Mismatch Negativity (MMN) reveals inefficient auditory ventral stream function in chronic auditory comprehension impairments

Background: Auditory discrimination is significantly impaired in Wernicke’s aphasia (WA) and thought to be causatively related to the language comprehension impairment which characterises the condition. This study used mismatch negativity (MMN) to investigate the neural responses corresponding to successful and impaired auditory discrimination in WA. Methods: Behavioural auditory discrimination thresholds of CVC syllables and pure tones were measured in WA (n=7) and control (n=7) participants. Threshold results were used to develop multiple-deviant mismatch negativity (MMN) oddball paradigms containing deviants which were either perceptibly or non-perceptibly different from the standard stimuli. MMN analysis investigated differences associated with group, condition and perceptibility as well as the relationship between MMN responses and comprehension (within which behavioural auditory discrimination profiles were examined). Results: MMN waveforms were observable to both perceptible and non-perceptible auditory changes. Perceptibility was only distinguished by MMN amplitude in the PT condition. The WA group could be distinguished from controls by an increase in MMN response latency to CVC stimuli change. Correlation analyses displayed relationship between behavioural CVC discrimination and MMN amplitude in the control group, where greater amplitude corresponded to better discrimination. The WA group displayed the inverse effect; both discrimination accuracy and auditory comprehension scores were reduced with increased MMN amplitude. In the WA group, a further correlation was observed between the lateralisation of MMN response and CVC discrimination accuracy; the greater the bilateral involvement the better the discrimination accuracy. Conclusions: The results from this study provide further evidence for the nature of auditory comprehension impairment in WA and indicate that the auditory discrimination deficit is grounded in a reduced ability to engage in efficient hierarchical processing and the construction of invariant auditory objects. Correlation results suggest that people with chronic WA may rely on an inefficient, noisy right hemisphere auditory stream when attempting to process speech stimuli.

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss

Since 2007 a large decline in Arctic sea ice has been observed. The large-scale atmospheric circulation response to this decline is investigated in ERA-Interim reanalyses and HadGEM3 climate model experiments. In winter, post-2007 observed circulation anomalies over the Arctic, North Atlantic and Eurasia are small compared to interannual variability. In summer, the post-2007 observed circulation is dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly over Greenland which has a large signal-to-noise ratio. Climate model experiments driven by observed SST and sea ice anomalies are able to capture the summertime pattern of observed circulation anomalies, although the magnitude is a third of that observed. The experiments suggest high SSTs and reduced sea ice in the Labrador Sea lead to positive temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere which weaken the westerlies over North America through thermal wind balance. The experiments also capture cyclonic anomalies over Northwest Europe, which are consistent with downstream Rossby wave propagation

Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to deal with loss and damage associated with climate change impacts, including extreme events, in developing countries. It is not yet known whether events will need to be attributed to anthropogenic climate change to be considered under the WIM. Attribution is possible for some extreme events- a climate model assessment can estimate how greenhouse gas emissions have affected the likelihood of their occurrence. Dialogue between scientists and stakeholders is required to establish whether, and how, this science could play a role in the WIM.

Anna In-Between: Caribbean and not Caribbean: attachment, loss and strange Longing: a conversation with Elizabeth Nunez

Presents an interview with Elizabeth Nunez, author and professor. Nunez discusses the issues on migration, family, and intimacy which are the topics of her novel "Anna In-Between." She explains the demands of the publishing industry that cast a shadow in the world of the novel and the real world of Caribbean writers. This interview was translated by Maria Lusia Ruiz.

Loss of Dictyostelium HSPC300 causes a scar-like phenotype and loss of SCAR protein.

HSPC300 is essential for most SCAR complex functions. The phenotype of HSPC300 knockouts is most similar to mutants in scar, not the other members of the SCAR complex, suggesting that HSPC300 acts most directly on SCAR itself.

The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.

Insect pollination reduces yield loss following heat stress in faba bean (Vicia faba L.)

Global food security, particularly crop fertilization and yield production, is threatened by heat waves that are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Effects of heat stress on the fertilization of insect-pollinated plants are not well understood, but experiments conducted primarily in self-pollinated crops, such as wheat, show that transfer of fertile pollen may recover yield following stress. We hypothesized that in the partially pollinator-dependent crop, faba bean (Vicia faba L.), insect pollination would elicit similar yield recovery following heat stress. We exposed potted faba bean plants to heat stress for 5 days during floral development and anthesis. Temperature treatments were representative of heat waves projected in the UK for the period 2021-2050 and onwards. Following temperature treatments, plants were distributed in flight cages and either pollinated by domesticated Bombus terrestris colonies or received no insect pollination. Yield loss due to heat stress at 30°C was greater in plants excluded from pollinators (15%) compared to those with bumblebee pollination (2.5%). Thus, the pollinator dependency of faba bean yield was 16% at control temperatures (18 to 26°C) and extreme stress (34°C), but was 53% following intermediate heat stress at 30°C. These findings provide the first evidence that the pollinator dependency of crops can be modified by heat stress, and suggest that insect pollination may become more important in crop production as the probability of heat waves increases.

Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation

The atmospheric response to an idealized decline in Arctic sea ice is investigated in a novel fully coupled climate model experiment. In this experiment two ensembles of single-year model integrations are performed starting on 1 April, the approximate start of the ice melt season. By perturbing the initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT), declines in both sea ice concentration and SIT, which result in sea ice distributions that are similar to the recent sea ice minima of 2007 and 2012, are induced. In the ice loss regions there are strong (~3 K) local increases in sea surface temperature (SST); additionally, there are remote increases in SST in the central North Pacific and subpolar gyre in the North Atlantic. Over the central Arctic there are increases in surface air temperature (SAT) of ~8 K due to increases in ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes. There are increases in SAT over continental North America that are in good agreement with recent changes as seen by reanalysis data. It is estimated that up to two-thirds of the observed increase in SAT in this region could be related to Arctic sea ice loss. In early summer there is a significant but weak atmospheric circulation response that projects onto the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In early summer and early autumn there is an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet over the North Atlantic as a result of a reduction in the meridional temperature gradients. In winter there is no projection onto a particular phase of the NAO.

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

Declining resilience of ecosystem functions under biodiversity loss

The composition of species communities is changing rapidly through drivers such as habitat loss and climate change, with potentially serious consequences for the resilience of ecosystem functions on which humans depend. To assess such changes in resilience, we analyse trends in the frequency of species in Great Britain that provide key ecosystem functions-specifically decomposition, carbon sequestration, pollination, pest control and cultural values. For 4,424 species over four decades, there have been significant net declines among animal species that provide pollination, pest control and cultural values. Groups providing decomposition and carbon sequestration remain relatively stable, as fewer species are in decline and these are offset by large numbers of new arrivals into Great Britain. While there is general concern about degradation of a wide range of ecosystem functions, our results suggest actions should focus on particular functions for which there is evidence of substantial erosion of their resilience.

Characterisation of synoptic conditions and cyclones associated with top ranking potential wind loss events over Iberia

Intense extra-tropical cyclones are often associated with strong winds, heavy precipitation and socio-economic impacts. Over southwestern Europe, such storms occur less often, but still cause high economic losses. We characterise the largescale atmospheric conditions and cyclone tracks during the top-100 potential losses over Iberia associated with wind events. Based on 65 years of reanalysis data,events are classified into four groups: (i) cyclone tracks crossing over Iberia on the event day (“Iberia”), (ii) cyclones crossing further north, typically southwest of the British Isles (“North”), (iii) cyclones crossing southwest to northeast near the northwest tip of Iberia (“West”), and (iv) so called “Hybrids”, characterised by a strong pressure gradient over Iberia due to the juxtaposition of low and high pressure centres. Generally, “Iberia” events are the most frequent (31% to 45% for top-100 vs.top-20), while “West” events are rare (10% to 12%). 70% of the events were primarily associated with a cyclone. Multi-decadal variability in the number of events is identified. While the peak in recent years is quite prominent, other comparably stormy periods occurred in the 1960s and 1980s. This study documents that damaging wind storms over Iberia are not rare events, and their frequency of occurrence undergoes strong multi-decadal variability.