Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Talent in autism: hyper-systemising, hyper-attention to detail and sensory hypersensitivity

We argue that hyper-systemizing predisposes individuals to show talent, and review evidence that hyper-systemizing is part of the cognitive style of people with autism spectrum conditions (ASC). We then clarify the hyper-systemizing theory, contrasting it to the weak central coherence (WCC) and executive dysfunction (ED) theories. The ED theory has difficulty explaining the existence of talent in ASC. While both hyper-systemizing and WCC theories postulate excellent attention to detail, by itself excellent attention to detail will not produce talent. By contrast, the hyper-systemizing theory argues that the excellent attention to detail is directed towards detecting 'if p, then q' rules (or [input-operation-output] reasoning). Such law-based pattern recognition systems can produce talent in systemizable domains. Finally, we argue that the excellent attention to detail in ASC is itself a consequence of sensory hypersensitivity. We review an experiment from our laboratory demonstrating sensory hypersensitivity detection thresholds in vision. We conclude that the origins of the association between autism and talent begin at the sensory level, include excellent attention to detail and end with hyper-systemizing.

Generative topographic mapping applied to clustering and visualization of motor unit action potentials

The identification and visualization of clusters formed by motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) is an essential step in investigations seeking to explain the control of the neuromuscular system. This work introduces the generative topographic mapping (GTM), a novel machine learning tool, for clustering of MUAPs, and also it extends the GTM technique to provide a way of visualizing MUAPs. The performance of GTM was compared to that of three other clustering methods: the self-organizing map (SOM), a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and the neural-gas network (NGN). The results, based on the study of experimental MUAPs, showed that the rate of success of both GTM and SOM outperformed that of GMM and NGN, and also that GTM may in practice be used as a principled alternative to the SOM in the study of MUAPs. A visualization tool, which we called GTM grid, was devised for visualization of MUAPs lying in a high-dimensional space. The visualization provided by the GTM grid was compared to that obtained from principal component analysis (PCA). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study into the impact of introducing Year 5 students to university and electronic engineering

This paper demonstrates the benefits of introducing Year 5 school students to university life, encountering styles of teaching to which they would be otherwise unaccustomed; and the results of a survey conducted both before and after the study visit to determine whether the visit was beneficial to the students in academic terms.

Nocturnal ranging behaviour of urban hedgehogs, Erinaceus europaeus, in relation to risk and reward

Urban areas have both positive and negative influences on wildlife. For terrestrial mammals, one of the principle problems is the risk associated with moving through the environment whilst foraging. In this study, we examined nocturnal patterns of movement of urban-dwelling hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in relation to (i) the risks posed by predators and motor vehicles and (ii) nightly weather patterns. Hedgehogs preferentially utilised the gardens of semi-detached and terraced houses. However, females, but not males, avoided the larger back gardens of detached houses, which contain more of the habitat features selected by badgers. This difference in the avoidance of predation risk is probably associated with sex differences in breeding behaviour. Differences in nightly movement patterns were consistent with strategies associated with mating behaviour and the accumulation of fat reserves for hibernation. Hedgehogs also exhibited differences in behaviour associated with the risks posed by humans; they avoided actively foraging near roads and road verges, but did not avoid crossing roads per se. They were, however, significantly more active after midnight when there was a marked reduction in vehicle and foot traffic. In particular, responses to increased temperature, which is associated with increased abundance of invertebrate prey, were only observed after midnight. This variation in the timing of bouts of activity would reduce the risks associated with human activities. There were also profound differences in both area ranged and activity with chronological year which warrant further investigation.

Blood-clotting response tests for resistance to diphacinone and chlorophacinone in the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus Berk.)

Resistance baselines were obtained for the first generation anticoagulant rodenticides chlorophacinone and diphacinone using laboratory, caesarian-derived Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) as the susceptible strain and the blood clotting response test method. The ED99 estimates for a quantal response were: chlorophacinone, males 0.86 mg kg−1, females 1.03 mg kg−1; diphacinone, males 1.26 mg kg−1, females 1.60 mg kg−1. The dose-response data also showed that chlorophacinone was significantly (p<0.0001) more potent than diphacinone for both male and female rats, and that male rats were more susceptible than females to both compounds (p<0.002). The ED99 doses were then given to groups of five male and five female rats of the Welsh and Hampshire warfarin-resistant strains. Twenty-four hours later, prothrombin times were slightly elevated in both strains but all the animals were classified as resistant to the two compounds, indicating cross-resistance from warfarin to diphacinone and chlorophacinone. When rats of the two resistant strains were fed for six consecutive days on baits containing either diphacinone or chlorophacinone, many animals survived, indicating that their resistance might enable them to survive treatments with these compounds in the field.

Geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier, Kodar Mountains, eastern Siberia, and its links to observed and projected climatic change

The Kodar Mountains in eastern Siberia accommodate 30 small, cold-based glaciers with a combined surface area of about 19 km2. Very little is known about these glaciers, with the first survey conducted in the late 1950s. In this paper, we use terrestrial photogrammetry to calculate changes in surface area, elevation, volume and geodetic mass balance of the Azarova Glacier between 1979 and 2007 and relate these to meteorological data from nearby Chara weather station (1938-2007). The glacier surface area declined by 20±6.9% and surface lowered on average by 20±1.8 m (mean thinning: 0.71 m a-1) resulting in a strongly negative cumulative and average mass balance of -18±1.6 m w.e. and -640±60 mm w.e.a-1 respectively. The July-August air temperature increased at a rate of 0.036oC a-1 between 1979 and 2007 and the 1980-2007 period was, on average, around 1oC warmer than 1938-1979. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in 2071–2100 by 2.6-4.7°C and 4.9-6.2°C respectively in comparison with 1961–1990. The annual total of solid precipitation will increase by 20% under B2 scenario but decline by 3% under A2 scenario. The length of the ablation season will extend from July–August to June-September. The Azarova Glacier exhibits high sensitivity to climatic warming due to its low elevation, exposure to comparatively high summer temperatures, and the absence of a compensating impact of cold season precipitation. Further summer warming and decline of solid precipitation projected under the A2 scenario will force Azarova to retreat further while impacts of an increase in solid precipitation projected under the B2 scenario require further investigation.

Rhenium-to-benzoylpyridine and rhenium-to-bipyridine MLCT excited states offac-[Re(Cl)(4-benzoylpyridine)2(CO)3] andfac-[Re(4-benzoylpyridine)(CO)3(bpy)]+: a time-resolved spectroscopic and spectroelectrochemical study

The lowest allowed electronic transition of fac-[Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(bopy)(2)] (bopy = 4-benzoylpyridine) has a Re --> bopy MLCT character, as revealed by UV-vis and stationary resonance Raman spectroscopy. Accordingly, the lowest-lying, long-lived, excited state is Re --> bopy (MLCT)-M-3. Electronic depopulation of the Re(CO)(3) unit and population of a bopy pi* orbital upon excitation are evident by the upward shift of v(Cequivalent toO) vibrations and a downward shift of the ketone v(C=O) vibration, respectively, seen in picosecond time-resolved IR spectra. Moreover, reduction of a single bopy ligand in the (MLCT)-M-3 excited state is indicated by time-resolved visible and resonance Raman (TR3) spectra that show features typical of bopy(.-). In contrast, the lowest allowed electronic transition and lowest-lying excited state of a new complex fac-[Re(bopy)(CO)(3)(bpy)](+) (bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine) have been identified as Re --> bpy MLCT with no involvement of the bopy ligand, despite the fact that the first reduction of this complex is bopy-localized, as was proven spectroelectrochemically. This is a rare case in which the localizations of the lowest MLCT excitation and the first reduction are different. (MLCT)-M-3 excited states of both fac-[Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(bopy)(2)] and fac-[Re(bopy)(CO)(3)(bpy)](+) are initially formed vibrationally hot. Their relaxation is manifested by picosecond dynamic shifts of v(Cequivalent toO) IR bands. The X-ray structure of fac-[Re(bopy)(CO)(3)(bpy)](PF6CH3CN)-C-. has been determined.