Upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across decadal to sub-daily timescales: a case study of Plynlimon, Wales

Streamwater nitrate dynamics in the River Hafren, Plynlimon, mid-Wales were investigated over decadal to sub-daily timescales using a range of statistical techniques. Long-term data were derived from weekly grab samples (1984–2010) and high-frequency data from 7-hourly samples (2007–2009) both measured at two sites: a headwater stream draining moorland and a downstream site below plantation forest. This study is one of the first to analyse upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across such a wide range of timescales and report on the principal mechanisms identified. The data analysis provided no clear evidence that the long-term decline in streamwater nitrate concentrations was related to a decline in atmospheric deposition alone, because nitrogen deposition first increased and then decreased during the study period. Increased streamwater temperature and denitrification may also have contributed to the decline in stream nitrate concentrations, the former through increased N uptake rates and the latter resultant from increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Strong seasonal cycles, with concentration minimums in the summer, were driven by seasonal flow minimums and seasonal biological activity enhancing nitrate uptake. Complex diurnal dynamics were observed, with seasonal changes in phase and amplitude of the cycling, and the diurnal dynamics were variable along the river. At the moorland site, a regular daily cycle, with minimum concentrations in the early afternoon, corresponding with peak air temperatures, indicated the importance of instream biological processing. At the downstream site, the diurnal dynamics were a composite signal, resultant from advection, dispersion and nitrate processing in the soils of the lower catchment. The diurnal streamwater nitrate dynamics were also affected by drought conditions. Enhanced diurnal cycling in Spring 2007 was attributed to increased nitrate availability in the post-drought period as well as low flow rates and high temperatures over this period. The combination of high-frequency short-term measurements and long-term monitoring provides a powerful tool for increasing understanding of the controls of element fluxes and concentrations in surface waters.

Bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations as non-linearity tests and tools for exchange rate forecasting

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The formulations are essentially modified autoregressive or vector autoregressive models respectively, which can be estimated using ordinary least squares. The techniques are applied to a set of high-frequency exchange rate returns, and their out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared to that of other time series models

Tests of non-linearity using LIFFE futures transactions price data

This paper presents and implements a number of tests for non-linear dependence and a test for chaos using transactions prices on three LIFFE futures contracts: the Short Sterling interest rate contract, the Long Gilt government bond contract, and the FTSE 100 stock index futures contract. While previous studies of high frequency futures market data use only those transactions which involve a price change, we use all of the transaction prices on these contracts whether they involve a price change or not. Our results indicate irrefutable evidence of non-linearity in two of the three contracts, although we find no evidence of a chaotic process in any of the series. We are also able to provide some indications of the effect of the duration of the trading day on the degree of non-linearity of the underlying contract. The trading day for the Long Gilt contract was extended in August 1994, and prior to this date there is no evidence of any structure in the return series. However, after the extension of the trading day we do find evidence of a non-linear return structure.

The lifecycle of the North Atlantic storm track

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability, with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle and north. Here we examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. We investigate the changes in the storm track characteristics for the three jet locations, and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. Our results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatio-temporal lifecycle.

Dynamic response times of electrorheological fluids in steady shear

Transient responses of electrorheological fluids to square-wave electric fields in steady shear are investigated by computational simulation method. The structure responses of the fluids to the field with high frequency are found to be very similar to that to the field with very low frequency or the sudden applied direct current field. The stress rise processes are also similar in both cases and can be described by an exponential expression. The characteristic time tau of the stress response is found to decrease with the increase of the shear rate (gamma) over dot and the area fraction of the particles phi(2). The relation between them can be roughly expressed as tau proportional to(gamma) over dot(-3/4)phi(2)(-3/2). The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements. The aggregation kinetics of the particles in steady shear is also discussed according to these results.

Influence of inherent structure shear stress of supercooled liquids on their shear moduli

Configurations of supercooled liquids residing in their local potential minimum (i.e. in their inherent structure, IS) were found to support a non-zero shear stress. This IS stress was attributed to the constraint to the energy minimization imposed by boundary conditions, which keep size and shape of the simulation cell fixed. In this paper we further investigate the influence of these boundary conditions on the IS stress. We investigate its importance for the computation of the low frequency shear modulus of a glass obtaining a consistent picture for the low- and high frequency shear moduli over the full temperature range. Hence, we find that the IS stress corresponds to a non-thermal contribution to the fluctuation term in the Born-Green expression. This leads to an unphysical divergence of the moduli in the low temperature limit if no proper correction for this term is applied. Furthermore, we clarify the IS stress dependence on the system size and put its origin on a more formal basis.

Big data architecture for pervasive healthcare: a literature review

Pervasive healthcare aims to deliver deinstitutionalised healthcare services to patients anytime and anywhere. Pervasive healthcare involves remote data collection through mobile devices and sensor network which the data is usually in large volume, varied formats and high frequency. The nature of big data such as volume, variety, velocity and veracity, together with its analytical capabilities com-plements the delivery of pervasive healthcare. However, there is limited research in intertwining these two domains. Most research focus mainly on the technical context of big data application in the healthcare sector. Little attention has been paid to a strategic role of big data which impacts the quality of healthcare services provision at the organisational level. Therefore, this paper delivers a conceptual view of big data architecture for pervasive healthcare via an intensive literature review to address the aforementioned research problems. This paper provides three major contributions: 1) identifies the research themes of big data and pervasive healthcare, 2) establishes the relationship between research themes, which later composes the big data architecture for pervasive healthcare, and 3) sheds a light on future research, such as semiosis and sense-making, and enables practitioners to implement big data in the pervasive healthcare through the proposed architecture.

Quantifying particle size and turbulent scale dependence of dust uplift in the Sahara using aircraft measurements

The first size-resolved airborne measurements of dust fluxes and the first dust flux measurements from the central Sahara are presented and compared with a parameterization by Kok (2011a). High-frequency measurements of dust size distribution were obtained from 0.16 to 300 µm diameter, and eddy covariance fluxes were derived. This is more than an order of magnitude larger size range than previous flux estimates. Links to surface emission are provided by analysis of particle drift velocities. Number flux is described by a −2 power law between 1 and 144 µm diameter, significantly larger than the 12 µm upper limit suggested by Kok (2011a). For small particles, the deviation from a power law varies with terrain type and the large size cutoff is correlated with atmospheric vertical turbulent kinetic energy, suggesting control by vertical transport rather than emission processes. The measured mass flux mode is in the range 30–100 µm. The turbulent scales important for dust flux are from 0.1 km to 1–10 km. The upper scale increases during the morning as boundary layer depth and eddy size increase. All locations where large dust fluxes were measured had large topographical variations. These features are often linked with highly erodible surface features, such as wadis or dunes. We also hypothesize that upslope flow and flow separation over such features enhance the dust flux by transporting large particles out of the saltation layer. The tendency to locate surface flux measurements in open, flat terrain means these favored dust sources have been neglected in previous studies.

Do jumps matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from energy markets

This paper characterizes the dynamics of jumps and analyzes their importance for volatility forecasting. Using high-frequency data on four prominent energy markets, we perform a model-free decomposition of realized variance into its continuous and discontinuous components. We find strong evidence of jumps in energy markets between 2007 and 2012. We then investigate the importance of jumps for volatility forecasting. To this end, we estimate and analyze the predictive ability of several Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) models that explicitly capture the dynamics of jumps. Conducting extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, we establish that explicitly modeling jumps does not significantly improve forecast accuracy. Our results are broadly consistent across our four energy markets, forecasting horizons, and loss functions

Diel surface temperature range scales with lake size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.

Genetic and phenotypic characterization of complex hereditary spastic paraplegia

The hereditary spastic paraplegias are a heterogeneous group of degenerative disorders that are clinically classified as either pure with predominant lower limb spasticity, or complex where spastic paraplegia is complicated with additional neurological features, and are inherited in autosomal dominant, autosomal recessive or X-linked patterns. Genetic defects have been identified in over 40 different genes, with more than 70 loci in total. Complex recessive spastic paraplegias have in the past been frequently associated with mutations in SPG11 (spatacsin), ZFYVE26/SPG15, SPG7 (paraplegin) and a handful of other rare genes, but many cases remain genetically undefined. The overlap with other neurodegenerative disorders has been implied in a small number of reports, but not in larger disease series. This deficiency has been largely due to the lack of suitable high throughput techniques to investigate the genetic basis of disease, but the recent availability of next generation sequencing can facilitate the identification of disease- causing mutations even in extremely heterogeneous disorders. We investigated a series of 97 index cases with complex spastic paraplegia referred to a tertiary referral neurology centre in London for diagnosis or management. The mean age of onset was 16 years (range 3 to 39). The SPG11 gene was first analysed, revealing homozygous or compound heterozygous mutations in 30/97 (30.9%) of probands, the largest SPG11 series reported to date, and by far the most common cause of complex spastic paraplegia in the UK, with severe and progressive clinical features and other neurological manifestations, linked with magnetic resonance imaging defects. Given the high frequency of SPG11 mutations, we studied the autophagic response to starvation in eight affected SPG11 cases and control fibroblast cell lines, but in our restricted study we did not observe correlations between disease status and autophagic or lysosomal markers. In the remaining cases, next generation sequencing was carried out revealing variants in a number of other known complex spastic paraplegia genes, including five in SPG7 (5/97), four in FA2H (also known as SPG35) (4/97) and two in ZFYVE26/SPG15. Variants were identified in genes usually associated with pure spastic paraplegia and also in the Parkinson’s disease-associated gene ATP13A2, neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis gene TPP1 and the hereditary motor and sensory neuropathy DNMT1 gene, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of spastic paraplegia. No plausible genetic cause was identified in 51% of probands, likely indicating the existence of as yet unidentified genes.