Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections (HadCM3 global climate model) for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

Demand side response: patterns in Europe and future policy perspectives under capacity mechanisms

Demand Side Response (DSR) has been slow to emerge in European electricity markets. This paper aims to both examine the reasons for low levels of DSR in Europe and reflect on factors that might affect the participation of DSR in capacity mechanisms. It relies on available evidence from the literature, secondary data on existing DSR programmes and energy aggregator's data from industries participating in DSR. Findings show that changes to the duration of contracted loads under existing or new programmes might increase the penetration of DSR. The introduction of capacity mechanisms may increase DSR from demand turn down if longer response times were available.

Potential of legume-based grassland-livestock systems in Europe

European grassland-based livestock production systems are challenged to produce more milk and meat to meet increasing world demand and to achieve this by using fewer resources. Legumes offer great potential for coping with such requests. They have numerous features that can act together at different stages in the soil-plant-animal-atmosphere system and these are most effective in mixed swards with a legume abundance of 30-50%. The resulting benefits are a reduced dependency on fossil energy and industrial N fertilizer, lower quantities of harmful emissions to the environment (greenhouse gases and nitrate), lower production costs, higher productivity and increased protein self-sufficiency. Some legume species offer opportunities for improving animal health with less medication due to bioactive secondary metabolites. In addition, legumes may offer an option for adapting to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations and to climate change. Legumes generate these benefits at the level of the managed land area unit and also at the level of the final product unit. However, legumes suffer from some limitations, and suggestions are made for future research in order to exploit more fully the opportunities that legumes can offer. In conclusion, the development of legume-based grassland-livestock systems undoubtedly constitutes one of the pillars for more sustainable and competitive ruminant production systems, and it can only be expected that legumes will become more important in the future.

Potential of legume-based grassland-livestock systems in Europe

European grassland-based livestock production systems face the challenge of producing more meat and milk to meet increasing world demands and to achieve this using fewer resources. Legumes offer great potential for achieving these objectives. They have numerous features that can act together at different stages in the soil–plant–animal–atmosphere system, and these are most effective in mixed swards with a legume proportion of 30–50%. The resulting benefits include reduced dependence on fossil energy and industrial N-fertilizer, lower quantities of harmful emissions to the environment (greenhouse gases and nitrate), lower production costs, higher productivity and increased protein self-sufficiency. Some legume species offer opportunities for improving animal health with less medication, due to the presence of bioactive secondary metabolites. In addition, legumes may offer an adaptation option to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate change. Legumes generate these benefits at the level of the managed land-area unit and also at the level of the final product unit. However, legumes suffer from some limitations, and suggestions are made for future research to exploit more fully the opportunities that legumes can offer. In conclusion, the development of legume-based grassland–livestock systems undoubtedly constitutes one of the pillars for more sustainable and competitive ruminant production systems, and it can be expected that forage legumes will become more important in the future.

Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

1.Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. 2.Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land-use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus; a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall), and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. 3.Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs, and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. 4.Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. 5.Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will become worse over time. Our results suggest that forest restoration designed to reduce the detrimental impacts of agriculture on breeding may also help reduce the detrimental effects of breeding late due to wetter springs. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects of environmental change when managing wild populations.

The emergence of Agribusiness in Europe and the development of the Western European broiler chicken industry, 1945-73

This article presents new data on the emergence and growth of the leading Western European poultry industries after 1945. It shows that those countries where poultry output grew most quickly – especially the UK, Italy and Spain – were also the countries where the agricultural sectors adopted US technologies and US agribusiness organizational structures most vigorously. Elsewhere in Western Europe, poultry output grew much less quickly and the adoption of agribusiness structures lagged behind. By contrast, the poultry sector in the USSR was based on the Soviet collectivist system. This was the largest poultry sector in Europe, but also much less efficient. The article suggests therefore that the diffusion of agribusiness and the increase in poultry output were deeply entwined across Europe, with potentially important consequences for the different roles and impacts of agribusiness in Europe.

Acrylamide concentrations in potato crisps in Europe from 2002 to 2011

A dataset of manufacturers' measurements of acrylamide levels in 40,455 samples of fresh sliced potato crisps from 20 European countries for years 2002 to 2011 was compiled. This dataset is by far the largest ever compiled relating to acrylamide levels in potato crisps. Analysis of variance was applied to the data and showed a clear, significant downward trend for mean levels of acrylamide, from 763 +/- 91.1 ng g(-1) (parts per billion) in 2002 to 358 +/- 2.5 ng g(-1) in 2011; this was a decrease of 53% +/- 13.5%. The yearly 95th quantile values were also subject to a clear downward trend. The effect of seasonality arising from the influence of potato storage on acrylamide levels was evident, with acrylamide in the first 6 months of the year being significantly higher than in the second 6 months. The proportion of samples containing acrylamide at a level above the indicative value of 1000ngg(-1) for potato crisps introduced by the European Commission in 2011 fell from 23.8% in 2002 to 3.2% in 2011. Nevertheless, even in 2011, a small proportion of samples still contained high levels of acrylamide, with 0.2% exceeding 2000ngg(-1).

Ixodes ricinus (Ixodidae), an occasional phoront on necrophagous and coprophagous beetles in Europe

For ticks, phoretic behaviour using insects associated with vertebrates might offer an alternative strategy to host-seeking. Here we report for the first time the presence of immature stages of the most widespread tick species in Western Europe, Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae), on three beetle species belonging to families Silphidae and Geotrupidae (Coleoptera). Specimens were collected while performing fieldwork surveys on insect diversity during the peak of tick’s questing behaviour, therefore, in July and August of 2009 and 2010. The collections took place in two Natural Parks, the Aiako Harria, Guipúzcoa in Northern Spain and Wellington Country Park, Berkshire, in England. The silphid species Nicrophorus vespilloides, together with the geotrupid Trypocopris pyrenaeus were both collected from pig-carcasses and both carried nymphs of I. ricinus; while, the geotrupid Anoplotrupes stercorosus was carrying a tick larva while feeding on Red deer dung. These findings revealed an unnoticed but common relation of ticks not only with decomposed animals but also with insect scavengers. We discuss the rationale of this phenomenon.

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

National boundaries and the location of multinational firms in Europe

Using data on 5,102 subsidiaries established in the period 1991–1999, we examine the location choice of multinational firms of different nationalities in 47 regions of five EU countries. In particular we estimate a nested logit model and find that European multinationals consider regions across different countries as relatively closer substitutes than regions within national borders. This is consistent with the hypothesis that European regions compete to attract foreign direct investments relatively more across than within countries. However, in line with previous studies, we also find that national boundaries still play some role in choices made by non-European multinationals.