The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

Impact of hydrographic data assimilation on the modelled Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Here we make an initial step toward the development of an ocean assimilation system that can constrain the modelled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to support climate predictions. A detailed comparison is presented of 1° and 1/4° resolution global model simulations with and without sequential data assimilation, to the observations and transport estimates from the RAPID mooring array across 26.5° N in the Atlantic. Comparisons of modelled water properties with the observations from the merged RAPID boundary arrays demonstrate the ability of in situ data assimilation to accurately constrain the east-west density gradient between these mooring arrays. However, the presence of an unconstrained "western boundary wedge" between Abaco Island and the RAPID mooring site WB2 (16 km offshore) leads to the intensification of an erroneous southwards flow in this region when in situ data are assimilated. The result is an overly intense southward upper mid-ocean transport (0–1100 m) as compared to the estimates derived from the RAPID array. Correction of upper layer zonal density gradients is found to compensate mostly for a weak subtropical gyre circulation in the free model run (i.e. with no assimilation). Despite the important changes to the density structure and transports in the upper layer imposed by the assimilation, very little change is found in the amplitude and sub-seasonal variability of the AMOC. This shows that assimilation of upper layer density information projects mainly on the gyre circulation with little effect on the AMOC at 26° N due to the absence of corrections to density gradients below 2000 m (the maximum depth of Argo). The sensitivity to initial conditions was explored through two additional experiments using a climatological initial condition. These experiments showed that the weak bias in gyre intensity in the control simulation (without data assimilation) develops over a period of about 6 months, but does so independently from the overturning, with no change to the AMOC. However, differences in the properties and volume transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) persisted throughout the 3 year simulations resulting in a difference of 3 Sv in AMOC intensity. The persistence of these dense water anomalies and their influence on the AMOC is promising for the development of decadal forecasting capabilities. The results suggest that the deeper waters must be accurately reproduced in order to constrain the AMOC.

Constraining a North Atlantic Ocean general circulation model with chlorofluorocarbon observations

Measurements of anthropogenic tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons and tritium must be quantitatively combined with ocean general circulation models as a component of systematic model development. The authors have developed and tested an inverse method, using a Green's function, to constrain general circulation models with transient tracer data. Using this method chlorofluorocarbon-11 and -12 (CFC-11 and -12) observations are combined with a North Atlantic configuration of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model with 4/3 degrees resolution. Systematic differences can be seen between the observed CFC concentrations and prior CFC fields simulated by the model. These differences are reduced by the inversion, which determines the optimal gas transfer across the air-sea interface, accounting for uncertainties in the tracer observations. After including the effects of unresolved variability in the CFC fields, the model is found to be inconsistent with the observations because the model/data misfit slightly exceeds the error estimates. By excluding observations in waters ventilated north of the Greenland-Scotland ridge (sigma (0) < 27.82 kg m(-3); shallower than about 2000 m), the fit is improved, indicating that the Nordic overflows are poorly represented in the model. Some systematic differences in the model/data residuals remain and are related, in part, to excessively deep model ventilation near Rockall and deficient ventilation in the main thermocline of the eastern subtropical gyre. Nevertheless, there do not appear to be gross errors in the basin-scale model circulation. Analysis of the CFC inventory using the constrained model suggests that the North Atlantic Ocean shallower than about 2000 m was near 20% saturated in the mid-1990s. Overall, this basin is a sink to 22% of the total atmosphere-to-ocean CFC-11 flux-twice the global average value. The average water mass formation rates over the CFC transient are 7.0 and 6.0 Sv (Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) for subtropical mode water and subpolar mode water, respectively.

Arctic oscillation or North Atlantic oscillation?

The definition and interpretation of the Arctic oscillation (AO) are examined and compared with those of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). It is shown that the NAO reflects the correlations between the surface pressure variability at its centers of action, whereas this is not the case for the AO. The NAO pattern can be identified in a physically consistent way in principal component analysis applied to various fields in the Euro-Atlantic region. A similar identification is found in the Pacific region for the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, but no such identification is found here for the AO. The AO does reflect the tendency for the zonal winds at 35° and 55°N to anticorrelate in both the Atlantic and Pacific regions associated with the NAO and PNA. Because climatological features in the two ocean basins are at different latitudes, the zonally symmetric nature of the AO does not mean that it represents a simple modulation of the circumpolar flow. An increase in the AO or NAO implies strong, separated tropospheric jets in the Atlantic but a weakened Pacific jet. The PNA has strong related variability in the Pacific jet exit, but elsewhere the zonal wind is similar to that related to the NAO. The NAO-related zonal winds link strongly through to the stratosphere in the Atlantic sector. The PNA-related winds do so in the Pacific, but to a lesser extent. The results suggest that the NAO paradigm may be more physically relevant and robust for Northern Hemisphere variability than is the AO paradigm. However, this does not disqualify many of the physical mechanisms associated with annular modes for explaining the existence of the NAO.

Impact of the Atlantic Ocean on the multidecadal fluctuation of El Nino–Southern Oscillation–South Asian monsoon relationship in a coupled general circulation model

The multidecadal variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–South Asian monsoon relationship is elucidated in a 1000 year control simulation of a coupled general circulation model. The results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), resulting from the natural fluctuation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), plays an important role in modulating the multidecadal variation of the ENSO-monsoon relationship. The sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the AMO induce not only significant climate impact in the Atlantic but also the coupled feedbacks in the tropical Pacific regions. The remote responses in the Pacific Ocean to a positive phase of the AMO which is resulted from enhanced AMOC in the model simulation and are characterized by statistically significant warming in the North Pacific and in the western tropical Pacific, a relaxation of tropical easterly trades in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. These changes in mean states lead to a reduction of ENSO variability and therefore a weakening of the ENSO-monsoon relationship. This study suggests a nonlocal mechanism for the low-frequency fluctuation of the ENSO-monsoon relationship, although the AMO explains only a fraction of the ENSO–South Asian monsoon variation on decadal-multidecadal timescale. Given the multidecadal variation of the AMOC and therefore of the AMO exhibit decadal predictability, this study highlights the possibility that a part of the change of climate variability in the Pacific Ocean and its teleconnection may be predictable.

A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream

Much of the atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is associated with variations in the eddy-driven component of the zonal flow. Here we present a simple method to specifically diagnose this component of the flow using the low-level wind field (925–700 hpa ). We focus on the North Atlantic winter season in the ERA-40 reanalysis. Diagnostics of the latitude and speed of the eddy-driven jet stream are compared with conventional diagnostics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. This shows that the NAO and the EA both describe combined changes in the latitude and speed of the jet stream. It is therefore necessary, but not always sufficient, to consider both the NAO and the EA in identifying changes in the jet stream. The jet stream analysis suggests that there are three preferred latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in winter. This result is in very good agreement with the application of a statistical mixture model to the two-dimensional state space defined by the NAO and the EA. These results are consistent with several other studies which identify four European/Atlantic regimes, comprising three jet stream patterns plus European blocking events.

Features of the Atlantic diet and its healthiness: Theory and evidence from social science

In order to understand diets, why and how they change and can be influenced, it is important to understand how food choices are made. The has been the subject of, considerable study within many of the social science disciplines and the humanities. The paper draws on the theoretical and empirical work of psychologists, sociologists, economists, market researchers, anthropologists, geographers and historians to understand better the forces behind food choice, derive some general empirical messages from the literature, to shed light on food choice in a European context and to address the question of whether there is, or has been, a recognisably Atlantic diet. The paper proceeds to analyse the characteristics of the food consumption patterns in the Atlantic diet countries, examines whether their food consumption patterns are homogenous (i.e. similar across the countries of this group), whether they are specific (i.e. different from the ones in other country groups) and finally evaluates the nutritional composition of the Atlantic diet against the WHO/FAO recommendations for a healthy and wholesome diet.

Breeding success of Spotted Flycatchers Muscicapa striata in southern England - is woodland a good habitat for this species?

The UK population of the Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata has declined markedly in the last 30 years but there have been few recent studies of the species. This study examined the relationship between nest success and the predominant habitat type around Spotted Flycatcher nests in two contrasting areas of England. A breeding population in eastern England, a region where numbers of Spotted Flycatchers are known to have decreased dramatically in recent decades, was compared with another in southwest England, where numbers have remained stable or even increased. Whilst there was no difference in breeding success between the two study areas, there were significant differences between habitats, with garden nests more successful than those in farmland or woodland, at both egg and chick stages. Estimates of productivity per nesting attempt were also lower in farmland and woodland, with nests in gardens fledging twice as many chicks as those in either woodland or farmland. The proximate cause of lower success in farmland and woodland was higher nest predation rates during both egg and chick stages. In terms of nesting success, farmland and woodland appear to be similar in quality for this species, but both appear to be suboptimal habitats when compared with gardens, providing evidence of a problem on the breeding grounds for this species, in at least these two habitats.

Breeding success of Spotted Flycatchers Muscicapa striata in southern England - is woodland a good habitat for this species?

The UK population of the Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata has declined markedly in the last 30 years but there have been few recent studies of the species. This study examined the relationship between nest success and the predominant habitat type around Spotted Flycatcher nests in two contrasting areas of England. A breeding population in eastern England, a region where numbers of Spotted Flycatchers are known to have decreased dramatically in recent decades, was compared with another in southwest England, where numbers have remained stable or even increased. Whilst there was no difference in breeding success between the two study areas, there were significant differences between habitats, with garden nests more successful than those in farmland or woodland, at both egg and chick stages. Estimates of productivity per nesting attempt were also lower in farmland and woodland, with nests in gardens fledging twice as many chicks as those in either woodland or farmland. The proximate cause of lower success in farmland and woodland was higher nest predation rates during both egg and chick stages. In terms of nesting success, farmland and woodland appear to be similar in quality for this species, but both appear to be suboptimal habitats when compared with gardens, providing evidence of a problem on the breeding grounds for this species, in at least these two habitats.

Predators of Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata nests in southern England as determined by digital nest cameras

Capsule Avian predators are principally responsible. Aims To document the fate of Spotted Flycatcher nests and to identify the species responsible for nest predation. Methods During 2005-06, purpose-built, remote, digital nest-cameras were deployed at 65 out of 141 Spotted Flycatcher nests monitored in two study areas, one in south Devon and the second on the border of Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire. Results Of the 141 nests monitored, 90 were successful (non-camera nests, 49 out of 76 successful, camera nests, 41 out of 65). Fate was determined for 63 of the 65 nests monitored by camera, with 20 predation events documented, all of which occurred during daylight hours. Avian predators carried out 17 of the 20 predations, with the principal nest predator identified as Eurasian Jay Garrulus glandarius. The only mammal recorded predating nests was the Domestic Cat Felis catus, the study therefore providing no evidence that Grey Squirrels Sciurus carolinensis are an important predator of Spotted Flycatcher nests. There was no evidence of differences in nest survival rates at nests with and without cameras. Nest remains following predation events gave little clue as to the identity of the predator species responsible. Conclusions Nest-cameras can be useful tools in the identification of nest predators, and may be deployed with no subsequent effect on nest survival. The majority of predation of Spotted Flycatcher nests in this study was by avian predators, principally the Jay. There was little evidence of predation by mammalian predators. Identification of specific nest predators enhances studies of breeding productivity and predation risk.

Pliocene seasonality across the North Atlantic inferred from cheilostome bryozoans

Previous studies have shown an inverse correlation between zooid size in cheilostome bryozoans and ambient water temperature. This relationship underlies the MART technique which uses intracolonial variation in zooid size to predict mean annual range in temperature experienced by bryozoan colonies during their life. Here we apply the MART technique to study Early and Mid Pliocene bryozoans from Central America (Panama, Costa Rica), the USA (Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) and the UK (Suffolk) to reconstruct palaeoseasonality across a range of latitudes for the North Atlantic during the Pliocene Epoch. Compared to the present-day, our analyses suggest greater seasonality (ca 4.5 degrees C) in the southern Caribbean at the time of Cayo Agua Formation deposition (ca 4.25 Ma), in keeping with inferred upwelling prior to the closure of the isthmian barrier at 2.7 Ma. Bryozoans also indicate seasonal upwelling on the Gulf Coast of Florida in a similar manner to the present-day. Because upwelling can be highly localised and prone to spatial and temporal variation in the Gulf of Mexico today, it contributes little to a broad understanding of Pliocene North Atlantic waters. However, MART estimates for the coastal plain region indicate a general reduction in the annual range in temperature relative to the present, suggesting that the colder surface waters that today reach south to Cape Hatteras had less influence in Early to Mid Pliocene times. These results, along with evidence from other proxies, strongly support reduced seasonality and warmer conditions along the eastern seaboard of the USA in the Early to Mid Pliocene. Finally, the MART estimates amongst Coralline Crag localities provide evidence for an increased annual range in temperature in the southern North Sea than at present. Our study shows that bryozoan MART estimates provide a powerful, independent proxy for palaeoseasonality and is the first to demonstrate that the MART technique can be applied to infer palaeoclimates across a wide range of latitudes focusing on a variety of geological formations and geographical regions. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stocking may increase mitochondrial DNA diversity but fails to halt the decline of endangered Atlantic salmon populations

Over the last 50 years, Spanish Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations have been in decline. In order to bolster these populations, rivers were stocked with fish of northern European origin during the period 1974-1996, probably also introducing the furunculosis-inducing pathogen, Aeromonas salmonicida. Here we assess the relative importance of processes influencing mitochondrial (mt)DNA variability in these populations from 1948 to 2002. Genetic material collected over this period from four rivers in northern Spain (Cantabria) was used to detect variability at the mtDNA ND1 gene. Before stocking, a single haplotype was found at high frequency (0.980). Following stocking, haplotype diversity (h) increased in all rivers (mean h before stocking was 0.041, and 0.245 afterwards). These increases were due principally to the dramatic increase in frequency of a previously very low frequency haplotype, reported at higher frequencies in northern European populations proximate to those used to stock Cantabrian rivers. Genetic structuring increased after stocking: among-river differentiation was low before stocking (1950s/1960s Phi(ST) = -0.00296-0.00284), increasing considerably at the height of stocking (1980s Phi(ST) = 0.18932) and decreasing post-stocking (1990s/2002 Phi(ST) = 0.04934-0.03852). Gene flow from stocked fish therefore seems to have had a substantial role in increasing mtDNA variability. Additionally, we found significant differentiation between individuals that had probably died from infectious disease and apparently healthy, angled fish, suggesting a possible role for pathogen-driven selection of mtDNA variation. Our results suggest that stocking with non-native fish may increase genetic diversity in the short term, but may not reverse population declines.