Macro-economic and financial determinants of comovement across global real estate security markets

This paper models the determinants of integration in the context of global real estate security markets. Using both local and U.S. Dollar denominated returns, we model conditional correlations across listed real estate sectors and also with the global stock market. The empirical results find that financial factors, such as the relationship with the respective equity market, volatility, the relative size of the real estate sector and trading turnover all play an important role in the degree of integration present. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of macro-economic variables in the degree of integration present. All four of the macro-economic variables modeled provide at least one significant result across the specifications estimated. Factors such as financial and trade openness, monetary independence and the stability of a country’s currency all contribute to the degree of integration reported.

Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia

We have compiled 223 sedimentary charcoal records from Australasia in order to examine the temporal and spatial variability of fire regimes during the Late Quaternary. While some of these records cover more than a full glacial cycle, here we focus on the last 70,000 years when the number of individual records in the compilation allows more robust conclusions. On orbital time scales, fire in Australasia predominantly reflects climate, with colder periods characterized by less and warmer intervals by more biomass burning. The composite record for the region also shows considerable millennial-scale variability during the last glacial interval (73.5–14.7 ka). Within the limits of the dating uncertainties of individual records, the variability shown by the composite charcoal record is more similar to the form, number and timing of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles as observed in Greenland ice cores than to the variability expressed in the Antarctic ice-core record. The composite charcoal record suggests increased biomass burning in the Australasian region during Greenland Interstadials and reduced burning during Greenland Stadials. Millennial-scale variability is characteristic of the composite record of the sub-tropical high pressure belt during the past 21 ka, but the tropics show a somewhat simpler pattern of variability with major peaks in biomass burning around 15 ka and 8 ka. There is no distinct change in fire regime corresponding to the arrival of humans in Australia at 50 ± 10 ka and no correlation between archaeological evidence of increased human activity during the past 40 ka and the history of biomass burning. However, changes in biomass burning in the last 200 years may have been exacerbated or influenced by humans.

Broker use and the cost of liquidity in commercial real estate investment

Purpose – Commercial real estate is a highly specific asset: heterogeneous, indivisible and with less information transparency than most other commonly held investment assets. These attributes encourage the use of intermediaries during asset acquisition and disposal. However, there are few attempts to explain the use of different brokerage models (with differing costs) in different markets. This study aims to address this gap. Design/methodology/approach – The study analyses 9,338 real estate transactions in London and New York City from 2001 to 2011. Data are provided by Real Capital Analytics and cover over $450 billion of investments in this period. Brokerage trends in the two cities are compared and probit regressions are used to test whether the decision to transact with broker representation varies with investor or asset characteristics. Findings – Results indicate greater use of brokerage in London, especially by purchasers. This persists when data are disaggregated by sector, time or investor type, pointing to the role of local market culture and institutions in shaping brokerage models and transaction costs. Within each city, the nature of the investors involved seems to be a more significant influence on broker use than the characteristics of the assets being traded. Originality/value – Brokerage costs are the single largest non-tax charge to an investor when trading commercial real estate, yet there is little research in this area. This study examines the role of brokers and provides empirical evidence on factors that influence the use and mode of brokerage in two major investment destinations.

The processing of number and gender agreement in Spanish: an event related potential investigation of the effects of structural distance

Previous research suggests that the processing of agreement is affected by the distance between the agreeing elements. However, the unique contribution of structural distance (number of intervening syntactic phrases) to the processing of agreement remains an open question, since previous investigations do not tease apart structural and linear distance (number of intervening words). We used event related potentials (ERPs) to examine the extent to which structural distance impacts the processing of Spanish number and gender agreement. Violations were realized both within the phrase and across the phrase. Across both levels of structural distance, linear distance was kept constant, as was the syntactic category of the agreeing elements. Number and gender agreement violations elicited a robust P600 between 400 and 900ms, a component associated with morphosyntactic processing. No amplitude differences were observed between number and gender violations, suggesting that the two features are processed similarly at the brain level. Within-phrase agreement yielded more positive waveforms than across-phrase agreement, both for agreement violations and for grammatical sentences (no agreement by distance interaction). These effects can be interpreted as evidence that structural distance impacts the establishment of agreement overall, consistent with sentence processing models which predict that hierarchical structure impacts the processing of syntactic dependencies. However, due to the lack of an agreement by distance interaction, the possibility cannot be ruled out that these effects are driven by differences in syntactic predictability between the within-phrase and across-phrase configurations, notably the fact that the syntactic category of the critical word was more predictable in the within-phrase conditions.

Characterisation of secondary metabolites associated with neutrophil apoptosis

We studied changes in secondary metabolites in human neutrophils undergoing constitutive or tumour necrosis factor (TNFalpha) stimulated apoptosis by a combination of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and NMR spectroscopy. Our results show that in contrast to freshly isolated neutrophils, neutrophil cells aged for 20 h in vitro had marked differences in the levels of a number of endogenous metabolites including lactate, amino acids and phosphocholine (PCho). There was no change in the concentration of taurine or glutamate and the ATP/ADP ratio was not affected. Levels of glutamine and lactate actually decreased. Identical changes were also observed in neutrophils stimulated to undergo apoptosis over a shorter time period (6 h) in the presence of TNFalpha and the phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase inhibitor wortmannin (WM). The changes in the concentration of PCho suggest possible activation of phospholipase associated with apoptosis or a selective failure of phosphatidycholine synthesis. The increased levels of apoptosis obtained with WM+TNFalpha, compared to TNFalpha by itself, suggest a synergistic effect by these compounds. The acceleration in rate of apoptosis probably arises from suppression by WM of pathway(s) that normally delay the onset of apoptosis. Changes in PCho and other endogenous metabolites, if proven to be characteristic of apoptosis in other cell systems, may permit non-invasive quantification of apoptosis. '

The importance of vertical velocity variability for estimates of the indirect aerosol effects

The activation of aerosols to form cloud droplets is dependent upon vertical velocities whose local variability is not typically resolved at the GCM grid scale. Consequently, it is necessary to represent the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in the calculation of cloud droplet number concentration. This study uses the UK Chemistry and Aerosols community model (UKCA) within the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM3), coupled for the first time to an explicit aerosol activation parameterisation, and hence known as UKCA-Activate. We explore the range of uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects attributable to the choice of parameterisation of the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in HadGEM-UKCA. Results of simulations demonstrate that the use of a characteristic vertical velocity cannot replicate results derived with a distribution of vertical velocities, and is to be discouraged in GCMs. This study focuses on the effect of the variance (σw2) of a Gaussian pdf (probability density function) of vertical velocity. Fixed values of σw (spanning the range measured in situ by nine flight campaigns found in the literature) and a configuration in which σw depends on turbulent kinetic energy are tested. Results from the mid-range fixed σw and TKE-based configurations both compare well with observed vertical velocity distributions and cloud droplet number concentrations. The radiative flux perturbation due to the total effects of anthropogenic aerosol is estimated at −1.9 W m−2 with σw = 0.1 m s−1, −2.1 W m−2 with σw derived from TKE, −2.25 W m−2 with σw = 0.4 m s−1, and −2.3 W m−2 with σw = 0.7 m s−1. The breadth of this range is 0.4 W m−2, which is comparable to a substantial fraction of the total diversity of current aerosol forcing estimates. Reducing the uncertainty in the parameterisation of σw would therefore be an important step towards reducing the uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects. Detailed examination of regional radiative flux perturbations reveals that aerosol microphysics can be responsible for some climate-relevant radiative effects, highlighting the importance of including microphysical aerosol processes in GCMs.

The impact of cross-border real estate investment on commercial real estate capitalisation rates

This study examines the impact of foreign real estate investment on the US office market capitalization rates. The geographic unit of analysis is MSA and the time period is 2001-2013. Drawing upon a database of commercial real estate transactions provided by Real Capital Analytics, we model the determinants of market capitalization rates with a particular focus on the significance of the proportion of market transactions involving foreign investors. We have employed several econometric techniques to explore the data, potential estimation biases, and test robustness of the results. The results suggest statistically significant effects of foreign investment across 38 US metro areas. It is estimated that, all else equal, a 100 basis points increase in foreign share of total investment in a US metropolitan office market causes about an 8 basis points decrease in the market cap rate.