. The amount and activation of MAPKs was assessed in samples from the left ventricles of 4 unused donor hearts and 12 explanted hearts from patients with heart failure secondary to ischaemic heart disease. Total MAPKs or dually phosphorylated (activated) MAPKs were detected by Western blotting and MAPK activities were measured by in gel kinase assays. As in rat heart, c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs) were detected in human hearts as bands corresponding to 46 and 54 kDa; p38-MAPK(s) was detected as a band corresponding to approximately 40 kDa, and extracellularly regulated kinases, ERK1 and ERK2, were detected as 44- and 42-kDa bands respectively. The total amounts of 54 kDa JNK, p38-MAPK and ERK2 were similar in all samples, although 46-kDa JNK was reduced in the failing hearts. However, the mean activities of JNKs and p38-MAPK(s) were significantly higher in failing heart samples than in those from donor hearts (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in phosphorylated (activated) ERKs between the two groups. In conclusion, JNKs, p38-MAPK(s) and ERKs are expressed in the human heart and the activities of JNKs and p38-MAPK(s) were increased in heart failure secondary to ischaemic heart disease. These data indicate that JNKs and p38-MAPKs may be important in human cardiac pathology.

Scalable and fault tolerant failure detection and consensus

Future extreme-scale high-performance computing systems will be required to work under frequent component failures. The MPI Forum's User Level Failure Mitigation proposal has introduced an operation, MPI_Comm_shrink, to synchronize the alive processes on the list of failed processes, so that applications can continue to execute even in the presence of failures by adopting algorithm-based fault tolerance techniques. This MPI_Comm_shrink operation requires a fault tolerant failure detection and consensus algorithm. This paper presents and compares two novel failure detection and consensus algorithms. The proposed algorithms are based on Gossip protocols and are inherently fault-tolerant and scalable. The proposed algorithms were implemented and tested using the Extreme-scale Simulator. The results show that in both algorithms the number of Gossip cycles to achieve global consensus scales logarithmically with system size. The second algorithm also shows better scalability in terms of memory and network bandwidth usage and a perfect synchronization in achieving global consensus.

Self-assembled arginine-capped peptide bolaamphiphile nanosheets for cell culture and controlled wettability surfaces

The spontaneous assembly of a peptide bolaamphiphile in water, namely, RFL4FR (R, arginine; F, phenylalanine; L, leucine) is investigated, along with its novel properties in surface modification and usage as substrates for cell culture. RFL4FR self-assembles into nanosheets through lateral association of the peptide backbone. The L4 sequence is located within the core of the nanosheets, whereas the R moieties are exposed to the water at the surface of the nanosheets. Kinetic assays indicate that the self-assembly is driven by a remarkable two-step process, where a nucleation phase is followed by fast growth of nanosheets with an autocatalysis process. The internal structure of the nanosheets is formed from ultrathin bolaamphiphile monolayers with a crystalline orthorhombic symmetry with cross-β organization. We show that human corneal stromal fibroblast (hCSF) cells can grow on polystyrene films coated with films dried from RFL4FR solutions. For the first time, this type of amphiphilic peptide is used as a substrate to modulate the wettability of solid surfaces for cell culture applications.