Estimation of optimal gravity wave parameters for climate models using data assimilation

There is a current need to constrain the parameters of gravity wave drag (GWD) schemes in climate models using observational information instead of tuning them subjectively. In this work, an inverse technique is developed using data assimilation principles to estimate gravity wave parameters. Because mostGWDschemes assume instantaneous vertical propagation of gravity waves within a column, observations in a single column can be used to formulate a one-dimensional assimilation problem to estimate the unknown parameters. We define a cost function that measures the differences between the unresolved drag inferred from observations (referred to here as the ‘observed’ GWD) and the GWD calculated with a parametrisation scheme. The geometry of the cost function presents some difficulties, including multiple minima and ill-conditioning because of the non-independence of the gravity wave parameters. To overcome these difficulties we propose a genetic algorithm to minimize the cost function, which provides a robust parameter estimation over a broad range of prescribed ‘true’ parameters. When real experiments using an independent estimate of the ‘observed’ GWD are performed, physically unrealistic values of the parameters can result due to the non-independence of the parameters. However, by constraining one of the parameters to lie within a physically realistic range, this degeneracy is broken and the other parameters are also found to lie within physically realistic ranges. This argues for the essential physical self-consistency of the gravity wave scheme. A much better fit to the observed GWD at high latitudes is obtained when the parameters are allowed to vary with latitude. However, a close fit can be obtained either in the upper or the lower part of the profiles, but not in both at the same time. This result is a consequence of assuming an isotropic launch spectrum. The changes of sign in theGWDfound in the tropical lower stratosphere, which are associated with part of the quasi-biennial oscillation forcing, cannot be captured by the parametrisation with optimal parameters.

Realistic mean field forward predictions for the integration of co-registered EEG/fMRI

Brain activity can be measured non-invasively with functional imaging techniques. Each pixel in such an image represents a neural mass of about 105 to 107 neurons. Mean field models (MFMs) approximate their activity by averaging out neural variability while retaining salient underlying features, like neurotransmitter kinetics. However, MFMs incorporating the regional variability, realistic geometry and connectivity of cortex have so far appeared intractable. This lack of biological realism has led to a focus on gross temporal features of the EEG. We address these impediments and showcase a "proof of principle" forward prediction of co-registered EEG/fMRI for a full-size human cortex in a realistic head model with anatomical connectivity, see figure 1. MFMs usually assume homogeneous neural masses, isotropic long-range connectivity and simplistic signal expression to allow rapid computation with partial differential equations. But these approximations are insufficient in particular for the high spatial resolution obtained with fMRI, since different cortical areas vary in their architectonic and dynamical properties, have complex connectivity, and can contribute non-trivially to the measured signal. Our code instead supports the local variation of model parameters and freely chosen connectivity for many thousand triangulation nodes spanning a cortical surface extracted from structural MRI. This allows the introduction of realistic anatomical and physiological parameters for cortical areas and their connectivity, including both intra- and inter-area connections. Proper cortical folding and conduction through a realistic head model is then added to obtain accurate signal expression for a comparison to experimental data. To showcase the synergy of these computational developments, we predict simultaneously EEG and fMRI BOLD responses by adding an established model for neurovascular coupling and convolving "Balloon-Windkessel" hemodynamics. We also incorporate regional connectivity extracted from the CoCoMac database [1]. Importantly, these extensions can be easily adapted according to future insights and data. Furthermore, while our own simulation is based on one specific MFM [2], the computational framework is general and can be applied to models favored by the user. Finally, we provide a brief outlook on improving the integration of multi-modal imaging data through iterative fits of a single underlying MFM in this realistic simulation framework.

Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000–2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a presentday direct aerosol forcing of −0.49Wm−2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of −1.17Wm−2 obtained with GLOMAP-mode is 20% weaker than with CLASSIC. Results suggest that mass-based schemes such as CLASSIC lack the necessary sophistication to provide realistic input to aerosol-cloud interaction schemes. Furthermore, the importance of the 1850 baseline highlights how model skill in predicting present-day aerosol does not guarantee reliable forcing estimates. Those findings suggest that the more complex representation of aerosol processes in microphysical schemes improves the fidelity of simulated aerosol forcings.

Estimation of visual motion parameters used for bio-inspired navigation

Visual motion cues play an important role in animal and humans locomotion without the need to extract actual ego-motion information. This paper demonstrates a method for estimating the visual motion parameters, namely the Time-To-Contact (TTC), Focus of Expansion (FOE), and image angular velocities, from a sparse optical flow estimation registered from a downward looking camera. The presented method is capable of estimating the visual motion parameters in a complicated 6 degrees of freedom motion and in real time with suitable accuracy for mobile robots visual navigation.

N1 enhancement in synesthesia during visual and audio-visual perception in semantic cross-modal conflict situations: an ERP study

Synesthesia entails a special kind of sensory perception, where stimulation in one sensory modality leads to an internally generated perceptual experience of another, not stimulated sensory modality. This phenomenon can be viewed as an abnormal multisensory integration process as here the synesthetic percept is aberrantly fused with the stimulated modality. Indeed, recent synesthesia research has focused on multimodal processing even outside of the specific synesthesia-inducing context and has revealed changed multimodal integration, thus suggesting perceptual alterations at a global level. Here, we focused on audio-visual processing in synesthesia using a semantic classification task in combination with visually or auditory-visually presented animated and in animated objects in an audio-visual congruent and incongruent manner. Fourteen subjects with auditory-visual and/or grapheme-color synesthesia and 14 control subjects participated in the experiment. During presentation of the stimuli, event-related potentials were recorded from 32 electrodes. The analysis of reaction times and error rates revealed no group differences with best performance for audio-visually congruent stimulation indicating the well-known multimodal facilitation effect. We found enhanced amplitude of the N1 component over occipital electrode sites for synesthetes compared to controls. The differences occurred irrespective of the experimental condition and therefore suggest a global influence on early sensory processing in synesthetes.

Effect of breadmaking process on In Vitro gut microbiota parameters in irritable bowel syndrome

A variety of foods have been implicated in symptoms of patients with Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) but wheat products are most frequently cited by patients as a trigger. Our aim was to investigate the effects of breads, which were fermented for different lengths of time, on the colonic microbiota using in vitro batch culture experiments. A set of in vitro anaerobic culture systems were run over a period of 24 h using faeces from 3 different IBS donors (Rome Criteria–mainly constipated) and 3 healthy donors. Changes in gut microbiota during a time course were identified by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH), whilst the small -molecular weight metabolomic profile was determined by NMR analysis. Gas production was separately investigated in non pH-controlled, 36 h batch culture experiments. Numbers of bifidobacteria were higher in healthy subjects compared to IBS donors. In addition, the healthy donors showed a significant increase in bifidobacteria (P<0.005) after 8 h of fermentation of a bread produced using a sourdough process (type C) compared to breads produced with commercial yeasted dough (type B) and no time fermentation (Chorleywood Breadmaking process) (type A). A significant decrease of δ-Proteobacteria and most Gemmatimonadetes species was observed after 24 h fermentation of type C bread in both IBS and healthy donors. In general, IBS donors showed higher rates of gas production compared to healthy donors. Rates of gas production for type A and conventional long fermentation (type B) breads were almost identical in IBS and healthy donors. Sourdough bread produced significantly lower cumulative gas after 15 h fermentation as compared to type A and B breads in IBS donors but not in the healthy controls. In conclusion, breads fermented by the traditional long fermentation and sourdough are less likely to lead to IBS symptoms compared to bread made using the Chorleywood Breadmaking Process.

The carbon dioxide production rate assumption biases gastric emptying parameters in healthy adults

RATIONALE: An altered gastric emptying (GE) rate has been implicated in the aetiology of obesity. The (13)C-octanoic acid breath test (OBT) is frequently used to measure GE, and the cumulative percentage of (13)C recovered (cPDR) is a common outcome measure. However, true cPDR in breath is dependent on accurate measurement of carbon dioxide production rate (VCO(2)). The current study aimed to quantify differences in the (13)C OBT results obtained using directly measured VCO(2) (VCO(2DM)) compared with (i) predicted from resting VCO(2) (VCO(2PR)) and (ii) predicted from body surface area VCO(2) (VCO(2BSA)). METHODS: The GE rate of a high-fat test meal was assessed in 27 lean subjects using the OBT. Breath samples were gathered during the fasted state and at regular intervals throughout the 6-h postprandial period for determination of (13)C-isotopic enrichment by continuous-flow isotope-ratio mass spectrometry. The VCO(2) was measured directly from exhaled air samples and the PDR calculated by three methods. The bias and the limits of agreement were calculated using Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Compared with the VCO(2DM), the cPDR was underestimated by VCO(2PR) (4.8%; p = 0.0001) and VCO(2BSA) (2.7%; p = 0.02). The GE T(half) was underestimated by VCO(2PR) (13 min; p = 0.0001) and VCO(2BSA) (10 min; p = 0.01), compared with VCO(2DM). CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the importance of directly measuring VCO(2)production rates throughout the (13)C OBT and could partly explain the conflicting evidence regarding the effect of obesity on GE rates.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 1: Structure parameters

Scintillometry, a form of ground-based remote sensing, provides the capability to estimate surface heat fluxes over scales of a few hundred metres to kilometres. Measurements are spatial averages, making this technique particularly valuable over areas with moderate heterogeneity such as mixed agricultural or urban environments. In this study, we present the structure parameters of temperature and humidity, which can be related to the sensible and latent heat fluxes through similarity theory, for a suburban area in the UK. The fluxes are provided in the second paper of this two-part series. A millimetre-wave scintillometer was combined with an infrared scintillometer along a 5.5 km path over northern Swindon. The pairing of these two wavelengths offers sensitivity to both temperature and humidity fluctuations, and the correlation between wavelengths is also used to retrieve the path-averaged temperature–humidity correlation. Comparison is made with structure parameters calculated from an eddy covariance station located close to the centre of the scintillometer path. The performance of the measurement techniques under different conditions is discussed. Similar behaviour is seen between the two data sets at sub-daily timescales. For the two summer-to-winter periods presented here, similar evolution is displayed across the seasons. A higher vegetation fraction within the scintillometer source area is consistent with the lower Bowen ratio observed (midday Bowen ratio < 1) compared with more built-up areas around the eddy covariance station. The energy partitioning is further explored in the companion paper.

Situation assessment through multi-modal sensing of dynamic environments to support cognitive robot control

Awareness of emerging situations in a dynamic operational environment of a robotic assistive device is an essential capability of such a cognitive system, based on its effective and efficient assessment of the prevailing situation. This allows the system to interact with the environment in a sensible (semi)autonomous / pro-active manner without the need for frequent interventions from a supervisor. In this paper, we report a novel generic Situation Assessment Architecture for robotic systems directly assisting humans as developed in the CORBYS project. This paper presents the overall architecture for situation assessment and its application in proof-of-concept Demonstrators as developed and validated within the CORBYS project. These include a robotic human follower and a mobile gait rehabilitation robotic system. We present an overview of the structure and functionality of the Situation Assessment Architecture for robotic systems with results and observations as collected from initial validation on the two CORBYS Demonstrators.

Influence of galacto-oligosaccharide mixture (B-GOS) on gut microbiota, immune parameters and metabonomics in elderly persons

It is recognised that ageing induces various changes to the human colonic microbiota. Most relevant is a reduction in bifidobacteria, which is a health-positive genus. Prebiotics, such as galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS), are dietary ingredients that selectively fortify beneficial gut microbial groups. Therefore, they have the potential to reverse the age-related decline in bifidobacteria and modulate associated health parameters. We assessed the effect of GOS mixture (Bimuno (B-GOS)) on gut microbiota, markers of immune function and metabolites in forty elderly (age 65-80 years) volunteers in a randomised, double-blind, placebo (maltodextrin)-controlled, cross-over study. The intervention periods consisted of 10 weeks with daily doses of 5·5 g/d with a 4-week washout period in between. Blood and faecal samples were collected for the analyses of faecal bacterial populations and immune and metabolic biomarkers. B-GOS consumption led to significant increases in bacteroides and bifidobacteria, the latter correlating with increased lactic acid in faecal waters. Higher IL-10, IL-8, natural killer cell activity and C-reactive protein and lower IL-1β were also observed. Administration of B-GOS to elderly volunteers may be useful in positively affecting the microbiota and some markers of immune function associated with ageing.

Variation in morphological and physiological parameters in herbaceous perennial legumes in response to phosphorus supply

Change in morphological and physiological parameters in response to phosphorus (P) supply was studied in 11 perennial herbaceous legume species, six Australian native (Lotus australis, Cullen australasicum, Kennedia prorepens, K. prostrata, Glycine canescens, C. tenax) and five exotic species (Medicago sativa, Lotononis bainesii, Bituminaria bituminosa var albomarginata, Lotus corniculatus, Macroptilium bracteatum). We aimed to identify mechanisms for P acquisition from soil. Plants were grown in sterilised washed river sand; eight levels of P as KH2PO4 ranging from 0 to 384 μg P g−1 soil were applied. Plant growth under low-P conditions strongly correlated with physiological P-use efficiency and/or P-uptake efficiency. Taking all species together, at 6 μg P g−1 soil there was a good correlation between P uptake and both root surface area and total root length. All species had higher amounts of carboxylates in the rhizosphere under a low level of P application. Six of the 11 species increased the fraction of rhizosphere citrate in response to low P, which was accompanied by a reduction in malonate, except L. corniculatus. In addition, species showed different plasticity in response to P-application levels and different strategies in response to P deficiency. Our results show that many of the 11 species have prospects for low-input agroecosystems based on their high P-uptake and P-use efficiency.

Mathematical relationships between scoring parameters in capped tendering

Mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. This paper introduces the various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe and inter-relate not only the main Scoring Parameters but the main Forecasting Parameters in any capped tender (those whose price is upper-limited). Forecasting Parameters, as variables that can be known in advance before the deadline of a tender is reached, together with Scoring Parameters constitute the basis of a future Bid Tender Forecasting Model.