Perspectives on the role of UK planning in land and property markets

There is a popular view that land use planning regulations (‘planning’) is hostile to both development and the development industry. Part of the reason for the prominence of this view is the homogenising of the notion of ‘planning’ and its reduction to development control. This paper argues that panning controls in the UK are far more sophisticated and, drawing upon empirical evidence of key property interests proposes a more complex and nuanced view of planning controls that, in large part, has the support of the developers and others.

Gauging the investment potential of international real estate markets

Investing in real estate markets overseas means venturing into the unknown, where you meet unfamiliar political and economic environments, unstable currencies, strange cultures and languages, and so although the advantages of international diversification might appear attractive, the risks of international investment must not be overlooked. However, capital markets are becoming global markets, and commercial real estate markets are no exception, accordingly despite the difficulties posed by venturing overseas no investor can overlook the potential international investment holds out. Thus, what strategies are appropriate for capitalising on this potential? Three issues must be considered: (1) the potential of the countries real estate market in general; (2) the potential of the individual market sectors; and (3) the investment process itself. Although each step in foreign real estate investment is critical, the initial assessment of opportunities is especially important. Various methods can be used to achieve this but a formal and systematic analysis of aggregate market potential should prove particularly fruitful. The work reported here, therefore, develops and illustrates such a methodology for the over 50 international real estate markets.

Back from beyond bid-ask spread: estimating liquidity in international markets

Research on the topic of liquidity has greatly benefited from the improved availability of data. Researchers have addressed questions regarding the factors that influence bid-ask spreads and the relationship between spreads and risk, return and liquidity. Intra-day data have been used to measure the effective spread and researchers have been able to refine the concepts of liquidity to include the price impact of transactions on a trade-by-trade analysis. The growth in the creation of tax-transparent securities has greatly enhanced the visibility of securitized real estate, and has naturally led to the question of whether the increased visibility of real estate has caused market liquidity to change. Although the growth in the public market for securitized real estate has occurred in international markets, it has not been accompanied by universal publication of transaction data. Therefore this paper develops an aggregate daily data-based test for liquidity and applies the test to US data in order to check for consistency with the results of prior intra-day analysis. If the two approaches produce similar results, we can apply the same technique to markets in which less detailed data are available and offer conclusions on the liquidity of a wider set of markets.

Data dilemmas in forecasting European office market rents

This paper uses data provided by three major real estate advisory firms to investigate the level and pattern of variation in the measurement of historic real estate rental values for the main European office centres. The paper assesses the extent to which the data providing organizations agree on historic market performance in terms of returns, risk and timing and examines the relationship between market maturity and agreement. The analysis suggests that at the aggregate level and for many markets, there is substantial agreement on direction, quantity and timing of market change. However, there is substantial variability in the level of agreement among cities. The paper also assesses whether the different data sets produce different explanatory models and market forecast. It is concluded that, although disagreement on the direction of market change is high for many market, the different data sets often produce similar explanatory models and predict similar relative performance.

Incorporating climate change into water resources planning in England and Wales

Public water supplies in England and Wales are provided by around 25 private-sector companies, regulated by an economic regulator (Ofwat) and and environmental regulator (Environment Agency). As part of the regulatory process, companies are required periodically to review their investment needs to maintain safe and secure supplies, and this involves an assessment of the future balance between water supply and demand. The water industry and regulators have developed an agreed set of procedures for this assessment. Climate change has been incorporated into these procedures since the late 1990s, although has been included increasingly seriously over time and it has been an effective legal requirement to consider climate change since the 2003 Water Act. In the most recent assessment in 2009, companies were required explicitly to plan for a defined amount of climate change, taking into account climate change uncertainty. A “medium” climate change scenario was defined, together with “wet” and “dry” extremes, based on scenarios developed from a number of climate models. The water industry and its regulators are now gearing up to exploit the new UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections – but these pose significant practical and conceptual challenges. This paper outlines how the procedures for incorporating climate change information into water resources planning have evolved, and explores the issues currently facing the industry in adapting to climate change.

Forecasting the future: an overview of the strategic planning of the Bournemouth and Poole conurbation

An important part of strategic planning’s purpose should be to attempt to forecast the future, not simply to belatedly respond to events, or accept the future as inevitable. This paper puts forward a conceptual approach for seeking to achieve these aims and uses the Bournemouth and Poole area in Dorset as a vehicle for applying the basic methodology. The area has been chosen because of the significant issues that it currently faces in planning terms; and its future development possibilities. In order that alternative future choices for the area – different ‘developmental trajectories’ – can be evaluated, they must be carefully and logically constructed. Four Futures for Bournemouth/Poole have been put forward; they are titled and colour-coded: Future One is Maximising Growth – Golden Prospect which seeks to achieve the highest level of economic prosperity of the area; Future Two is Incremental Growth – Solid Silver which attempts to facilitate a steady, continuing, controlled pattern of the development for the area; Future Three is Steady State – Cobalt Blue which suggests that people in the area could be more concerned with preserving their quality of life in terms of their leisure and recreation rather than increasing wealth; Future Four is Environment First – Jade Green which makes the area’s environmental protection its top priority even at the possible expense of economic prosperity. The scenarios proposed here are not sacrosanct. Nor are they simply confined to the Bournemouth and Poole area. In theory, suitably modified, they could use in a variety of different contexts. Consideration of the scenarios – wherever located - might then generate other, additional scenarios. These are called hybrids, alloys and amalgams. Likewise it might identify some of them as inappropriate or impossible. Most likely, careful consideration of the scenarios will suggest hybrid scenarios, in which features from different scenarios are combined to produce alternative or additional futures for consideration. The real issue then becomes how best to fashion such a future for the particular area under consideration

Path planning of robots in noisy workspaces using learning automata

The problem of a manipulator operating in a noisy workspace and required to move from an initial fixed position P0 to a final position Pf is considered. However, Pf is corrupted by noise, giving rise to Pˆf, which may be obtained by sensors. The use of learning automata is proposed to tackle this problem. An automaton is placed at each joint of the manipulator which moves according to the action chosen by the automaton (forward, backward, stationary) at each instant. The simultaneous reward or penalty of the automata enables avoiding any inverse kinematics computations that would be necessary if the distance of each joint from the final position had to be calculated. Three variable-structure learning algorithms are used, i.e., the discretized linear reward-penalty (DLR-P, the linear reward-penalty (LR-P ) and a nonlinear scheme. Each algorithm is separately tested with two (forward, backward) and three forward, backward, stationary) actions.