An Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS)

Current methods for estimating vegetation parameters are generally sub-optimal in the way they exploit information and do not generally consider uncertainties. We look forward to a future where operational dataassimilation schemes improve estimates by tracking land surface processes and exploiting multiple types of observations. Dataassimilation schemes seek to combine observations and models in a statistically optimal way taking into account uncertainty in both, but have not yet been much exploited in this area. The EO-LDAS scheme and prototype, developed under ESA funding, is designed to exploit the anticipated wealth of data that will be available under GMES missions, such as the Sentinel family of satellites, to provide improved mapping of land surface biophysical parameters. This paper describes the EO-LDAS implementation, and explores some of its core functionality. EO-LDAS is a weak constraint variational dataassimilationsystem. The prototype provides a mechanism for constraint based on a prior estimate of the state vector, a linear dynamic model, and EarthObservationdata (top-of-canopy reflectance here). The observation operator is a non-linear optical radiative transfer model for a vegetation canopy with a soil lower boundary, operating over the range 400 to 2500 nm. Adjoint codes for all model and operator components are provided in the prototype by automatic differentiation of the computer codes. In this paper, EO-LDAS is applied to the problem of daily estimation of six of the parameters controlling the radiative transfer operator over the course of a year (> 2000 state vector elements). Zero and first order process model constraints are implemented and explored as the dynamic model. The assimilation estimates all state vector elements simultaneously. This is performed in the context of a typical Sentinel-2 MSI operating scenario, using synthetic MSI observations simulated with the observation operator, with uncertainties typical of those achieved by optical sensors supposed for the data. The experiments consider a baseline state vector estimation case where dynamic constraints are applied, and assess the impact of dynamic constraints on the a posteriori uncertainties. The results demonstrate that reductions in uncertainty by a factor of up to two might be obtained by applying the sorts of dynamic constraints used here. The hyperparameter (dynamic model uncertainty) required to control the assimilation are estimated by a cross-validation exercise. The result of the assimilation is seen to be robust to missing observations with quite large data gaps.

Temporal constraints on linear BRDF model parameters

Linear models of bidirectional reflectance distribution are useful tools for understanding the angular variability of surface reflectance as observed by medium-resolution sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. These models are operationally used to normalize data to common view and illumination geometries and to calculate integral quantities such as albedo. Currently, to compensate for noise in observed reflectance, these models are inverted against data collected during some temporal window for which the model parameters are assumed to be constant. Despite this, the retrieved parameters are often noisy for regions where sufficient observations are not available. This paper demonstrates the use of Lagrangian multipliers to allow arbitrarily large windows and, at the same time, produce individual parameter sets for each day even for regions where only sparse observations are available.

Determination of tube theory parameters using a simple grid model as an example

Although the tube theory is successful in describing entangled polymers qualitatively, a more quantitative description requires precise and consistent definitions of its parameters. Here we investigate the simplest model of entangled polymers, namely a single Rouse chain in a cubic lattice of line obstacles, and illustrate the typical problems and uncertainties of the tube theory. In particular we show that in general one needs 3 entanglement related parameters, but only 2 combinations of them are relevant for the long-time dynamics. Conversely, the plateau modulus can not be determined from these two parameters and requires a more detailed model of entanglements with explicit entanglement forces, such as the slipsprings model. It is shown that for the grid model the Rouse time within the tube is larger than the Rouse time of the free chain, in contrast to what the standard tube theory assumes.

Estimation of optimal gravity wave parameters for climate models using data assimilation

There is a current need to constrain the parameters of gravity wave drag (GWD) schemes in climate models using observational information instead of tuning them subjectively. In this work, an inverse technique is developed using data assimilation principles to estimate gravity wave parameters. Because mostGWDschemes assume instantaneous vertical propagation of gravity waves within a column, observations in a single column can be used to formulate a one-dimensional assimilation problem to estimate the unknown parameters. We define a cost function that measures the differences between the unresolved drag inferred from observations (referred to here as the ‘observed’ GWD) and the GWD calculated with a parametrisation scheme. The geometry of the cost function presents some difficulties, including multiple minima and ill-conditioning because of the non-independence of the gravity wave parameters. To overcome these difficulties we propose a genetic algorithm to minimize the cost function, which provides a robust parameter estimation over a broad range of prescribed ‘true’ parameters. When real experiments using an independent estimate of the ‘observed’ GWD are performed, physically unrealistic values of the parameters can result due to the non-independence of the parameters. However, by constraining one of the parameters to lie within a physically realistic range, this degeneracy is broken and the other parameters are also found to lie within physically realistic ranges. This argues for the essential physical self-consistency of the gravity wave scheme. A much better fit to the observed GWD at high latitudes is obtained when the parameters are allowed to vary with latitude. However, a close fit can be obtained either in the upper or the lower part of the profiles, but not in both at the same time. This result is a consequence of assuming an isotropic launch spectrum. The changes of sign in theGWDfound in the tropical lower stratosphere, which are associated with part of the quasi-biennial oscillation forcing, cannot be captured by the parametrisation with optimal parameters.

Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

Estimation of visual motion parameters used for bio-inspired navigation

Visual motion cues play an important role in animal and humans locomotion without the need to extract actual ego-motion information. This paper demonstrates a method for estimating the visual motion parameters, namely the Time-To-Contact (TTC), Focus of Expansion (FOE), and image angular velocities, from a sparse optical flow estimation registered from a downward looking camera. The presented method is capable of estimating the visual motion parameters in a complicated 6 degrees of freedom motion and in real time with suitable accuracy for mobile robots visual navigation.

Effect of breadmaking process on In Vitro gut microbiota parameters in irritable bowel syndrome

A variety of foods have been implicated in symptoms of patients with Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) but wheat products are most frequently cited by patients as a trigger. Our aim was to investigate the effects of breads, which were fermented for different lengths of time, on the colonic microbiota using in vitro batch culture experiments. A set of in vitro anaerobic culture systems were run over a period of 24 h using faeces from 3 different IBS donors (Rome Criteria–mainly constipated) and 3 healthy donors. Changes in gut microbiota during a time course were identified by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH), whilst the small -molecular weight metabolomic profile was determined by NMR analysis. Gas production was separately investigated in non pH-controlled, 36 h batch culture experiments. Numbers of bifidobacteria were higher in healthy subjects compared to IBS donors. In addition, the healthy donors showed a significant increase in bifidobacteria (P<0.005) after 8 h of fermentation of a bread produced using a sourdough process (type C) compared to breads produced with commercial yeasted dough (type B) and no time fermentation (Chorleywood Breadmaking process) (type A). A significant decrease of δ-Proteobacteria and most Gemmatimonadetes species was observed after 24 h fermentation of type C bread in both IBS and healthy donors. In general, IBS donors showed higher rates of gas production compared to healthy donors. Rates of gas production for type A and conventional long fermentation (type B) breads were almost identical in IBS and healthy donors. Sourdough bread produced significantly lower cumulative gas after 15 h fermentation as compared to type A and B breads in IBS donors but not in the healthy controls. In conclusion, breads fermented by the traditional long fermentation and sourdough are less likely to lead to IBS symptoms compared to bread made using the Chorleywood Breadmaking Process.

Operating models for a multi-polar world: balancing global integration and local responsiveness

Purpose – Multinationals have always needed an operating model that works – an effective plan for executing their most important activities at the right levels of their organization, whether globally, regionally or locally. The choices involved in these decisions have never been obvious, since international firms have consistently faced trade‐offs between tailoring approaches for diverse local markets and leveraging their global scale. This paper seeks a more in‐depth understanding of how successful firms manage the global‐local trade‐off in a multipolar world. Design methodology/approach – This paper utilizes a case study approach based on in‐depth senior executive interviews at several telecommunications companies including Tata Communications. The interviews probed the operating models of the companies we studied, focusing on their approaches to organization structure, management processes, management technologies (including information technology (IT)) and people/talent. Findings – Successful companies balance global‐local trade‐offs by taking a flexible and tailored approach toward their operating‐model decisions. The paper finds that successful companies, including Tata Communications, which is profiled in‐depth, are breaking up the global‐local conundrum into a set of more manageable strategic problems – what the authors call “pressure points” – which they identify by assessing their most important activities and capabilities and determining the global and local challenges associated with them. They then design a different operating model solution for each pressure point, and repeat this process as new strategic developments emerge. By doing so they not only enhance their agility, but they also continually calibrate that crucial balance between global efficiency and local responsiveness. Originality/value – This paper takes a unique approach to operating model design, finding that an operating model is better viewed as several distinct solutions to specific “pressure points” rather than a single and inflexible model that addresses all challenges equally. Now more than ever, developing the right operating model is at the top of multinational executives' priorities, and an area of increasing concern; the international business arena has changed drastically, requiring thoughtfulness and flexibility instead of standard formulas for operating internationally. Old adages like “think global and act local” no longer provide the universal guidance they once seemed to.

Dynamic auroral structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp - multipoint observations during southward and northward IMF

The low- and high-latitude boundary layers of the earth's magnetosphere [low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and mantle] play important roles in transferring momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Particle precipitation, field-aligned current, auroral emission, ionospheric ion drift and ground magnetic perturbations are among the low-altitude parameters that show signatures of various plasma processes in the LLBL and the magnetopause current layer. Magnetic merging events, Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, and pressure pulses excited by the variable solar wind/magnetosheath plasma are examples of boundary phenomena that may be coupled to the ionosphere via field-aligned currents. Optical auroral observation, by photometry and all-sky TV cameras, is a unique technique for investigating the spatial and temporal structure of the electron precipitation associated with such phenomena. However, the distinction between the different boundary layer plasma populations cannot in general be unambiguously determined by optics alone. Additional information, such as satellite observations of particle boundaries and field-aligned currents, is needed in order to identify the plasma source(s) and the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mode(s). Two categories of auroral activity/structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp are discussed in this paper, based on combined ground and satellite data. In one case, the quasi-periodic sequence of auroral events at the polar cap boundary involves accelerated electrons (< 1 keV) moving poleward (< 1 km s-1) and azimuthally along the persistent cusp/cleft arc poleward boundary with velocities (< 4 km s-1), comparable to the local ionospheric ion drift during periods of southward IMF. A critical question is whether or not the optical events signify a corresponding plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary in such cases. Near-simultaneous observations of magnetopause flux transfer events (FTEs) and such optical/ion drift events are reported. The reverse pattern of motion of discrete auroral forms is observed during positive interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(Z), i.e. equatorward motion into the cusp/cleft background arc from the poleward edge. Combined satellite and ground-based information for the latter cases indicate a source mechanism, poleward of the cusp at the high-latitude magnetopause or plasma mantle, giving rise to strong momentum transfer and electron precipitation structures within a approximately 200 km-wide latitudinal zone at the cusp/cleft poleward boundary. The striking similarities of auroral electrodynamics in the cleft/mantle region during northward and southward IMF indicate that a qualitatively similar solar wind-magnetosphere coupling mode is operating. It is suggested that, in both cases, the discrete auroral forms represent temporal/spatial structure of larger-scale convection over the polar magnetosphere.

The carbon dioxide production rate assumption biases gastric emptying parameters in healthy adults

RATIONALE: An altered gastric emptying (GE) rate has been implicated in the aetiology of obesity. The (13)C-octanoic acid breath test (OBT) is frequently used to measure GE, and the cumulative percentage of (13)C recovered (cPDR) is a common outcome measure. However, true cPDR in breath is dependent on accurate measurement of carbon dioxide production rate (VCO(2)). The current study aimed to quantify differences in the (13)C OBT results obtained using directly measured VCO(2) (VCO(2DM)) compared with (i) predicted from resting VCO(2) (VCO(2PR)) and (ii) predicted from body surface area VCO(2) (VCO(2BSA)). METHODS: The GE rate of a high-fat test meal was assessed in 27 lean subjects using the OBT. Breath samples were gathered during the fasted state and at regular intervals throughout the 6-h postprandial period for determination of (13)C-isotopic enrichment by continuous-flow isotope-ratio mass spectrometry. The VCO(2) was measured directly from exhaled air samples and the PDR calculated by three methods. The bias and the limits of agreement were calculated using Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Compared with the VCO(2DM), the cPDR was underestimated by VCO(2PR) (4.8%; p = 0.0001) and VCO(2BSA) (2.7%; p = 0.02). The GE T(half) was underestimated by VCO(2PR) (13 min; p = 0.0001) and VCO(2BSA) (10 min; p = 0.01), compared with VCO(2DM). CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the importance of directly measuring VCO(2)production rates throughout the (13)C OBT and could partly explain the conflicting evidence regarding the effect of obesity on GE rates.

Bond graph models of DC-DC converters operating in both CCM and DCM

In this paper, Bond Graphs are employed to develop a novel mathematical model of conventional switched-mode DC-DC converters valid for both continuous and discontinuous conduction modes. A unique causality bond graph model of hybrid models is suggested with the operation of the switch and the diode to be represented by a Modulated Transformer with a binary input and a resistor with fixed conductance causality. The operation of the diode is controlled using an if-then function within the model. The extracted hybrid model is implemented on a Boost and Buck converter with their operations to change from CCM to DCM and to return to CCM. The vector fields of the models show validity in a wide operation area and comparison with the simulation of the converters using PSPICE reveals high accuracy of the proposed model, with the Normalised Root Means Square Error and the Maximum Absolute Error remaining adequately low. The model is also experimentally tested on a Buck topology.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 1: Structure parameters

Scintillometry, a form of ground-based remote sensing, provides the capability to estimate surface heat fluxes over scales of a few hundred metres to kilometres. Measurements are spatial averages, making this technique particularly valuable over areas with moderate heterogeneity such as mixed agricultural or urban environments. In this study, we present the structure parameters of temperature and humidity, which can be related to the sensible and latent heat fluxes through similarity theory, for a suburban area in the UK. The fluxes are provided in the second paper of this two-part series. A millimetre-wave scintillometer was combined with an infrared scintillometer along a 5.5 km path over northern Swindon. The pairing of these two wavelengths offers sensitivity to both temperature and humidity fluctuations, and the correlation between wavelengths is also used to retrieve the path-averaged temperature–humidity correlation. Comparison is made with structure parameters calculated from an eddy covariance station located close to the centre of the scintillometer path. The performance of the measurement techniques under different conditions is discussed. Similar behaviour is seen between the two data sets at sub-daily timescales. For the two summer-to-winter periods presented here, similar evolution is displayed across the seasons. A higher vegetation fraction within the scintillometer source area is consistent with the lower Bowen ratio observed (midday Bowen ratio < 1) compared with more built-up areas around the eddy covariance station. The energy partitioning is further explored in the companion paper.

Influence of galacto-oligosaccharide mixture (B-GOS) on gut microbiota, immune parameters and metabonomics in elderly persons

It is recognised that ageing induces various changes to the human colonic microbiota. Most relevant is a reduction in bifidobacteria, which is a health-positive genus. Prebiotics, such as galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS), are dietary ingredients that selectively fortify beneficial gut microbial groups. Therefore, they have the potential to reverse the age-related decline in bifidobacteria and modulate associated health parameters. We assessed the effect of GOS mixture (Bimuno (B-GOS)) on gut microbiota, markers of immune function and metabolites in forty elderly (age 65-80 years) volunteers in a randomised, double-blind, placebo (maltodextrin)-controlled, cross-over study. The intervention periods consisted of 10 weeks with daily doses of 5·5 g/d with a 4-week washout period in between. Blood and faecal samples were collected for the analyses of faecal bacterial populations and immune and metabolic biomarkers. B-GOS consumption led to significant increases in bacteroides and bifidobacteria, the latter correlating with increased lactic acid in faecal waters. Higher IL-10, IL-8, natural killer cell activity and C-reactive protein and lower IL-1β were also observed. Administration of B-GOS to elderly volunteers may be useful in positively affecting the microbiota and some markers of immune function associated with ageing.