Chaos in foreign exchange markets: a sceptical view

This paper tests directly for deterministic chaos in a set of ten daily Sterling-denominated exchange rates by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent. Although in an earlier paper, strong evidence of nonlinearity has been shown, chaotic tendencies are noticeably absent from all series considered using this state-of-the-art technique. Doubt is cast on many recent papers which claim to have tested for the presence of chaos in economic data sets, based on what are argued here to be inappropriate techniques.

A measure of persistence in daily pound exchange rates

An alternative procedure to that of Lo is proposed for assessing whether there is significant evidence of persistence in time series. The technique estimates the Hurst exponent itself, and significance testing is based on an application of bootstrapping using surrogate data. The method is applied to a set of 10 daily pound exchange rates. A general lack of long-term memory is found to characterize all the series tested, in sympathy with the findings of a number of other recent papers which have used Lo's techniques.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment Part II: impact of spatial heterogeneity of the surface

The centre of cities, characterised by spatial and temporal complexity, are challenging environments for micrometeorological research. This paper considers the impact of sensor location and heterogeneity of the urban surface on flux observations in the dense city centre of London, UK. Data gathered at two sites in close vicinity, but with different measurement heights, were analysed to investigate the influence of source area characteristics on long-term radiation and turbulent heat fluxes. Combining consideration of diffuse radiation and effects of specular reflections, the non-Lambertian urban surface is found to impact the measurements of surface albedo. Comparisons of observations from the two sites reveal that turbulent heat fluxes are similar under some flow conditions. However, they mostly observe processes at different scales due to their differing measurement heights, highlighting the critical impact of siting sensors in urban areas. A detailed source area analysis is presented to investigate the surface controls influencing the energy exchanges at the different scales

Urban integrated meteorological observations: practice and experience in Shanghai, China

Observations of atmospheric conditions and processes in citiesare fundamental to understanding the interactions between the urban surface and weather/climate, improving the performance of urban weather, air quality and climate models, and providing key information for city end-users (e.g. decision-makers, stakeholders, public). In this paper, Shanghai's urban integrated meteorological observation network (SUIMON) and some examples of intended applications are introduced. Its characteristics include being: multi- purpose (e.g. forecast, research, service), multi-function (high impact weather, city climate, special end-users), multi-scale (e.g. macro/meso-, urban-, neighborhood, street canyon), multi-variable (e.g. thermal, dynamic, chemical, bio-meteorological, ecological), and multi- platform (e.g. radar, wind profiler, ground-based, satellite based, in-situ observation/ sampling). Underlying SUIMON is a data management system to facilitate exchange of data and information. The overall aim of the network is to improve coordination strategies and instruments; to identify data gaps based on science and user driven requirements; and to intelligently combine observations from a variety of platforms by using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the urban atmosphere.

Dynamic auroral structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp - multipoint observations during southward and northward IMF

The low- and high-latitude boundary layers of the earth's magnetosphere [low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and mantle] play important roles in transferring momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Particle precipitation, field-aligned current, auroral emission, ionospheric ion drift and ground magnetic perturbations are among the low-altitude parameters that show signatures of various plasma processes in the LLBL and the magnetopause current layer. Magnetic merging events, Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, and pressure pulses excited by the variable solar wind/magnetosheath plasma are examples of boundary phenomena that may be coupled to the ionosphere via field-aligned currents. Optical auroral observation, by photometry and all-sky TV cameras, is a unique technique for investigating the spatial and temporal structure of the electron precipitation associated with such phenomena. However, the distinction between the different boundary layer plasma populations cannot in general be unambiguously determined by optics alone. Additional information, such as satellite observations of particle boundaries and field-aligned currents, is needed in order to identify the plasma source(s) and the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mode(s). Two categories of auroral activity/structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp are discussed in this paper, based on combined ground and satellite data. In one case, the quasi-periodic sequence of auroral events at the polar cap boundary involves accelerated electrons (< 1 keV) moving poleward (< 1 km s-1) and azimuthally along the persistent cusp/cleft arc poleward boundary with velocities (< 4 km s-1), comparable to the local ionospheric ion drift during periods of southward IMF. A critical question is whether or not the optical events signify a corresponding plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary in such cases. Near-simultaneous observations of magnetopause flux transfer events (FTEs) and such optical/ion drift events are reported. The reverse pattern of motion of discrete auroral forms is observed during positive interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(Z), i.e. equatorward motion into the cusp/cleft background arc from the poleward edge. Combined satellite and ground-based information for the latter cases indicate a source mechanism, poleward of the cusp at the high-latitude magnetopause or plasma mantle, giving rise to strong momentum transfer and electron precipitation structures within a approximately 200 km-wide latitudinal zone at the cusp/cleft poleward boundary. The striking similarities of auroral electrodynamics in the cleft/mantle region during northward and southward IMF indicate that a qualitatively similar solar wind-magnetosphere coupling mode is operating. It is suggested that, in both cases, the discrete auroral forms represent temporal/spatial structure of larger-scale convection over the polar magnetosphere.

A dynamic mechanistic model of lactic acid metabolism in the rumen

Current feed evaluation systems for ruminants are too imprecise to describe diets in terms of their acidosis risk. The dynamic mechanistic model described herein arises from the integration of a lactic acid (La) metabolism module into an extant model of whole-rumen function. The model was evaluated using published data from cows and sheep fed a range of diets or infused with various doses of La. The model performed well in simulating peak rumen La concentrations (coefficient of determination = 0.96; root mean square prediction error = 16.96% of observed mean), although frequency of sampling for the published data prevented a comprehensive comparison of prediction of time to peak La accumulation. The model showed a tendency for increased La accumulation following feeding of diets rich in nonstructural carbohydrates, although less-soluble starch sources such as corn tended to limit rumen La concentration. Simulated La absorption from the rumen remained low throughout the feeding cycle. The competition between bacteria and protozoa for rumen La suggests a variable contribution of protozoa to total La utilization. However, the model was unable to simulate the effects of defaunation on rumen La metabolism, indicating a need for a more detailed description of protozoal metabolism. The model could form the basis of a feed evaluation system with regard to rumen La metabolism.

Arable crop rotations under abiotic stress: a dynamic economic model

Break crops and multi-crop rotations are common in arable farm management, and the soil quality inherited from a previous crop is one of the parameters that determine the gross margin that is achieved with a given crop from a given parcel of land. In previous work we developed a dynamic economic model to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios, and we reported use of the model to calculate coexistence costs for GM maize grown in a crop rotation. The model predicts economic effects of pest and weed pressures in monthly time steps. Validation of the model in respect of specific traits is proceeding as data from trials with novel crop varieties is published. Alongside this aspect of the validation process, we are able to incorporate data representing the economic impact of abiotic stresses on conventional crops, and then use the model to predict the cumulative gross margin achievable from a sequence of conventional crops grown at varying levels of abiotic stress. We report new progress with this aspect of model validation. In this paper, we report the further development of the model to take account of abiotic stress arising from drought, flood, heat or frost; such stresses being introduced in addition to variable pest and weed pressure. The main purpose is to assess the economic incentive for arable farmers to adopt novel crop varieties having multiple ‘stacked’ traits introduced by means of various biotechnological tools available to crop breeders.

Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

Memory and burstiness in dynamic networks

A discrete-time random process is described, which can generate bursty sequences of events. A Bernoulli process, where the probability of an event occurring at time t is given by a fixed probability x, is modified to include a memory effect where the event probability is increased proportionally to the number of events that occurred within a given amount of time preceding t. For small values of x the interevent time distribution follows a power law with exponent −2−x. We consider a dynamic network where each node forms, and breaks connections according to this process. The value of x for each node depends on the fitness distribution, \rho(x), from which it is drawn; we find exact solutions for the expectation of the degree distribution for a variety of possible fitness distributions, and for both cases where the memory effect either is, or is not present. This work can potentially lead to methods to uncover hidden fitness distributions from fast changing, temporal network data, such as online social communications and fMRI scans.

Impact of Interbasin Exchange on the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

The ther mohaline exchange between the Atlantic and the Souther n Ocean is analyzed, using a dataset based on WOCE hydrographic data. It is shown that the salt and heat transports brought about by the South Atlantic subtropical gyre play an essential role in the Atlantic heat and salt budgets. It is found that on average the exported North Atlantic Deep W ater (NADW) is fresher than the retur n flows (basically composed of ther mocline and inter mediate water), indicating that the overtur ning circulation (OC) exports freshwater from the Atlantic. The sensitivity of the OC to interbasin fluxes of heat and salt is studied in a 2 D model, representing the Atlantic between 60 8 N and 30 8 S. The model is forced by mixed boundar y conditions at the sur face, and by realistic fluxes of heat and salt at its 30 8 S boundar y. The model circulation tur ns out to be ver y sensitive to net buoyancy fluxes through the sur face. Both net sur face cooling and net sur face saltening are sources of potential energy and impact positively on the circulation strength. The vertical distributions of the lateral fluxes tend to stabilize the stratification, and, as they extract potential energy from the system, tend to weaken the flow . These results imply that a change in the composition of the NADW retur n transports, whether by a change in the ratio ther mocline/inter mediate water , o r by a change in their ther mohaline characteristics, might influence the Atlantic OC considerably . It is also shown that the circulation is much more sensitive to changes in the shape of the lateral buoyancy flux than to changes in the shape of the sur face buoyancy flux, as the latter does not explicitly impact on the potential energy of the system. It is concluded that interocean fluxes of heat and salt are important for the strength and operation of the Atlantic ther mohaline circulation, and should be correctly represented in models that are used for climate sensitivity studies.