The circulation response to idealized changes in stratospheric water vapor

Observations show that stratospheric water vapor (SWV) concentrations increased by ~30% between 1980 and 2000. SWV has also been projected to increase by up to a factor of two over the 21st century. Trends in SWV impact on stratospheric temperatures, which may lead to changes in the stratospheric circulation. Perturbations in temperature and wind in the stratosphere have been shown to influence the extratropical tropospheric circulation. This study investigates the response to a uniform doubling in SWV from 3 to 6 ppmv in a comprehensive stratosphere-resolving atmospheric-GCM. The increase in SWV causes stratospheric cooling with a maximum amplitude of 5-6 K in the polar lower stratosphere and 2-3 K in the tropical lower stratosphere. The zonal wind on the upper flanks of the subtropical jets is more westerly by up to ~5 m s−1. Changes in resolved wave drag in the stratosphere result in an increase in the strength of tropical upwelling associated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation of ~10% throughout the year. In the troposphere, the increase in SWV causes significant meridional dipole changes in the midlatitude zonal-mean zonal wind of up to 2.8 m s−1 at 850 hPa, which are largest in boreal winter in both hemispheres. This suggests a more poleward storm track under uniformly increased stratospheric water vapor. The circulation changes in both the stratosphere and troposphere are almost entirely due to the increase in SWV at pressures greater than 50 hPa. The results show that long-term trends in SWV may impact on stratospheric temperatures and wind, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and extratropical surface climate.

Characterization of Grb2-binding proteins in human platelets activated by Fc gamma RIIA cross-linking.

Glutathione-S-transferase (GST)-Grb2 fusion proteins have been used to identify the potential role of Grb2-binding proteins in platelet activation by the platelet low-affinity IgG receptor, Fc gamma RIIA. Two tyrosine phosphoproteins of 38 and 63 kD bind to the SH2 domain of Grb2 following Fc gamma RIIA stimulation of platelets. Both are located in the particulate fraction following platelet activation and are also able to bind to a GST-construct containing the SH2 and SH3 domains of phospholipase C gamma 1. p38 also forms a complex with the tyrosine kinase csk in stimulated cells and is a substrate for the kinase. The SH3 domains of Grb2 form a stable complex with SOS1 and two proteins of 75 kD and 120 kD, which undergo tyrosine phosphorylation in Fc gamma RIIA stimulated cells. The 75-kD protein is recognized by antibodies to SLP-76, which has recently been isolated from T cells and sequenced. Tyrosine phosphorylation of p38 and p63 is also observed in platelets stimulated by the tyrosine kinase-linked receptor agonist collagen and by the G protein-coupled receptor agonist thrombin, although phosphorylation of SLP-76 is only observed in collagen-stimulated platelets. p38 and p63 may provide a docking site for Grb2, thereby linking Grb2 SH3-binding proteins SOS1, SLP-76, and p120 to downstream signalling events.

Revealing and quantifying the impaired phonological analysis underpinning impaired comprehension in Wernicke’s aphasia

Wernicke’s aphasia is a condition which results in severely disrupted language comprehension following a lesion to the left temporo-parietal region. A phonological analysis deficit has traditionally been held to be at the root of the comprehension impairment in WA, a view consistent with current functional neuroimaging which finds areas in the superior temporal cortex responsive to phonological stimuli. However behavioural evidence to support the link between a phonological analysis deficit and auditory comprehension has not been yet shown. This study extends seminal work by Blumstein et al. (1977) to investigate the relationship between acoustic-phonological perception, measured through phonological discrimination, and auditory comprehension in a case series of Wernicke’s aphasia participants. A novel adaptive phonological discrimination task was used to obtain reliable thresholds of the phonological perceptual distance required between nonwords before they could be discriminated. Wernicke’s aphasia participants showed significantly elevated thresholds compared to age and hearing matched control participants. Acoustic-phonological thresholds correlated strongly with auditory comprehension abilities in Wernicke’s aphasia. In contrast, nonverbal semantic skills showed no relationship with auditory comprehension. The results are evaluated in the context of recent neurobiological models of language and suggest that impaired acoustic-phonological perception underlies the comprehension impairment in Wernicke’s aphasia and favour models of language which propose a leftward asymmetry in phonological analysis.

Steering without Circe : attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

Relating system dynamics to the broad systems movement, the key notion is that reinforcing loops deserve no less attention than balancing loops. Three specific propositions follow. First, since reinforcing loops arise in surprising places, investigations of complex systems must consider their possible existence and potential impact. Second, because the strength of reinforcing loops can be misinferred - we include an example from the field of servomechanisms - computer simulation can be essential. Be it project management, corporate growth or inventory oscillation, simulation helps to assess consequences of reinforcing loops and options for interventions. Third, in social systems the consequences of reinforcing loops are not inevitable. Examples concerning globalization illustrate how difficult it might be to challenge such assumptions. However, system dynamics and ideas from contemporary social theory help to show that even the most complex social systems are, in principle, subject to human influence. In conclusion, by employing these ideas, by attending to reinforcing as well as balancing loops, system dynamics work can improve the understanding of social systems and illuminate our choices when attempting to steer them.

Colonization of 8-week-old conventionally reared goats by Escherichia coli O157:H7 after oral inoculation

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157 : H7 infections of man have been associated with consumption of unpasteurized goat's milk and direct contact with kid goats on petting farms, yet little is known about colonization of goats with this organism. To assess the contribution of flagella and intimin of E coli O157 : H7 in colonization of the goat, 8-week-old conventionally reared goats were inoculated orally in separate experiments with 1 X 10(10) c.f.u. of a non-verotoxigenic strain of E coli O157: H7 (strain NCTC 12900 Nal(r)), an aflagellate derivative (DMB1) and an intimin-deficient derivative (DMB2). At 24 In after inoculation, the three E coli O157 : H7 strains were shed at approximately 5 X 1 04 c.f.u. (g faeces)(-1) from all animals. Significantly fewer intimin-deficient bacteria were shed only on days 2 (P = 0(.)003) and 4 (P = 0(.)014), whereas from day 7 to 29 there were no differences. Tissues from three animals inoculated with wild-type E coli O157 : H7 strain NCTC 12900 Nalr were sampled at 24,48 and 96 In after inoculation and the organism was cultured from the large intestine of all three animals and from the duodenum and ileum of the animal examined at 96 h. Tissues were examined histologically but attaching-effacing (AE) lesions were not observed at any intestinal site of the animals examined at 24 or 48 In. However, the animal examined at 96 h, which had uniquely shed approximately 1 x 10(7) E coli O157: H7 (g faeces)(-1) for the preceding 3 days, showed a heavy, diffuse infection with cryptosporidia. and abundant, multifocal AE lesions in the distal colon, rectum and at the recto-anal junction. These AE lesions were confirmed by immunohistochemistry to be associated with E coli O157: H7.

Fundamental deficits of auditory perception in Wernicke’s aphasia

Objective: This work investigates the nature of the comprehension impairment in Wernicke’s aphasia, by examining the relationship between deficits in auditory processing of fundamental, non-verbal acoustic stimuli and auditory comprehension. Wernicke’s aphasia, a condition resulting in severely disrupted auditory comprehension, primarily occurs following a cerebrovascular accident (CVA) to the left temporo-parietal cortex. Whilst damage to posterior superior temporal areas is associated with auditory linguistic comprehension impairments, functional imaging indicates that these areas may not be specific to speech processing but part of a network for generic auditory analysis. Methods: We examined analysis of basic acoustic stimuli in Wernicke’s aphasia participants (n = 10) using auditory stimuli reflective of theories of cortical auditory processing and of speech cues. Auditory spectral, temporal and spectro-temporal analysis was assessed using pure tone frequency discrimination, frequency modulation (FM) detection and the detection of dynamic modulation (DM) in “moving ripple” stimuli. All tasks used criterion-free, adaptive measures of threshold to ensure reliable results at the individual level. Results: Participants with Wernicke’s aphasia showed normal frequency discrimination but significant impairments in FM and DM detection, relative to age- and hearing-matched controls at the group level (n = 10). At the individual level, there was considerable variation in performance, and thresholds for both frequency and dynamic modulation detection correlated significantly with auditory comprehension abilities in the Wernicke’s aphasia participants. Conclusion: These results demonstrate the co-occurrence of a deficit in fundamental auditory processing of temporal and spectrotemporal nonverbal stimuli in Wernicke’s aphasia, which may have a causal contribution to the auditory language comprehension impairment Results are discussed in the context of traditional neuropsychology and current models of cortical auditory processing.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.

Impact of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice simulations from 1990 to 2007

The extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically in the past few decades with minima in sea ice extent in September 2007 and 2011 and climate models did not predict this decline. One of the processes poorly represented in sea ice models is the formation and evolution of melt ponds. Melt ponds form on Arctic sea ice during the melting season and their presence affects the heat and mass balances of the ice cover, mainly by decreasing the value of the surface albedo by up to 20%. We have developed a melt pond model suitable for forecasting the presence of melt ponds based on sea ice conditions. This model has been incorporated into the Los Alamos CICE sea ice model, the sea ice component of several IPCC climate models. Simulations for the period 1990 to 2007 are in good agreement with observed ice concentration. In comparison to simulations without ponds, the September ice volume is nearly 40% lower. Sensitivity studies within the range of uncertainty reveal that, of the parameters pertinent to the present melt pond parameterization and for our prescribed atmospheric and oceanic forcing, variations of optical properties and the amount of snowfall have the strongest impact on sea ice extent and volume. We conclude that melt ponds will play an increasingly important role in the melting of the Arctic ice cover and their incorporation in the sea ice component of Global Circulation Models is essential for accurate future sea ice forecasts.

Acetone enhances the direct analysis of procyanidin- and prodelphinidin-based condensed tannins in lotus species by the butanol-HCl-iron assay

The butanol-HCl spectrophotometric assay is widely used for quantifying extractable and insoluble condensed tannins (CT, syn. proanthocyanidins) in foods, feeds, and foliage of herbaceous and woody plants, but the method underestimates total CT content when applied directly to plant material. To improve CT quantitation, we tested various cosolvents with butanol-HCl and found that acetone increased anthocyanidin yields from two forage Lotus species having contrasting procyanidin and prodelphinidin compositions. A butanol-HCl-iron assay run with 50% (v/v) acetone gave linear responses with Lotus CT standards and increased estimates of total CT in Lotus herbage and leaves by up to 3.2-fold over the conventional method run without acetone. The use of thiolysis to determine the purity of CT standards further improved quantitation. Gel-state 13C and 1H–13C HSQC NMR spectra of insoluble residues collected after butanol-HCl assays revealed that acetone increased anthocyanidin yields by facilitating complete solubilization of CT from tissue.

A spatio-temporal structure-based approach to drought characterisation

Drought characterisation is an intrinsically spatio-temporal problem. A limitation of previous approaches to characterisation is that they discard much of the spatio-temporal information by reducing events to a lower-order subspace. To address this, an explicit 3-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) structure-based method is described in which drought events are defined by a spatially and temporarily coherent set of points displaying standardised precipitation below a given threshold. Geometric methods can then be used to measure similarity between individual drought structures. Groupings of these similarities provide an alternative to traditional methods for extracting recurrent space-time signals from geophysical data. The explicit consideration of structure encourages the construction of summary statistics which relate to the event geometry. Example measures considered are the event volume, centroid, and aspect ratio. The utility of a 3-dimensional approach is demonstrated by application to the analysis of European droughts (15 °W to 35°E, and 35 °N to 70°N) for the period 1901–2006. Large-scale structure is found to be abundant with 75 events identified lasting for more than 3 months and spanning at least 0.5 × 106 km2. Near-complete dissimilarity is seen between the individual drought structures, and little or no regularity is found in the time evolution of even the most spatially similar drought events. The spatial distribution of the event centroids and the time evolution of the geographic cross-sectional areas strongly suggest that large area, sustained droughts result from the combination of multiple small area (∼106 km2) short duration (∼3 months) events. The small events are not found to occur independently in space. This leads to the hypothesis that local water feedbacks play an important role in the aggregation process.

A novel alternative to cryopreservation for the short-term storage of stem cells for use in cell therapy using alginate encapsulation

Efficient transport of stem/progenitor cells without affecting their survival and function is a key factor in any practical cell-based therapy. However, the current approach using liquid nitrogen for the transfer of stem cells requires a short delivery time window is technically challenging and financially expensive. The present study aims to use semipermeable alginate hydrogels (crosslinked by strontium) to encapsulate, store, and release stem cells, to replace the conventional cryopreservation method for the transport of therapeutic cells within world-wide distribution time frame. Human mesenchymal stem cell (hMSC) and mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs) were successfully stored inside alginate hydrogels for 5 days under ambient conditions in an air-tight environment (sealed cryovial). Cell viability, of the cells extracted from alginate gel, gave 74% (mESC) and 80% (hMSC) survival rates, which compared favorably to cryopreservation. More importantly, the subsequent proliferation rate and detection of common stem cell markers (both in mRNA and protein level) from hMSCs and mESCs retrieved from alginate hydrogels were also comparable to (if not better than) results gained following cryopreservation. In conclusion, this new and simple application of alginate hydrogel encapsulation may offer a cheap and robust alternative to cryopreservation for the transport and storage of stem cells for both clinical and research purposes.

Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events

There is growing international concern at the rise in the severity of impact and frequency of extreme environmental events, potentially as a manifestation of global environmental change. There is a widely held belief that this trend could be linked with a future rise in the migration or displacement of human populations. However, recent approaches to migration influenced by environmental change call into question the notion that migration can be ascribed in a singular way to particular environmental causes or events. This paper undertakes a systematic review of evidence on population movements associated with weather-related extreme events. The paper demonstrates that in the face of extreme environmental events, it is important to distinguish between three outcomes – migration, displacement, and immobility – each of which interact and respond to multiple drivers. It also proposes a further insight: that both those who move, and those who do not move, may find themselves trapped and vulnerable in the face of such extreme events. A review of evidence suggests that short-term displacement that goes hand-in-hand with loss of life, destruction of property and economic disruption poses significant risks not because it is ‘environmental migration’, but because it represents a failure of adaptation to environmental change.

Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere

In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here analysed to examine the differences amongst individual models and observations, to assess the consistency of model predictions, with a particular focus on polar ozone. For example, many models indicate a significant cold bias in high latitudes, the “cold pole problem”, particularly in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring. This is related to wave propagation from the troposphere which can be improved by improving model horizontal resolution and with the use of non-orographic gravity wave drag. As a result of the widely differing modelled polar temperatures, different amounts of polar stratospheric clouds are simulated which in turn result in varying ozone values in the models. The results are also compared to determine the possible future behaviour of ozone, with an emphasis on the polar regions and mid-latitudes. All models predict eventual ozone recovery, but give a range of results concerning its timing and extent. Differences in the simulation of gravity waves and planetary waves as well as model resolution are likely major sources of uncertainty for this issue. In the Antarctic, the ozone hole has probably reached almost its deepest although the vertical and horizontal extent of depletion may increase slightly further over the next few years. According to the model results, Antarctic ozone recovery could begin any year within the range 2001 to 2008. The limited number of models which have been integrated sufficiently far indicate that full recovery of ozone to 1980 levels may not occur in the Antarctic until about the year 2050. For the Arctic, most models indicate that small ozone losses may continue for a few more years and that recovery could begin any year within the range 2004 to 2019. The start of ozone recovery in the Arctic is therefore expected to appear later than in the Antarctic.

MOOCs: a systematic study of the published literature 2008-2012

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) are a recent addition to the range of online learning options. Since 2008, MOOCs have been run by a variety of public and elite universities, especially in North America. Many academics have taken interest in MOOCs recognising the potential to deliver education around the globe on an unprecedented scale; some of these academics are taking a research-oriented perspective and academic papers describing their research are starting to appear in the traditional media of peer reviewed publications. This paper presents a systematic review of the published MOOC literature (2008-2012): Forty-five peer reviewed papers are identified through journals, database searches, searching the Web, and chaining from known sources to form the base for this review. We believe this is the first effort to systematically review literature relating to MOOCs, a fairly recent but massively popular phenomenon with a global reach. The review categorises the literature into eight different areas of interest, introductory, concept, case studies, educational theory, technology, participant focussed, provider focussed, and other, while also providing quantitative analysis of publications according to publication type, year of publication, and contributors. Future research directions guided by gaps in the literature are explored.

20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap

The Asian summer monsoon is a high dimensional and highly nonlinear phenomenon involving considerable moisture transport towards land from the ocean, and is critical for the whole region. We have used daily ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies to the seasonal cycle, over the region 50-145°E, 20°S-35°N to study the nonlinearity of the Asian monsoon using Isomap. We have focused on the two-dimensional embedding of the SLP anomalies for ease of interpretation. Unlike the unimodality obtained from tests performed in empirical orthogonal function space, the probability density function, within the two-dimensional Isomap space, turns out to be bimodal. But a clustering procedure applied to the SLP data reveals support for three clusters, which are identified using a three-component bivariate Gaussian mixture model. The modes are found to appear similar to active and break phases of the monsoon over South Asia in addition to a third phase, which shows active conditions over the Western North Pacific. Using the low-level wind field anomalies the active phase over South Asia is found to be characterised by a strengthening and an eastward extension of the Somali jet whereas during the break phase the Somali jet is weakened near southern India, while the monsoon trough in northern India also weakens. Interpretation is aided using the APHRODITE gridded land precipitation product for monsoon Asia. The effect of large-scale seasonal mean monsoon and lower boundary forcing, in the form of ENSO, is also investigated and discussed. The outcome here is that ENSO is shown to perturb the intraseasonal regimes, in agreement with conceptual ideas.