Midday auroral breakup events and related energy and momentum transfer from the magnetosheath

Combined observations by meridian-scanning photometers, all-sky auroral TV camera and the EISCAT radar permitted a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial development of the midday auroral breakup phenomenon and the related ionospheric ion flow pattern within the 71°–75° invariant latitude radar field of view. The radar data revealed dominating northward and westward ion drifts, of magnitudes close to the corresponding velocities of the discrete, transient auroral forms, during the two different events reported here, characterized by IMF |BY/BZ| < 1 and > 2, respectively (IMF BZ between −8 and −3 nT and BY > 0). The spatial scales of the discrete optical events were ∼50 km in latitude by ∼500 km in longitude, and their lifetimes were less than 10 min. Electric potential enhancements with peak values in the 30–50 kV range are inferred along the discrete arc in the IMF |BY/BZ| < 1 case from the optical data and across the latitudinal extent of the radar field of view in the |BY/BZ| > 2 case. Joule heat dissipation rates in the maximum phase of the discrete structures of ∼ 100 ergs cm−2 s−1 (0.1 W m−2) are estimated from the photometer intensities and the ion drift data. These observations combined with the additional characteristics of the events, documented here and in several recent studies (i.e., their quasi-periodic nature, their motion pattern relative to the persistent cusp or cleft auroral arc, the strong relationship with the interplanetary magnetic field and the associated ion drift/E field events and ground magnetic signatures), are considered to be strong evidence in favour of a transient, intermittent reconnection process at the dayside magnetopause and associated energy and momentum transfer to the ionosphere in the polar cusp and cleft regions. The filamentary spatial structure and the spectral characteristics of the optical signature indicate associated localized ˜1-kV potential drops between the magnetopause and the ionosphere during the most intense auroral events. The duration of the events compares well with the predicted characteristic times of momentum transfer to the ionosphere associated with the flux transfer event-related current tubes. It is suggested that, after this 2–10 min interval, the sheath particles can no longer reach the ionosphere down the open flux tube, due to the subsequent super-Alfvénic flow along the magnetopause, conductivities are lower and much less momentum is extracted from the solar wind by the ionosphere. The recurrence time (3–15 min) and the local time distribution (∼0900–1500 MLT) of the dayside auroral breakup events, combined with the above information, indicate the important roles of transient magnetopause reconnection and the polar cusp and cleft regions in the transfer of momentum and energy between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

Low-altitude signatures of the cusp and flux transfer events

The usual interpretation of a flux transfer event (FTE) at the magnetopause, in terms of time-dependent and possibly patchy reconnection, demands that it generate an ionospheric signature. Recent ground-based observations have revealed that auroral transients in the cusp/cleft region have all the characteristics required of FTE effects. However, signatures in the major available dataset, namely that from low-altitude polar-orbiting satellites, have not yet been identified. In this paper, we consider a cusp pass of the DE-2 spacecraft during strongly southward IMF. The particle detectors show magnetosheath ion injection signatures. However, the satellite motion and convection are opposed, and we discuss how the observed falling energy dispersion of the precipitating ions can have arisen from a static, moving or growing source. The spatial scale of the source is typical of an FTE. A simple model of the ionospheric signature of an FTE reproduces the observed electric and magnetic field perturbations. Precipitating electrons of peak energy ∼100eV are found to lie on the predicted boundary of the newly-opened tube, very similar to those found on the edges of FTEs at the magnetopause. The injected ions are within this boundary and their dispersion is consistent with its growth as reconnection proceeds. The reconnection potential and the potential of the induced ionospheric motion are found to be the same (≃25kV). The scanning imager on DE-1 shows a localised transient auroral feature around DE-2 at this time, similar to the recent optical/radar observations of FTEs.

Ionospheric ion upwelling in the wake of flux transfer events at the dayside magnetopause

The effects of flux transfer events (FTE) on the dayside auroral ionosphere are studied, using a simple twin-vortex model of induced ionospheric plasma flow. It is shown that the predicted and observed velocities of these flows are sufficient to drive nonthermal plasma in the F region, not only within the newly opened flux tube of the FTE, but also on the closed, or "old" open, field lines around it. In fact, with the expected poleward neutral wind, the plasma is more highly nonthermal on the flanks of, but outside, the open flux tube: EISCAT observations indicate that plasma is indeed driven into nonthermal distributions in these regions. The nonthermal plasma is thereby subject to additional upforce due to the resulting ion temperature anisotropy and transient expansion due to Joule heating and also to ion accelerations associated with the FTE field aligned current system. Any upflows produced on closed field lines in the vicinity of the FTE are effectively bunched-up in the "wake" of the FTE. Observations from the AMPTE-UKS satellite at the magnetopause reveal ion upflows of energy ∼100 eV flowing out from the ionosphere on closed field lines which are only found in the wake of the FTE. Such flows are also only found shortly after two, out of all the FTEs observed by AMPTE-UKS. The outflow from the ionosphere is two orders of magnitude greater than predicted for the "classical" polar wind. It is shown that such ionospheric ion flows are only expected in association with FTEs on the magnetopause which are well removed from the sub-solar point-either towards dusk or, as in the UKS example discussed here, towards dawn. It is suggested that such ionospheric ions will only be observed if the center of the FTE open flux tube passes very close to the satellite. Consequently, we conclude the ion upflows presented here are probably driven by the second of two possible source FTEs and are observed at the satellite with a lag after the FTE which is less than their time-of-flight.

Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events

Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.

Attribution of climate extreme events

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Detecting regular sound changes in linguistics as events of concerted evolution

Background: Concerted evolution is normally used to describe parallel changes at different sites in a genome, but it is also observed in languages where a specific phoneme changes to the same other phoneme in many words in the lexicon—a phenomenon known as regular sound change. We develop a general statistical model that can detect concerted changes in aligned sequence data and apply it to study regular sound changes in the Turkic language family. Results: Linguistic evolution, unlike the genetic substitutional process, is dominated by events of concerted evolutionary change. Our model identified more than 70 historical events of regular sound change that occurred throughout the evolution of the Turkic language family, while simultaneously inferring a dated phylogenetic tree. Including regular sound changes yielded an approximately 4-fold improvement in the characterization of linguistic change over a simpler model of sporadic change, improved phylogenetic inference, and returned more reliable and plausible dates for events on the phylogenies. The historical timings of the concerted changes closely follow a Poisson process model, and the sound transition networks derived from our model mirror linguistic expectations. Conclusions: We demonstrate that a model with no prior knowledge of complex concerted or regular changes can nevertheless infer the historical timings and genealogical placements of events of concerted change from the signals left in contemporary data. Our model can be applied wherever discrete elements—such as genes, words, cultural trends, technologies, or morphological traits—can change in parallel within an organism or other evolving group.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.

Extraction of unexpected rules from Twitter hashtags and its application to sport events

Twitter has become a dependable microblogging tool for real time information dissemination and newsworthy events broadcast. Its users sometimes break news on the network faster than traditional newsagents due to their presence at ongoing real life events at most times. Different topic detection methods are currently used to match Twitter posts to real life news of mainstream media. In this paper, we analyse tweets relating to the English FA Cup finals 2012 by applying our novel method named TRCM to extract association rules present in hash tag keywords of tweets in different time-slots. Our system identify evolving hash tag keywords with strong association rules in each time-slot. We then map the identified hash tag keywords to event highlights of the game as reported in the ground truth of the main stream media. The performance effectiveness measure of our experiments show that our method perform well as a Topic Detection and Tracking approach.

Evidence for interplay between genes and maternal stress in utero: monoamine oxidase A polymorphism moderates effects of life events during pregnancy on infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks

The low activity variant of the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) functional promoter polymorphism, MAOA-LPR, in interaction with adverse environments (G × E) is associated with child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders. MAOA is expressed during foetal development so in utero G × E may influence early neurodevelopment. We tested the hypothesis that MAOA G × E during pregnancy predicts infant negative emotionality soon after birth. In an epidemiological longitudinal study starting in pregnancy, using a two stage stratified design, we ascertained MAOA-LPR status (low vs. high activity variants) from the saliva of 209 infants (104 boys and 105 girls), and examined predictions to observed infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks post-partum from life events during pregnancy. In analyses weighted to provide estimates for the general population, and including possible confounders for life events, there was an MAOA status by life events interaction (P = 0.017). There was also an interaction between MAOA status and neighbourhood deprivation (P = 0.028). Both interactions arose from a greater effect of increasing life events on negative emotionality in the MAOA-LPR low activity, compared with MAOA-LPR high activity infants. The study provides the first evidence of moderation by MAOA-LPR of the effect of the social environment in pregnancy on negative emotionality in infancy, an early risk for the development of child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.