Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Autobiographical memory, autonoetic consciousness, and identity in Asperger syndrome

Previous results from research on individuals with Asperger syndrome (AS) suggest a diminished ability for recalling episodic autobiographical memory (AM). The primary aim of this study was to explore autobiographical memory in individuals with Asperger syndrome and specifically to investigate whether memories in those with AS are characterized by fewer episodic 'remembered' events (due to a deficit in autonoetic consciousness). A further aim was to examine whether such changes in AM might also be related to changes in identity, due to the close relationship between memory and the self and to the established differences in self-referential processes in AS. Eleven adults with AS and fifteen matched comparison participants were asked to recall autobiographical memories from three lifetime periods and for each memory to give either a remember response (autonoetic consciousness) or a know response (noetic consciousness). The pattern of results shows that AS participants recalled fewer memories and that these memories were more often rated as known, compared to the comparison group. AS participants also showed differences in reported identity, generating fewer social identity statements and more abstract, trait-linked identities. The data support the view that differences in both memory and reported personal identities in AS are characterized by a lack of specificity.