A simple framework for assessing the trade-off between the climate impact of aviation carbon dioxide emissions and contrails for a single flight

Persistent contrails are an important climate impact of aviation which could potentially be reduced by re-routing aircraft to avoid contrailing; however this generally increases both the flight length and its corresponding CO emissions. Here, we provide a simple framework to assess the trade-off between the climate impact of CO emissions and contrails for a single flight, in terms of the absolute global warming potential and absolute global temperature potential metrics for time horizons of 20, 50 and 100 years. We use the framework to illustrate the maximum extra distance (with no altitude changes) that can be added to a flight and still reduce its overall climate impact. Small aircraft can fly up to four times further to avoid contrailing than large aircraft. The results have a strong dependence on the applied metric and time horizon. Applying a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in the contrail radiative forcing and climate efficacy leads to a factor of 20 difference in the maximum extra distance that could be flown to avoid a contrail. The impact of re-routing on other climatically-important aviation emissions could also be considered in this framework.

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants.

Evaluation of the trade development strategies of UKTI Sectors Group: Stage 2

An evaluation of the activities of UK Trade & Investment's Sectors Group. It assessed the contribution of trade development activities to high-level objectives such as productivity growth and critically examined the rationale for interventions.

Stencil dies: new tools for an old trade

Traces the invention and development of stencil dies in the USA in the middle decades of the nineteenth century, focussing on the work of M. J. Metcalf, A. J. Fullam, and S. M. Spencer.

Privatisation and cross-border electricity trade: from internal market to European Supergrid?

he perspective European Supergrid would consist of an integrated power system network, where electricity demands from one country could be met by generation from another country. This paper makes use of a bi-linear fixed-effects model to analyse the determinants for trading electricity across borders among 34 countries connected by the European Supergrid. The key question that this paper aims to address is the extent to which the privatisation of European electricity markets has brought about higher cross-border trade of electricity. The analysis makes use of distance, price ratios, gate closure times, size of peaks and aggregate demand as standard determinants. Controlling for other standard determinants, it is concluded that privatisation in most cases led to higher power exchange and that the benefits are more significant where privatisation measures have been in place for a longer period.

Selection experiments reveal trade-offs between swimming and twitching motilities in pseudomonas aeruginosa

Bacteria possess a range of mechanisms to move in different environments, and these mechanisms have important direct and correlated impacts on the virulence of opportunistic pathogens. Bacteria use two surface organelles to facilitate motility: a single polar flagellum, and type IV pili, enabling swimming in aqueous habitats and twitching along hard surfaces, respectively. Here, we address whether there are trade-offs between these motility mechanisms, and hence whether different environments could select for altered motility. We experimentally evolved initially isogenic Pseudomonas aeruginosa under conditions that favored the different types of motility, and found evidence for a trade-off mediated by antagonistic pleiotropy between swimming and twitching. Moreover, changes in motility resulted in correlated changes in other behaviors, including biofilm formation and growth within an insect host. This suggests environmental origins of a particular motile opportunistic pathogen could predictably influence motility and virulence

Strategic trade policy, competition, and welfare: the case of voluntary export restraints between Britain and Japan (1971–2002)

I evaluate the voluntary export restraint placed on Japanese automobile exports from 1977 to 1999 by the UK. I show that the policy failed to assist the British domestic car industry. Instead, UK-based US multi-nationals and Japanese manufacturers were the primary beneficiaries, at a substantial cost to UK consumers. Whilst there are a number of caveats, the policy was on balance damaging to the UK economy in welfare terms.

Firms in international trade: importers’ and exporters’ heterogeneity in Italian manufacturing industry

Combining data on structural characteristics and economic performance for a large sample of Italian firms with data on exporting and importing activity, we uncover evidence supporting recent theories on firm heterogeneity and international trade, together with some new facts. In particular, we find that importing is associated with substantial firm heterogeneity. First, we document that trade is more concentrated than employment and sales, and show that importing is even more concentrated than exporting both within sectors and along the sector- and country-extensive margins. Second, while supporting the fact that firms involved in both are the best performers, we also find that firms involved only in importing activities perform better than those involved only in exporting. Our evidence suggests there is a strong self-selection effect in the case of importers and the performance premia of internationalised firms correlate relatively more with the degree of geographical and sectoral diversification of imports.

Balkanisation of banking damages international trade and UK GDP

Balkanisation is a way to describe the breakdown of cross-border banking, as nervous lenders retreat in particular from the more troubled parts of the Eurozone or at least try to isolate operations within national boundaries. It is increasing at the Bank level, however the senior policy makers consider this a negative trend – Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has talked of the need to “repair this financial fragmentation” and Mark Carney, head of global regulatory body the Financial Stability Board, [and now Governor of the Bank of England] has warned that deglobalising finance will hurt growth and jobs by “reducing financial capacity and systemic resilience”. In this article I would like to examine the impact of banking balkanisation on international trade and provide some initial thoughts about remedies for excessive risk in a banking non-balkanising world.