Rerum cognoscere causas: part II - opportunities generated by the agency/structure debate and suggestions for clarifying the social theoretic position of system dynamics

This is the second half of a two-part paper dealing with the social theoretic assumptions underlying system dynamics. In the first half it was concluded that analysing system dynamics using traditional, paradigm-based social theories is highly problematic. An innovative and potentially fruitful resolution is now proposed to these problems. In the first section it is argued that in order to find an appropriate social theoretic home for system dynamics it is necessary to look to a key exchange in contemporary social science: the agency/structure debate. This debate aims to move beyond both the theories based only on the actions of individual human agents, and those theories that emphasise only structural influences. Emerging from this debate are various theories that instead aim to unite the human agent view of the social realm with views that concentrate solely on system structure. It is argued that system dynamics is best viewed as being implicitly grounded in such theories. The main conclusion is therefore that system dynamics can contribute to an important part of social thinking by providing a formal approach for explicating social mechanisms. This conclusion is of general significance for system dynamics. However, the over-arching aim of the two-part paper is to increase the understanding of system dynamics in related disciplines. Four suggestions are therefore offered for how the system dynamics method might be extended further into the social sciences. It is argued that, presented in the right way, the formal yet contingent feedback causality thinking of system dynamics should diffuse widely in the social sciences and make a distinctive and important contribution to them. Felix qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas Happy is he who comes to know the causes of things Virgil - Georgics, Book II, line 490. 29 BCE

Excitation and decay of solar-wind driven flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Basic concepts of the form of high-latitude ionospheric flows and their excitation and decay are discussed in the light of recent high time-resolution measurements made by ground-based radars. It is first pointed out that it is in principle impossible to adequately parameterize these flows by any single quantity derived from concurrent interplanetary conditions. Rather, even at its simplest, the flow must be considered to consist of two basic time-dependent components. The first is the flow driven by magnetopause coupling processes alone, principally by dayside reconnection. These flows may indeed be reasonably parameterized in terms of concurrent near-Earth interplanetary conditions, principally by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector. The second is the flow driven by tail reconnection alone. As a first approximation these flows may also be parameterized in terms of interplanetary conditions, principally the north-south component of the IMF, but with a delay in the flow response of around 30-60 min relative to the IMF. A delay in the tail response of this order must be present due to the finite speed of information propagation in the system, and we show how "growth" and "decay" of the field and flow configuration then follow as natural consequences. To discuss the excitation and decay of the two reconnection-driven components of the flow we introduce that concept of a flow-free equilibrium configuration for a magnetosphere which contains a given (arbitrary) amount of open flux. Reconnection events act either to create or destroy open flux, thus causing departures of the system from the equilibrium configuration. Flow is then excited which moves the system back towards equilibrium with the changed amount of open flux. We estimate that the overall time scale associated with the excitation and decay of the flow is about 15 min. The response of the system to both impulsive (flux transfer event) and continuous reconnection is discussed in these terms.

A simple method for integrating a complex model into an ensemble data assimilation system using MPI

This paper details a strategy for modifying the source code of a complex model so that the model may be used in a data assimilation context, {and gives the standards for implementing a data assimilation code to use such a model}. The strategy relies on keeping the model separate from any data assimilation code, and coupling the two through the use of Message Passing Interface (MPI) {functionality}. This strategy limits the changes necessary to the model and as such is rapid to program, at the expense of ultimate performance. The implementation technique is applied in different models with state dimension up to $2.7 \times 10^8$. The overheads added by using this implementation strategy in a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model are shown to be an order of magnitude smaller than the addition of correlated stochastic random errors necessary for some nonlinear data assimilation techniques.

The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system

In general, particle filters need large numbers of model runs in order to avoid filter degeneracy in high-dimensional systems. The recently proposed, fully nonlinear equivalent-weights particle filter overcomes this requirement by replacing the standard model transition density with two different proposal transition densities. The first proposal density is used to relax all particles towards the high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations. The crucial second proposal density is then used to ensure that the majority of particles have equivalent weights at observation time. Here, the performance of the scheme in a high, 65 500 dimensional, simplified ocean model is explored. The success of the equivalent-weights particle filter in matching the true model state is shown using the mean of just 32 particles in twin experiments. It is of particular significance that this remains true even as the number and spatial variability of the observations are changed. The results from rank histograms are less easy to interpret and can be influenced considerably by the parameter values used. This article also explores the sensitivity of the performance of the scheme to the chosen parameter values and the effect of using different model error parameters in the truth compared with the ensemble model runs.

Evaluating perceptual separation in a pilot system for affective composition

Research evaluating perceptual responses to music has identified many structural features as correlates that might be incorporated in computer music systems for affectively charged algorithmic composition and/or expressive music performance. In order to investigate the possible integration of isolated musical features to such a system, a discrete feature known to correlate some with emotional responses – rhythmic density – was selected from a literature review and incorporated into a prototype system. This system produces variation in rhythm density via a transformative process. A stimulus set created using this system was then subjected to a perceptual evaluation. Pairwise comparisons were used to scale differences between 48 stimuli. Listener responses were analysed with Multidimensional scaling (MDS). The 2-Dimensional solution was then rotated to place the stimuli with the largest range of variation across the horizontal plane. Stimuli with variation in rhythmic density were placed further from the source material than stimuli that were generated by random permutation. This, combined with the striking similarity between the MDS scaling and that of the 2-dimensional emotional model used by some affective algorithmic composition systems, suggests that isolated musical feature manipulation can now be used to parametrically control affectively charged automated composition in a larger system.

Feasibility study on EEG driven robotic system to realize efficient stroke rehabilitation

We aim to develop an efficient robotic system for stroke rehabilitation, in which a robotic arm moves the hemiplegic upper limb when the patient tries to move it. In order to achieve this goal we have considered a method to detect the patient's intended motion using EEG (Electroencephalogram), and have designed a rehabilitation robot based on a Redundant Drive Method. In this paper, we propose an EEG driven rehabilitation robot system and present initial results evaluating the feasibility of the proposed system.

Governing calculative practices: An investigation of development viability modelling in the English planning system

Over the last decade the English planning system has placed greater emphasis on the financial viability of development. ‘Calculative’ practices have been used to quantify and capture land value uplifts. Development viability appraisal (DVA) has become a key part of the evidence base used in planning decision-making and informs both ‘site-specific’ negotiations about the level of land value capture for individual schemes and ‘area-wide’ planning policy formation. This paper investigates how implementation of DVA is governed in planning policy formation. It is argued that the increased use of DVA raises important questions about how planning decisions are made and operationalised, not least because DVA is often poorly understood by some key stakeholders. The paper uses the concept of governance to thematically analyse semi-structured interviews conducted with the producers of DVAs and considers key procedural issues including (in)consistencies in appraisal practices, levels of stakeholder consultation and the potential for client and producer bias. Whilst stakeholder consultation is shown to be integral to the appraisal process in order to improve the quality of the appraisals and to legitimise the outputs, participation is restricted to industry experts and excludes some interest groups, including local communities. It is concluded that, largely because of its recent adoption and knowledge asymmetries between local planning authorities and appraisers, DVA is a weakly governed process characterised by emerging and contested guidance and is therefore ‘up for grabs’.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Managing the complexity of information flow for construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs) using system dynamics and collaborative technologies

With the increase in e-commerce and the digitisation of design data and information,the construction sector has become reliant upon IT infrastructure and systems. The design and production process is more complex, more interconnected, and reliant upon greater information mobility, with seamless exchange of data and information in real time. Construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs), in particular,the speciality contractors, can effectively utilise cost-effective collaboration-enabling technologies, such as cloud computing, to help in the effective transfer of information and data to improve productivity. The system dynamics (SD) approach offers a perspective and tools to enable a better understanding of the dynamics of complex systems. This research focuses upon system dynamics methodology as a modelling and analysis tool in order to understand and identify the key drivers in the absorption of cloud computing for CSMEs. The aim of this paper is to determine how the use of system dynamics (SD) can improve the management of information flow through collaborative technologies leading to improved productivity. The data supporting the use of system dynamics was obtained through a pilot study consisting of questionnaires and interviews from five CSMEs in the UK house-building sector.