Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Linkage disequilibrium assessment via log-linear modeling of SNP haplotype frequencies

Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

A mechanistic study of the low pressure pyrolysis of linear siloxanes

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of 1,1,3,3-tetramethyldisiloxane (L1), 1,1,3,3,5,5-hexamethyltrisiloxane (L2) and 3H,5H-octamethyltetrasiloxane (L3) at ca. 1000 K in a flow reactor at low pressures. The hydrocarbons CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 were observed as prominent pyrolysis products in all three systems, and amongst the weaker features are bands arising from the methylsilanes Me2SiH2 (for L1 and L2) and Me3SiH (for L3). The fundamental of SiO was also observed very weakly. By use of quantum chemical calculations combined with earlier kinetic models, mechanisms have been proposed involving the intermediacy of silanones Me2Si = O and MeSiH = O. Model calculations on the decomposition pathways of H3SiOSiH3 and H3SiOSiH2OSiH3 show that silanone elimination is favoured over silylene extrusion.

Measurement of acrylamide and its precursors in potato, wheat, and rye model systems

The relationship between acrylamide and its precursors, namely, free asparagine and reducing sugars, was studied in cakes made from potato flake, wholemeal wheat, and wholemeal rye, cooked at 180 degreesC, from 5 to 60 min. Between 5 and 20 min, major losses of asparagine, water, and total reducing sugars were accompanied by large increases in acrylamide, which maximized in all three products between 25 and 30 min, followed by a slow linear reduction. Acrylamide formation did not occur to a large degree until the moisture contents of the cakes fell below 5%. Linear relationships were observed for acrylamide formation with the residual levels of asparagine and reducing sugars for all three food materials.

State-space model identification of a wireless THz network

We model the large scale fading of wireless THz communications links deployed in a metropolitan area taking into account reception through direct line of sight, ground or wall reflection and diffraction. The movement of the receiver in the three dimensions is modelled by an autonomous dynamic linear system in state-space whereas the geometric relations involved in the attenuation and multi-path propagation of the electric field are described by a static non-linear mapping. A subspace algorithm in conjunction with polynomial regression is used to identify a Wiener model from time-domain measurements of the field intensity.

Robust identification for linear-in-the-parameters models

In this paper new robust nonlinear model construction algorithms for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models are introduced to enhance model robustness, including three algorithms using combined A- or D-optimality or PRESS statistic (Predicted REsidual Sum of Squares) with regularised orthogonal least squares algorithm respectively. A common characteristic of these algorithms is that the inherent computation efficiency associated with the orthogonalisation scheme in orthogonal least squares or regularised orthogonal least squares has been extended such that the new algorithms are computationally efficient. A numerical example is included to demonstrate effectiveness of the algorithms. Copyright (C) 2003 IFAC.

Robust background model for pixel based people counting using a single uncalibrated camera

Several pixel-based people counting methods have been developed over the years. Among these the product of scale-weighted pixel sums and a linear correlation coefficient is a popular people counting approach. However most approaches have paid little attention to resolving the true background and instead take all foreground pixels into account. With large crowds moving at varying speeds and with the presence of other moving objects such as vehicles this approach is prone to problems. In this paper we present a method which concentrates on determining the true-foreground, i.e. human-image pixels only. To do this we have proposed, implemented and comparatively evaluated a human detection layer to make people counting more robust in the presence of noise and lack of empty background sequences. We show the effect of combining human detection with a pixel-map based algorithm to i) count only human-classified pixels and ii) prevent foreground pixels belonging to humans from being absorbed into the background model. We evaluate the performance of this approach on the PETS 2009 dataset using various configurations of the proposed methods. Our evaluation demonstrates that the basic benchmark method we implemented can achieve an accuracy of up to 87% on sequence ¿S1.L1 13-57 View 001¿ and our proposed approach can achieve up to 82% on sequence ¿S1.L3 14-33 View 001¿ where the crowd stops and the benchmark accuracy falls to 64%.

MIMO Wiener model identification for large scale fading of wireless mobile communications links

The large scale fading of wireless mobile communications links is modelled assuming the mobile receiver motion is described by a dynamic linear system in state-space. The geometric relations involved in the attenuation and multi-path propagation of the electric field are described by a static non-linear mapping. A Wiener system subspace identification algorithm in conjunction with polynomial regression is used to identify a model from time-domain estimates of the field intensity assuming a multitude of emitters and an antenna array at the receiver end.

Design of a minimum variance multiple input-multiple output neuro self-tuning proportional-integral-derivative controller for non-linear dynamic systems

In this study a minimum variance neuro self-tuning proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is designed for complex multiple input-multiple output (MIMO) dynamic systems. An approximation model is constructed, which consists of two functional blocks. The first block uses a linear submodel to approximate dominant system dynamics around a selected number of operating points. The second block is used as an error agent, implemented by a neural network, to accommodate the inaccuracy possibly introduced by the linear submodel approximation, various complexities/uncertainties, and complicated coupling effects frequently exhibited in non-linear MIMO dynamic systems. With the proposed model structure, controller design of an MIMO plant with n inputs and n outputs could be, for example, decomposed into n independent single input-single output (SISO) subsystem designs. The effectiveness of the controller design procedure is initially verified through simulations of industrial examples.

Sparse model identification using orthogonal forward regression with basis pursuit and D-optimality

An efficient model identification algorithm for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models is introduced that simultaneously optimises the model approximation ability, sparsity and robustness. The derived model parameters in each forward regression step are initially estimated via the orthogonal least squares (OLS), followed by being tuned with a new gradient-descent learning algorithm based on the basis pursuit that minimises the l(1) norm of the parameter estimate vector. The model subset selection cost function includes a D-optimality design criterion that maximises the determinant of the design matrix of the subset to ensure model robustness and to enable the model selection procedure to automatically terminate at a sparse model. The proposed approach is based on the forward OLS algorithm using the modified Gram-Schmidt procedure. Both the parameter tuning procedure, based on basis pursuit, and the model selection criterion, based on the D-optimality that is effective in ensuring model robustness, are integrated with the forward regression. As a consequence the inherent computational efficiency associated with the conventional forward OLS approach is maintained in the proposed algorithm. Examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach.

A fast linear-in-the-parameters classifier construction algorithm using orthogonal forward selection to minimize leave-one-out misclassification rate

We propose a simple and computationally efficient construction algorithm for two class linear-in-the-parameters classifiers. In order to optimize model generalization, a forward orthogonal selection (OFS) procedure is used for minimizing the leave-one-out (LOO) misclassification rate directly. An analytic formula and a set of forward recursive updating formula of the LOO misclassification rate are developed and applied in the proposed algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is an excellent alternative approach to construct sparse two class classifiers in terms of performance and computational efficiency.

Robust nonlinear model identification methods using forward regression

In this correspondence new robust nonlinear model construction algorithms for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models are introduced to enhance model robustness via combined parameter regularization and new robust structural selective criteria. In parallel to parameter regularization, we use two classes of robust model selection criteria based on either experimental design criteria that optimizes model adequacy, or the predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) statistic that optimizes model generalization capability, respectively. Three robust identification algorithms are introduced, i.e., combined A- and D-optimality with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm, respectively; and combined PRESS statistic with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm. A common characteristic of these algorithms is that the inherent computation efficiency associated with the orthogonalization scheme in orthogonal least squares or regularized orthogonal least squares has been extended such that the new algorithms are computationally efficient. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate effectiveness of the algorithms.

Hammerstein model identification algorithm using Bezier-Bernstein approximation

A new identification algorithm is introduced for the Hammerstein model consisting of a nonlinear static function followed by a linear dynamical model. The nonlinear static function is characterised by using the Bezier-Bernstein approximation. The identification method is based on a hybrid scheme including the applications of the inverse of de Casteljau's algorithm, the least squares algorithm and the Gauss-Newton algorithm subject to constraints. The related work and the extension of the proposed algorithm to multi-input multi-output systems are discussed. Numerical examples including systems with some hard nonlinearities are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach through comparisons with other approaches.

Alignment of a model amyloid peptide fragment in bulk and at a solid surface

The alignment of model amyloid peptide YYKLVFFC is investigated in bulk and at a solid surface using a range of spectroscopic methods employing polarized radiation. The peptide is based on a core sequence of the amyloid beta (A beta) peptide, KLVFF. The attached tyrosine and cysteine units are exploited to yield information on alignment and possible formation of disulfide or dityrosine links. Polarized Raman spectroscopy on aligned stalks provides information on tyrosine orientation, which complements data from linear dichroism (LD) on aqueous solutions subjected to shear in a Couette cell. LD provides a detailed picture of alignment of peptide strands and aromatic residues and was also used to probe the kinetics of self-assembly. This suggests initial association of phenylalanine residues, followed by subsequent registry of strands and orientation of tyrosine residues. X-ray diffraction (XRD) data from aligned stalks is used to extract orientational order parameters from the 0.48 nm reflection in the cross-beta pattern, from which an orientational distribution function is obtained. X-ray diffraction on solutions subject to capillary flow confirmed orientation in situ at the level of the cross-beta pattern. The information on fibril and tyrosine orientation from polarized Raman spectroscopy is compared with results from NEXAFS experiments on samples prepared as films on silicon. This indicates fibrils are aligned parallel to the surface, with phenyl ring normals perpendicular to the surface. Possible disulfide bridging leading to peptide dimer formation was excluded by Raman spectroscopy, whereas dityrosine formation was probed by fluorescence experiments and was found not to occur except under alkaline conditions. Congo red binding was found not to influence the cross-beta XRD pattern.