Intrinsic chess rating

This paper develops and tests formulas for representing playing strength at chess by the quality of moves played, rather than by the results of games. Intrinsic quality is estimated via evaluations given by computer chess programs run to high depth, ideally so that their playing strength is sufficiently far ahead of the best human players as to be a `relatively omniscient' guide. Several formulas, each having intrinsic skill parameters s for `sensitivity' and c for `consistency', are argued theoretically and tested by regression on large sets of tournament games played by humans of varying strength as measured by the internationally standard Elo rating system. This establishes a correspondence between Elo rating and the parameters. A smooth correspondence is shown between statistical results and the century points on the Elo scale, and ratings are shown to have stayed quite constant over time. That is, there has been little or no `rating inflation'. The theory and empirical results are transferable to other rational-choice settings in which the alternatives have well-defined utilities, but in which complexity and bounded information constrain the perception of the utility values.

Goal-refinement appraisal of soft projects (GRASP)

Industrial projects are often complex and burdened with time pressures and a lack of information. The term 'soft-project' used here stands for projects where the ‘what’ and/or the ‘how’ is uncertain, which is often the experience in projects involving software intensive systems developments. This thesis intertwines the disciplines of project management and requirements engineering in a goal-oriented application of the maxim ‘keep all objectives satisfied’. It thus proposes a method for appraising projects. In this method, a goal-oriented analysis establishes a framework with which expert judgements are collected so as to construct a confidence profile in regard to the feasibility and adequacy of the project's planned outputs. It is hoped that this appraisal method will contribute to the activities of project ‘shaping’ and aligning stakeholders’ expectations whilst helping project managers appreciate what parts of their project can be progressed and what parts should be held pending further analysis. This thesis offers the following original contribution: an appreciation of appraisal in the project context; a goal-oriented confidence profiling technique; and: a technique to produce goal-refinement diagrams – referred to as Goal Sketching. Collectively these amount to a method for the ‘Goal Refinement Appraisal of Soft-Projects’ (GRASP). The validity of the GRASP method is shown for two projects. In the first it is used for shaping a business investigation project. This is done in real-time in the project. The second case is a retrospective study of an enterprise IT project. This case tests the effectiveness of forecasting project difficulty from an initial confidence profile.

A method for assessing confidence in requirements analysis

Context: During development managers, analysts and designers often need to know whether enough requirements analysis work has been done and whether or not it is safe to proceed to the design stage. Objective: This paper describes a new, simple and practical method for assessing our confidence in a set of requirements. Method: We identified 4 confidence factors and used a goal oriented framework with a simple ordinal scale to develop a method for assessing confidence. We illustrate the method and show how it has been applied to a real systems development project. Results: We show how assessing confidence in the requirements could have revealed problems in this project earlier and so saved both time and money. Conclusion: Our meta-level assessment of requirements provides a practical and pragmatic method that can prove useful to managers, analysts and designers who need to know when sufficient requirements analysis has been performed.

Conformational polymorphism of the molecular complex of 3-fluorobenzoic acid with 4-acetylpyridine

Two polymorphs of the molecular complex formed between 3-fluorobenzoic acid with 4-acetylpyridine are described and found to be based upon the same dimeric supramolecular construct. The conformational freedom around the hydrogen bond results in a 180 degrees rotation about this intermolecular link, distinguishing the polymorphs and affecting the packing of the dimeric units. The two polymorphs are fully characterised by single crystal X-ray and neutron diffraction and quantum mechanical calculations. There is evidence of structured crystal growth defects in both polymorphic crystals via observation of diffuse scattering and a disorder model for the average structure of Form I, which can be interpreted as a mixing of the two dimer conformations. The similarity of energy of the distinct dimeric units, supporting their likely co-existence, has been verified by periodic quantum chemical calculations.

Carbamazepine trifluoroacetic acid solvate

Carbamazepine forms a 1:1 solvate with trifluoroacetic acid (systematic name: 5H-dibenzo[b,f] azepine-5-carboxamide trifluoroacetic acid solvate), C(15)H(12)N(2)O center dot C(2)HF(3)O(2). The compound crystallizes with one molecule of carbamazepine and one of trifluoroacetic acid in the asymmetric unit to form an R(2)(2)(8) motif. The solvent molecule is disordered over two sites, with site-occupancy factors 0.53 (1) and 0.47 (1).

Synthesis and X-ray crystal structure of the triethylammonium magnesium β-octamolybdate(VI)salt[Et3NH]2[Mg(H2O)6Mo8O26]·2H2O

[Et3NH]4[Mo8O26] reacted with MgCl2 giving the triethylammonum magnesium β-octamolybdate(VI) salt [Et3NH]2[Mg(H2O)6Mo8O26]·2H2O (3) and the triethylammonium hydronium β-octaamolybdate(VI) salt [Et3NH]3[(H3O)Mo8O26·2H2O (4), respectively. A small amount of [Et3NH]2[Mo6O269] was formed as a by-product. The salts 3 and 4 were characterized by X-ray crystallography. The [Mg(H2O)6Mo8O26]2− moiety in 3 is polymeric, with each octahedral [Mg(H2O)6]2+ ion sandwiched between two β[Mo8O26]4− ions, being hydrogen bonded to three terminal MOO oxygen atoms on one face of each β[Mo8O26]4− ion. The X-ray crystal structure of 4 corresponds to the reported previously. IR and conductivity data are given for 3 and 4.

Synthesis and reactions of [Et3NH]4[Mo8O6]: X-ray crystal structure of [Et3NH]3[NaMo8O26]

[Et3NH]4[Mo8O26] (1) was prepared by reacting triethylamine with either molybdenum trioxide dihydrate or with a solution of ammonium molybdate in aqueous HCl. An aqueous solution of complex 1 reacted with an excess of sodium chloride to give a mixture of [Et3NH]3[NaMo8O26] (2) and [Et3NH]2[Mo6O19] (3). Complex 2 was also formed on reacting sodium molybdate with triethylamine in aqueous HCl. In the reaction of 1 with potassium chloride the nature of the product obtained was critically dependent upon reaction time. After a 5.5 h reflux period a mixture of [Et3NH]3[KMo8O26] (4) and 3 was obtained, whereas upon prolonged reflux (24 h) only K4Mo8O26 · H2O (5) was precipitated. The X-ray crystal structure of 2 shows it to be polymeric, with each Na+ ion sandwiched between two β[Mo8O26]4− ions. Four oxygen atoms on one face of each β[Mo8O26]4− ion are coordinated to a Na+ ion, and four oxygens from the opposite face are bonded to the next Na+ ion in the polymer chain. This produces a zig-zag arrangement of Na+ ions throughout the molecular structure. Spectral, conductivity and voltammetry data are given.

Understanding distributions of chess performances

This paper presents evidence for several features of the population of chess players, and the distribution of their performances measured in terms of Elo ratings and by computer analysis of moves. Evidence that ratings have remained stable since the inception of the Elo system in the 1970’s is given in several forms: by showing that the population of strong players fits a simple logistic-curve model without inflation, by plotting players’ average error against the FIDE category of tournaments over time, and by skill parameters from a model that employs computer analysis keeping a nearly constant relation to Elo rating across that time. The distribution of the model’s Intrinsic Performance Ratings can hence be used to compare populations that have limited interaction, such as between players in a national chess federation and FIDE, and ascertain relative drift in their respective rating systems.