An analysis of commercial real estate returns: is there a smoothing puzzle?

In this paper we investigate the commonly used autoregressive filter method of adjusting appraisal-based real estate returns to correct for the perceived biases induced in the appraisal process. Since the early work by Geltner (1989), many papers have been written on this topic but remarkably few have considered the relationship between smoothing at the individual property level and the amount of persistence in the aggregate appraised-based index. To investigate this issue in more detail we analyse a sample of individual property level appraisal data from the Investment Property Database (IPD). We find that commonly used unsmoothing estimates overstate the extent of smoothing that takes place at the individual property level. There is also strong support for an ARFIMA representation of appraisal returns.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

On merging gradient estimation with mean-tracking techniques for cluster identification

This paper discusses how numerical gradient estimation methods may be used in order to reduce the computational demands on a class of multidimensional clustering algorithms. The study is motivated by the recognition that several current point-density based cluster identification algorithms could benefit from a reduction of computational demand if approximate a-priori estimates of the cluster centres present in a given data set could be supplied as starting conditions for these algorithms. In this particular presentation, the algorithm shown to benefit from the technique is the Mean-Tracking (M-T) cluster algorithm, but the results obtained from the gradient estimation approach may also be applied to other clustering algorithms and their related disciplines.

Techniques for image analysis of movement of juveniles of root-knot nematodes encumbered with Pasteuria penetrans spores

Root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.) are the most significant plant-parasitic nematodes that damage many crops all over the world. The free-living second stage juvenile (J2) is the infective stage that enters plants. The J2s move in the soil water films to reach the root zone. The bacterium Pasteuria penetrans is an obligate parasite of root-knot nematodes, is cosmopolitan, frequently encountered in many climates and environmental conditions and is considered promising for the control of Meloidogyne spp. The infection potential of P. penetrans to nematodes is well studied but not the attachment effects on the movement of root-knot nematode juveniles, image analysis techniques were used to characterize movement of individual juveniles with or without P. penetrans spores attached to their cuticles. Methods include the study of nematode locomotion based on (a) the centroid body point, (b) shape analysis and (c) image stack analysis. All methods proved that individual J2s without P. penetrans spores attached have a sinusoidal forward movement compared with those encumbered with spores. From these separate analytical studies of encumbered and unencumbered nematodes, it was possible to demonstrate how the presence of P. penetrans spores on a nematode body disrupted the normal movement of the nematode.

Electron paramagnetic resonance investigation of the free radicals in the gas and particulate phases of cigarette smoke using spin-trapping techniques

Free radicals in cigarette smoke have been studied using spin trapping EPR techniques. 2R4F reference cigarettes were smoked using 35 ml puff volumes of 2 seconds duration, once every 60 seconds. The particulate phase of the smoke was separated from the gas phase by passing the smoke through a Cambridge filter pad. For both phases, free radicals were measured and identified. A range of spin-traps was employed: PBN, DMPO, DEPMPO, and DPPH-PBN. In the gas-phase, short-lived carbon- and oxygen- centered radicals were identified; the ratios between them changed during the smoking runs. For the first puffs, C-centered radicals predominated while for the later puffs, O-centered radicals were mainly observed. The particulate phase and the ‘tar’ were studied as well.

Cursor relocation techniques to help older adults find 'lost' cursors

Older adult computer users often lose track of the mouse cursor and so resort to methods such as mouse shaking or searching the screen to find the cursor again. Hence, this paper describes how a standard optical mouse was modified to include a touch sensor, activated by releasing and touching the mouse, which automatically centers the mouse cursor to the screen, potentially making it easier to find a 'lost' cursor. Six older adult computer users and six younger computer users were asked to compare the touch sensitive mouse with cursor centering with two alternative techniques for locating the mouse cursor: manually shaking the mouse and using the Windows sonar facility. The time taken to click on a target following a distractor task was recorded, and results show that centering the mouse was the fastest to use, with a 35% improvement over shaking the mouse. Five out of six older participants ranked the touch sensitive mouse with cursor centering as the easiest to use.