Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: initialization month dependence

Seasonal-to-interannual predictions of Arctic sea ice may be important for Arctic communities and industries alike. Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea ice is potentially predictable but that the skill of predictions of the September extent minimum, initialized in early summer, may be low. The authors demonstrate that a melt season ���predictability barrier��� and two predictability reemergence mechanisms, suggested by a previous study, are robust features of five global climate models. Analysis of idealized predictions with one of these models [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1.2 (HadGEM1.2)], initialized in January, May and July, demonstrates that this predictability barrier exists in initialized forecasts as well. As a result, the skill of sea ice extent and volume forecasts are strongly start date dependent and those that are initialized in May lose skill much faster than those initialized in January or July. Thus, in an operational setting, initializing predictions of extent and volume in July has strong advantages for the prediction of the September minimum when compared to predictions initialized in May. Furthermore, a regional analysis of sea ice predictability indicates that extent is predictable for longer in the seasonal ice zones of the North Atlantic and North Pacific than in the regions dominated by perennial ice in the central Arctic and marginal seas. In a number of the Eurasian shelf seas, which are important for Arctic shipping, only the forecasts initialized in July have continuous skill during the first summer. In contrast, predictability of ice volume persists for over 2 yr in the central Arctic but less in other regions.

A Lab-in-a-briefcase for rapid prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening from whole blood

We present a new concept for rapid and fully portable Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) measurement, termed ���Lab-in-a-Briefcase���, which integrates an affordable microfluidic ELISA platform utilising a melt-extruded fluoropolymer Micro Capillary Film (MCF) containing 10 bore, 200 ��m internal diameter capillaries, a disposable multi-syringe aspirator (MSA) plus a sample tray pre-loaded with all required immunoassay reagents, and a portable film scanner for colorimetric signal digital quantitation. Each MSA can perform 10 replicate microfluidic immunoassays on 8 samples, allowing 80measurements to be made in less than 15 minutes based on semi-automated operation and norequirement of additional fluid handling equipment. An assay was optimised for measurement of a clinically relevant range of PSA from 0.9 to 60.0 ng/ml in 15 minutes with CVs in the order of 5% based on intra-assay variability when read using a consumer flatbed film scanner. The PSA assay performance in the MSA remained robust in the presence of undiluted or 1:2 diluted human serum or whole blood, and the matrix effect could simply be overcome by extending sample incubation times. The PSA "Lab-in-a-briefcase" is particularly suited to a low-resource health setting where diagnostic labs and automated immunoassay systems are not accessible, by allowing PSA measurement outside the laboratory using affordable equipment.

Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14���20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors��� knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008���12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast ���value��� for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

Curl free pressure gradients over orography in a solution of the fully compressible Euler equations with implicit treatment of acoustic and gravity waves

Steep orography can cause noisy solutions and instability in models of the atmosphere. A new technique for modelling flow over orography is introduced which guarantees curl free gradients on arbitrary grids, implying that the pressure gradient term is not a spurious source of vorticity. This mimetic property leads to better hydrostatic balance and better energy conservation on test cases using terrain following grids. Curl-free gradients are achieved by using the co-variant components of velocity over orography rather than the usual horizontal and vertical components. In addition, gravity and acoustic waves are treated implicitly without the need for mean and perturbation variables or a hydrostatic reference profile. This enables a straightforward description of the implicit treatment of gravity waves. Results are presented of a resting atmosphere over orography and the curl-free pressure gradient formulation is advantageous. Results of gravity waves over orography are insensitive to the placement of terrain-following layers. The model with implicit gravity waves is stable in strongly stratified conditions, with N���t up to at least 10 (where N is the Brunt-V ��ais ��al ��a frequency). A warm bubble rising over orography is simulated and the curl free pressure gradient formulation gives much more accurate results for this test case than a model without this mimetic property.

The importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for the boundary density variations and the geostrophic component of the AMOC at 26��N

It is widely thought that changes in both the surface buoyancy fluxes and wind stress drive variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but that they drive variability on different time scales. For example, wind forcing dominates short-term variability through its effects on Ekman currents and coastal upwelling, whereas buoyancy forcing is important for longer time scales (multiannual and decadal). However, the role of the wind forcing on multiannual to decadal time scales is less clear. Here the authors present an analysis of simulations with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with the aim of explaining the important drivers of the zonal density gradient at 26��N, which is directly related to the AMOC. In the experiments, only one of either the wind stress or the buoyancy forcing is allowed to vary in time, whereas the other remains at its seasonally varying climatology. On subannual time scales, variations in the density gradient, and in the AMOC minus Ekman, are driven largely by local wind-forced coastal upwelling at both the western and eastern boundaries. On decadal time scales, buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation dominates variability in the AMOC. Interestingly, however, it is found that wind forcing also plays a role at longer time scales, primarily impacting the interannual variability through the excitation of Rossby waves in the central Atlantic, which propagate westward to interact with the western boundary, but also by modulating the decadal time-scale response to buoyancy forcing.

The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO���s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure

Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central-Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase, is caused by an interaction between the Western Pacific annual cycle and El Ni��o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central-Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional Eastern-Pacific (or EP) El Ni��o events rather than in Central-Pacific (CP) El Ni��o events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Ni��o events, the SST anomalies of CP El Ni��o events extend further west towards to the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies thus are able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Ni��o events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Ni��a events is similar to CP El Ni��o events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Ni��a decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle-modulated ENSO response.

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.

How do atmospheric rivers form?

Identifying the source of atmospheric rivers: Are they rivers of moisture exported from the subtropics or footprints left behind by poleward travelling storms? The term atmospheric river is used to describe corridors of strong water vapor transport in the troposphere. Filaments of enhanced water vapor, commonly observed in satellite imagery extending from the subtropics to the extratropics, are routinely used as a proxy for identifying these regions of strong water vapor transport. The precipitation associated with these filaments of enhanced water vapor can lead to high impact flooding events. However, there remains some debate as to how these filaments form. In this paper we analyse the transport of water vapor within a climatology of wintertime North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front which sweeps up water vapor in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This causes a narrow band of high water vapor content to form ahead of the cold front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow. Thus, water vapor in the cyclone's warm sector, and not long-distance transport of water vapor from the subtropics, is responsible for the generation of filaments of high water vapor content. A continuous cycle of evaporation and moisture convergence within the cyclone replenishes water vapor lost via precipitation. Thus, rather than representing a direct and continuous feed of moist air from the subtropics into the centre of a cyclone (as suggested by the term atmospheric river), these filaments are, in-fact, the result of water vapor exported from the cyclone and thus they represent the footprints left behind as cyclones travel polewards from subtropics.

On the structure and dynamics of Indian monsoon depressions

ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the past 35 years have been used with a newly-developed feature tracking algorithm to identify Indian monsoon depressions originating in or near the Bay of Bengal. These were then rotated, centralised and combined to give a fully three-dimensional 106-depression composite structure ��� a considerably larger sample than any previous detailed study on monsoon depressions and their structure. Many known features of depression structure are confirmed, particularly the existence of a maximum to the southwest of the centre in rainfall and other fields, and a westward axial tilt in others. Additionally, the depressions are found to have significant asymmetry due to the presence of the Himalayas; a bimodal mid-tropospheric potential vorticity core; a separation into thermally cold- (~���1.5K) and neutral- (~0K) cores near the surface with distinct properties; and that the centre has very large CAPE and very small CIN. Variability as a function of background state has also been explored, with land/coast/sea, diurnal, ENSO, active/break and Indian Ocean Dipole contrasts considered. Depressions are found to be markedly stronger during the active phase of the monsoon, as well as during La Ni��a. Depressions on land are shown to be more intense and more tightly constrained to the central axis. A detailed schematic diagram of a vertical cross-section through a composite depression is also presented, showing its inherent asymmetric structure.

The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models

Experiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface-air-temperature change is nonlinear in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95% confidence) less negative ��� i.e. the effective climate sensitivity increases ��� as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM-mean approximately 60% of the change in feedback parameter comes from the topics (30N-30S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving pattern of surface warming is confirmed using the HadGEM2 and HadCM3 atmosphere GCMs (AGCMs). With monthly evolving sea-surface-temperatures and sea-ice prescribed from its AOGCM counterpart each AGCM reproduces the time-varying feedbacks, but when a fixed pattern of warming is prescribed the radiative response is linear with global temperature change or nearly so. We also demonstrate that the regression and fixed-SST methods for evaluating effective radiative forcing are in principle different, because rapid SST adjustment when CO2 is changed can produce a pattern of surface temperature change with zero global mean but non-zero change in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (~ -0.5 Wm-2 in HadCM3).

Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the ���enigma��� of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in US landfalling systems. Here we present a tentative study, which examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1�� to 0.25��), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and sub-tropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks��� seasonality, intensity and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. Our results show that except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. We also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, we examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.

Transition from suppressed to active convection modulated by a weak-temperature gradient derived large-scale circulation

Numerical simulations are performed to assess the in���uence of the large-scale circulation on the transition from suppressed to active convection. As a model tool, we used a coupled-column model. It consists of two cloud-resolving models which are fully coupled via a large-scale circulation which is derived from the requirement that the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature pro���les of the two columns remain close to each other. This is known as the weak-temperature gradient approach. The simulations of the transition are initialized from coupled-column simulations over non-uniform surface forcing and the transition is forced within the dry column by changing the local and/or remote surface forcings to uniform surface forcing across the columns. As the strength of the circulation is reduced to zero, moisture is recharged into the dry column and a transition to active convection occurs once the column is su���ciently moistened to sustain deep convection. Direct e���ects of changing surface forcing occur over the ���rst few days only. Afterward, it is the evolution of the large-scale circulation which systematically modulates the transition. Its contributions are approximately equally divided between the heating and moistening e���ects. A transition time is de���ned to summarize the evolution from suppressed to active convection. It is the time when the rain rate within the dry column is halfway to the mean value obtained at equilibrium over uniform surface forcing. The transition time is around twice as long for a transition that is forced remotely compared to a transition that is forced locally. Simulations in which both local and remote surface forcings are changed produce intermediate transition times.

Estimating Lorenz's reference state in an ocean with a nonlinear equation of state for seawater

The study of the mechanical energy budget of the oceans using Lorenz available potential energy (APE) theory is based on knowledge of the adiabatically re-arranged Lorenz reference state of minimum potential energy. The compressible and nonlinear character of the equation of state for seawater has been thought to cause the reference state to be ill-defined, casting doubt on the usefulness of APE theory for investigating ocean energetics under realistic conditions. Using a method based on the volume frequency distribution of parcels as a function of temperature and salinity in the context of the seawater Boussinesq approximation, which we illustrate using climatological data, we show that compressibility effects are in fact minor. The reference state can be regarded as a well defined one-dimensional function of depth, which forms a surface in temperature, salinity and density space between the surface and the bottom of the ocean. For a very small proportion of water masses, this surface can be multivalued and water parcels can have up to two statically stable levels in the reference density profile, of which the shallowest is energetically more accessible. Classifying parcels from the surface to the bottom gives a different reference density profile than classifying in the opposite direction. However, this difference is negligible. We show that the reference state obtained by standard sorting methods is equivalent, though computationally more expensive, to the volume frequency distribution approach. The approach we present can be applied systematically and in a computationally efficient manner to investigate the APE budget of the ocean circulation using models or climatological data.

Effects of organic and conventional fertilizer treatments on host selection by the aphid parasitoid Diaeretiella rapae

The type and quantity of fertilizer supplied to a crop will differ between organic and conventional farming practices. Altering the type of fertilizer a plant is provided with can influence a plant���s foliar nitrogen levels, as well as the composition and concentration of defence compounds, such as glucosinolates. Many natural enemies of insect herbivores can respond to headspace volatiles emitted by the herbivores��� host plant in response to herbivory. We propose that manipulating fertilizer type may also influence the headspace volatile profiles of plants, and as a result, the tritrophic interactions that occur between plants, their insect pests and those pests��� natural enemies. Here, we investigate a tritrophic system consisting of cabbage plants, Brassica oleracea, a parasitoid, Diaeretiella rapae, and one of its hosts, the specialist cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae. Brassica oleracea plants were provided with either no additional fertilization or one of three types of fertilizer: Nitram (ammonium nitrate), John Innes base or organic chicken manure. We investigated whether these changes would alter the rate of parasitism of aphids on those plants and whether any differences in parasitism could be explained by differences in attractivity of the plants to D. rapae or attack rate of aphids by D. rapae. In free-choice experiments, there were significant differences in the percentage of B. brassicae parasitized by D. rapae between B. oleracea plants grown in different fertilizer treatments. In a series of dual-choice Y-tube olfactometry experiments, D. rapae females discriminated between B. brassicae-infested and undamaged plants, but parasitoids did not discriminate between similarly infested plants grown in different fertilizer treatments. Correspondingly, in attack rate experiments, there were no differences in the rate that D. rapae attacked B. brassicae on B. oleracea plants grown in different fertilizer treatments. These findings are of direct relevance to sustainable and conventional farming practices.