Multi-target out-of-sequence data association

In data fusion systems, one often encounters measurements of past target locations and then wishes to deduce where the targets are currently located. Recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships between the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit.

Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation

Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically though, these two requirements cannot both be met at the same time–tracking the observations is not possible without the trajectory deviating from the proposed model equations, while adherence to the model requires deviations from the observations. Thus, data assimilation faces a trade-off. In this contribution, the sensitivity of the data assimilation with respect to perturbations in the observations is identified as the parameter which controls the trade-off. A relation between the sensitivity and the out-of-sample error is established, which allows the latter to be calculated under operational conditions. A minimum out-of-sample error is proposed as a criterion to set an appropriate sensitivity and to settle the discussed trade-off. Two approaches to data assimilation are considered, namely variational data assimilation and Newtonian nudging, also known as synchronization. Numerical examples demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

What determines the out-of-home placement of children in the USA?

Using NCANDS data of US child maltreatment reports for 2009, logistic regression, probit analysis, discriminant analysis and an artificial neural network are used to determine the factors which explain the decision to place a child in out-of-home care. As well as developing a new model for 2009, a previous study using 2005 data is replicated. While there are many small differences, the four estimation techniques give broadly the same results, demonstrating the robustness of the results. Similarly, apart from age and sexual abuse, the 2005 and 2009 results are roughly similar. For 2009, child characteristics (particularly child emotional problems) are more important than the nature of the abuse and the situation of the household; while caregiver characteristics are the least important. All these models have low explanatory power.

Epoxide ring opening in a zinc(II) complex in water without any Lewis acid catalyst: formation of only one diastereomer out of 2

The epoxide ring in 5,6-dihydro-5,6-epoxy-1,10-phenanthroline (L) opens up in its reaction with 4-methylaniline and 4-methoxyaniline in water in equimolar proportion at room temperature without any Lewis acid catalyst to give a monohydrate of 6-(4-methyl-phenylamino)-5,6-dihydro-1,10-phenanthrolin-5-ol (L′·H2O) and 6-(4-methoxyphenyl-amino)-5,6-dihydro-1,10-phenanthrolin-5-ol (L″) respectively. Reaction time decreases from 72 to 14 h in boiling water. But the yields become less. Reaction of L with Zn(ClO4)2·6H2O in methanol in 3:1 molar ratio at room temperature affords white [ZnL3](ClO4)2·H2O. The X-ray crystal structure of the acetonitrile solvate [ZnL3](ClO4)2·MeCN has been determined which shows that the metal has a distorted octahedral N6 coordination sphere. [ZnL3](ClO4)2·2H2O reacts with 4-methylaniline and 4-methoxyaniline in boiling water in 1:3 molar proportion in the absence of any Lewis acid catalyst to produce [ZnL′3](ClO4)2·4H2O and [ZnL″3](ClO4)2·H2O, respectively in 1–4 h time in somewhat low yield. In the 1H NMR spectra of [ZnL′3](ClO4)2·4H2O and [ZnL″3](ClO4)2·H2O, only one sharp methyl signal is observed implicating that only one diastereomer out of the 23 possibilities is formed. The same diastereomers are obtained when L′·H2O and L″ are reacted directly with Zn(ClO4)2·6H2O in tetrahydrofuran at room temperature in very good yields. Reactions of L′·H2O and L″ with Ru(phen)2Cl2·2H2O (phen = 1,10-phenanthroline) in equimolar proportion in methanol–water mixture under refluxing condition lead to the isolation of two diastereomers of [Ru(phen)2L′](ClO4)2·2H2O and [Ru(phen)2L″](ClO4)2·2H2O.

'Out Vile Jelly': Sarah Kane's 'Blasted' & Shakespeare's 'King Lear'

Sarah Kane's notorious 1995 debut, Blasted, has been widely though belatedly recognized as a defining example of experiential or ‘in-yer-face’ theatre. However, Graham Saunders here argues that the best playwrights not only innovate in use of language and dramatic form, but also rewrite the classic plays of the past. He believes that too much stress has been placed on the play's radical structure and contemporary sensibility, with the effect of obscuring the influence of Shakespearean tradition on its genesis and content. He clarifies Kane's gradually dawning awareness of the influence of Shakespeare's King Lear on her work and how elements of that tragedy were rewritten in terms of dialogue, recast thematically, and reworked in terms of theatrical image. He sees Blasted as both a response to contemporary reality and an engagement with the history of drama. Graham Saunders is Senior Lecturer in Theatre Studies at the University of the West of England, Bristol, and author of the first full-length study of Kane's work: ‘Love Me or Kill Me’: Sarah Kane and the Theatre of Extremes (Manchester University Press, 2002). An earlier version of this article was given as a paper at the ‘Crucible of Cultures: Anglophone Drama at the Dawn of a New Millennium’ conference in Brussels, May 2001. Saunders is currently working on articles about Samuel Beckett and Edward Bond

Mapping the trickle out benefits of social and environmental enterprises: a pilot study of an East African eco business

• Objectives The objective of this paper is to propose a framework for mapping the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of social and environmental enterprises in Africa. This framework is then piloted with reference to an East African Ecobusiness. • Prior Work This paper is based on data collected as part of a wider research project examining social and environmental enterprises across the 19 countries of Southern and Eastern Africa. In total, the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of 20 in-depth case studies in 4 countries are being examined. • Approach Data was collected using in-depth interviews with multiple stakeholders associated with the case study business. Secondary materials were also analysed and a quantitative survey of customers undertaken. • Results In addition to their impacts on the environment, African eco businesses can also have substantial social, economic and wider poverty alleviation impacts. This paper maps the impacts of a case study East African ecobusiness, as part of developing a social and environmental enterprise impact framework for Africa and the wider developing world. In our case study, positive and negative impacts are identified, while questions are raised in relation to tradeoffs between social and environmental objectives and temporal dimensions of impact. The usefulness of existing frameworks for understanding the social, environmental and development impacts of these kinds of organisations are also considered. • Implications This paper outlines the necessity of building an African-centric impact map to capture the multi-level poverty alleviation and sustainable development impacts of social and environmental enterprise activity in developing world environments. The framework proposed also offers guidance to businesses operating in Africa about the factors that might be considered as part of their wider social and environmental responsibilities. • Value Assessing the impact of social and environmental enterprises, especially as a route to development within low income countries, is receiving increasing attention in academia and beyond. This paper presents a useful contribution to the scarce literature on social and environmental enterprises in Africa.

Thinking out of the box – skills for work

Since the Dearing Report .1 there has been an increased emphasis on the development of employability and transferable (‘soft’) skills in undergraduate programmes. Within STEM subject areas, recent reports concluded that universities should offer ‘greater and more sustainable variety in modes of study to meet the changing demands of industry and students’.2 At the same time, higher education (HE) institutions are increasingly conscious of the sensitivity of league table positions on employment statistics and graduate destinations. Modules that are either credit or non-credit bearing are finding their way into the core curriculum at HE. While the UK government and other educational bodies argue the way forward over A-level reform, universities must also meet the needs of their first year cohorts in terms of the secondary to tertiary transition and developing independence in learning.

Motivational, emotional, and behavioral correlates of fear of missing out

Social media utilities have made it easier than ever to know about the range of online or offline social activities one could be engaging. On the upside, these social resources provide a multitude of opportunities for interaction; on the downside, they often broadcast more options than can be pursued, given practical restrictions and limited time. This dual nature of social media has driven popular interest in the concept of Fear of Missing Out – popularly referred to as FoMO. Defined as a pervasive apprehension that others might be having rewarding experiences from which one is absent, FoMO is characterized by the desire to stay continually connected with what others are doing. The present research presents three studies conducted to advance an empirically based understanding of the fear of missing out phenomenon. The first study collected a diverse international sample of participants in order to create a robust individual differences measure of FoMO, the Fear of Missing Out scale (FoMOs); this study is the first to operationalize the construct. Study 2 recruited a nationally representative cohort to investigate how demographic, motivational and well-being factors relate to FoMO. Study 3 examined the behavioral and emotional correlates of fear of missing out in a sample of young adults. Implications of the FoMOs measure and for the future study of FoMO are discussed.

Drivers of in-group and out-of-group electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM)

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to address a recent call for additional research on electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM). In response to this call, this study draws on the social network paradigm and the uses and gratification theory (UGT) to propose and empirically test a conceptual framework of key drivers of two types of eWOM, namely in-group and out-of-group. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed model, which examines the impact of usage motivations on eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group, is tested in a sample of 302 internet users in Portugal. Findings – Results from the survey show that the different drivers (i.e. mood-enhancement, escapism, experiential learning and social interaction) vary in terms of their impact on the two different types of eWOM. Surprisingly, while results show a positive relationship between experiential learning and eWOM out-of-group, no relationship is found between experiential learning and eWOM in-group. Research limitations/implications – This is the first study investigating the drivers of both eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group. Additional research in this area will contribute to the development of a general theory of eWOM. Practical implications – By understanding the drivers of different eWOM types, this study provides guidance to marketing managers on how to allocate resources more efficiently in order to achieve the company's strategic objectives. Originality/value – No published study has investigated the determinants of these two types of eWOM. This is the first study offering empirical considerations of how the various drivers differentially impact eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group.

Terrorism and electoral accountability: one strike, you're out!

We examine the relationship between terrorism and electoral accountability. We find that terror has a robust positive effect on the probability that the incumbent government is replaced. The magnitude of the effect increases with the severity of the terrorist attack.

A radial basis function network classifier to maximise leave-one-out mutual information

tWe develop an orthogonal forward selection (OFS) approach to construct radial basis function (RBF)network classifiers for two-class problems. Our approach integrates several concepts in probabilisticmodelling, including cross validation, mutual information and Bayesian hyperparameter fitting. At eachstage of the OFS procedure, one model term is selected by maximising the leave-one-out mutual infor-mation (LOOMI) between the classifier’s predicted class labels and the true class labels. We derive theformula of LOOMI within the OFS framework so that the LOOMI can be evaluated efficiently for modelterm selection. Furthermore, a Bayesian procedure of hyperparameter fitting is also integrated into theeach stage of the OFS to infer the l2-norm based local regularisation parameter from the data. Since eachforward stage is effectively fitting of a one-variable model, this task is very fast. The classifier construc-tion procedure is automatically terminated without the need of using additional stopping criterion toyield very sparse RBF classifiers with excellent classification generalisation performance, which is par-ticular useful for the noisy data sets with highly overlapping class distribution. A number of benchmarkexamples are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Drivers of in‐group and out‐of‐group electronic word‐of‐mouth (eWOM)

Purpose– The purpose of this study is to address a recent call for additional research on electronic word‐of‐mouth (eWOM). In response to this call, this study draws on the social network paradigm and the uses and gratification theory (UGT) to propose and empirically test a conceptual framework of key drivers of two types of eWOM, namely in‐group and out‐of‐group. Design/methodology/approach– The proposed model, which examines the impact of usage motivations on eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group, is tested in a sample of 302 internet users in Portugal. Findings– Results from the survey show that the different drivers (i.e. mood‐enhancement, escapism, experiential learning and social interaction) vary in terms of their impact on the two different types of eWOM. Surprisingly, while results show a positive relationship between experiential learning and eWOM out‐of‐group, no relationship is found between experiential learning and eWOM in‐group. Research limitations/implications– This is the first study investigating the drivers of both eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group. Additional research in this area will contribute to the development of a general theory of eWOM. Practical implications– By understanding the drivers of different eWOM types, this study provides guidance to marketing managers on how to allocate resources more efficiently in order to achieve the company's strategic objectives. Originality/value– No published study has investigated the determinants of these two types of eWOM. This is the first study offering empirical considerations of how the various drivers differentially impact eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group.

Second Strike and you are (finally) out? The Quashing of the Prevention of Infiltration Law (Amendment no. 4)

The blog-post critically analyses the Israeli Supreme Court judgment (HCJ 8425/13 Anon v. Knesset et al) quashing the Prevention of Infiltration Law (Amendment no. 4), offering themes of comparative constitutional interest.