Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Effect of milk type and processing on iodine concentration of organic and conventional winter milk at retail: implications for nutrition

Milk is the largest source of iodine in UK diets and an earlier study showed that organic summer milk had significantly lower iodine concentration than conventional milk. There are no comparable studies with winter milk or the effect of milk fat class or heat processing method. Two retail studies with winter milk are reported. Study 1 showed no effect of fat class but organic milk was 32.2% lower in iodine than conventional milk (404 vs. 595 μg/L; P < 0.001). Study 2 found no difference between conventional and Channel Island milk but organic milk contained 35.5% less iodine than conventional milk (474 vs. 306 μg/L; P < 0.001). UHT and branded organic milk also had lower iodine concentrations than conventional milk (331 μg/L; P < 0.001 and 268 μg/L: P < 0.0001 respectively). The results indicate that replacement of conventional milk by organic or UHT milk will increase the risk of sub-optimal iodine status especially for pregnant/lactating women.

Flanking SNP markers for vicine–convicine concentration in faba bean (Vicia faba L).

The pyrimidine glycosides, vicine and convicine, limit the use of faba bean (Vicia faba L.) as food and feed. A single recessive gene, vc-, is responsible for a lowered vicine–convicine concentration. The biosynthetic pathway of these closely related compounds is not known, and the nearest available markers are several cM away from vc-. Improved markers would assist breeding and help to identify candidate genes. A segregating population of 210 F5 recombinant inbred lines was developed from the cross of Mélodie/2 (low vicine–convicine) × ILB 938/2 (normal vicine–convicine), and vicine–convicine concentrations were determined twice on each line. The population was genotyped with a set of 188 SNPs. A strong, single QTL for vicine–convicine concentration was identified on chromosome I, flanked by markers 1.0 cM away on one side and 2.6 cM on the other. The interval defined by these markers in the model species Medicago truncatula includes about 340 genes, but no candidate genes were identified. Further fine mapping should lead to the identification of tightly linked markers as well as narrowing down the search for candidate regulatory or biosynthetic genes which could underlie the vc- locus.

Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims.

Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land-use in the representative concentration pathways

Climate change is projected to cause substantial alterations in vegetation distribution, but these have been given little attention in comparison to land-use in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here we assess the climate-induced land cover changes (CILCC) in the RCPs, and compare them to land-use land cover change (LULCC). To do this, we use an ensemble of simulations with and without LULCC in earth system model HadGEM2-ES for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We find that climate change causes an expansion poleward of vegetation that affects more land area than LULCC in all of the RCPs considered here. The terrestrial carbon changes from CILCC are also larger than for LULCC. When considering only forest, the LULCC is larger, but the CILCC is highly variable with the overall radiative forcing of the scenario. The CILCC forest increase compensates 90% of the global anthropogenic deforestation by 2100 in RCP8.5, but just 3% in RCP2.6. Overall, bigger land cover changes tend to originate from LULCC in the shorter term or lower radiative forcing scenarios, and from CILCC in the longer term and higher radiative forcing scenarios. The extent to which CILCC could compensate for LULCC raises difficult questions regarding global forest and biodiversity offsetting, especially at different timescales. This research shows the importance of considering the relative size of CILCC to LULCC, especially with regard to the ecological effects of the different RCPs.

Factors affecting the concentration in seven-spotted ladybirds (Coccinella septempunctata L.) of Cd and Zn transferred through the food chain

The transfer of Cd and Zn from soils amended with sewage sludge was followed through a food chain consisting of wheat, aphids and the predator Coccinella septempunctata. Multiple regression models were generated to predict the concentrations of Cd and Zn in C. septempunctata. No significant model could be generated for Cd, indicting that the concentration of this metal was maintained within relatively narrow limits. A model predicting 64% of the variability in the Zn concentration of C. septempunctata was generated from of the concentration of Zn in the diet, time and rate of Zn consumption. The results suggest that decreasing the rate of food consumption is an effective mechanism to prevent the accumulation of Zn and that the availability of Zn in the aphid prey increased with the concentration in the aphids. The results emphasise the importance of using ecologically relevant food chains and exposure pathways during ecotoxicological studies.

Effects of aphid infestation on Cd and Zn concentration in wheat

The effect of infestation by the aphid Metopolophium dirhodum on the concentration and mass partitioning of Cd and Zn was studied in wheat plants. Results show that infestation did not affect the concentration of either metal in the roots or shoots of wheat, but elevated concentrations in the ears. This appeared to result from the concentration of metal in the smaller ear mass of infested plants. Infestation did not significantly affect the mass partitioning of either metal in any part of the plant, some 10% of both metals being allocated to the roots. However, the two metals contrasted in their partitioning in the aerial parts of the plant, with ca. 60% of Cd mass partitioned in the shoots and ca. 67% of Zn mass partitioned in the ears. The possible effects of infestation on the transfer of Cd and Zn from the soil to cereal aphids are discussed.

The concentration of creditors: evidence from small businesses

This article examines the determinants of concentration of creditors. The empirical evidence drawn from this article supports the proposition of Bolton and Scharfstein (1996) that for negotiation reasons, high-quality borrowers tend to borrow from multiple sources and is contrary to the theoretical prediction of Bris and Welch (2005). This finding implies the existence of hold-up problems in financing small businesses where information conveyance is difficult between lenders. It is further supported by the evidence that dispersed bank relationships are associated with relationships of a longer history and a closer physical distance to lenders.

Bank market concentration, relationship banking and small business liquidity

This paper examines two contrasting interpretations of how bank market concentration (Market Power Hypothesis) and banking relationships (Information Hypothesis) affect three sources of small firm liquidity (cash, lines of credit and trade credit). Supportive of a market power interpretation, we find that in a highly concentrated banking market, small firms hold less cash, have less access to lines of credit, and are more likely to be financially constrained, use greater amounts of more expensive trade credit and face higher penalties for trade credit late payment. We also find support for the information hypothesis: relationship banking improves small business liquidity, particularly in a concentrated banking market, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of bank market concentration derived from market power. Our results are robust to different cash, lines of credit and trade credit measures and to alternative empirical approaches.

Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.

Spatial and temporal variability of the concentration field from localized releases in a regular building array

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in the concentration field from an ensemble of continuous point-source releases in a regular building array are analyzed from data generated by direct numerical simulations. The release is of a passive scalar under conditions of neutral stability. Results are related to the underlying flow structure by contrasting data for an imposed wind direction of 0 deg and 45 deg relative to the buildings. Furthermore, the effects of distance from the source and vicinity to the plume centreline on the spatial and temporal variability are documented. The general picture that emerges is that this particular geometry splits the flow domain into segments (e.g. “streets” and “intersections”) in each of which the air is, to a first approximation, well mixed. Notable exceptions to this general rule include regions close to the source, near the plume edge, and in unobstructed channels when the flow is aligned. In the oblique (45 deg) case the strongly three-dimensional nature of the flow enhances mixing of a scalar within the canopy leading to reduced temporal and spatial concentration fluctuations within the plume core. These fluctuations are in general larger for the parallel flow (0 deg) case, especially so in the long unobstructed channels. Due to the more complex flow structure in the canyon-type streets behind buildings, fluctuations are lower than in the open channels, though still substantially larger than for oblique flow. These results are relevant to the formulation of simple models for dispersion in urban areas and to the quantification of the uncertainties in their predictions.