Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

In 2005, the ECMWF held a workshop on stochastic parameterisation, at which the convection was seen as being a key issue. That much is clear from the working group reports and particularly the statement from working group 1 that “it is clear that a stochastic convection scheme is desirable”. The present note aims to consider our current status in comparison with some of the issues raised and hopes expressed in that working group report.

Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model

Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large-scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large-scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large-scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case-to-case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Physical interpretation of the spectral radiative signature in the transition zone between cloud-free and cloudy regions

One-second-resolution zenith radiance measure- ments from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement pro- gram’s new shortwave spectrometer (SWS) provide a unique opportunity to analyze the transition zone between cloudy and cloud-free air, which has considerable bearing on the aerosol indirect effect. In the transition zone, we find a re- markable linear relationship between the sum and difference of radiances at 870 and 1640 nm wavelengths. The intercept of the relationship is determined primarily by aerosol prop- erties, and the slope by cloud properties. We then show that this linearity can be predicted from simple theoretical con- siderations and furthermore that it supports the hypothesis of inhomogeneous mixing, whereby optical depth increases as a cloud is approached but the effective drop size remains un- changed.

Bells and whistles of convection parameterization

The present workshop constitutes the 5th in the annual series on “Concepts for Convective Parameterizations in Large-Scale Models”. The purpose of the workshop series has been to discuss the fundamental theoretical issues of convection parameterization with a small number of European scientists. The workshop series has been funded by European Cooperation in the Field of Scientific and Technical Research (COST) Action ES0905. The theme of the workshop for the year 2012 was decided from a main conclusion of the previous workshop, which focused on the convective organization problem, seeking a means for implementing such effects into convection parameterizations (Yano et al. 2012). As it turned out, in order to discuss this implementation issue in any concrete manner, we have first to know very well the bells and whistles of convection parameterizations. This was the purpose of the 5th workshop. The title of the workshop is rather metaphorically tagged as “Bulk or Spectrum?”, because this is a typical decision we have to face at the outset of any parameterization development. The following report discusses selected issues of bells and whistles addressed during the meeting.

The impact of buffer zone size and management on illegal extraction, park protection and enforcement

Many protected areas or parks in developing countries have buffer zones at their boundaries to achieve the dual goals of protecting park resources and providing resource benefits to neighbouring people. Despite the prevalence of these zoning policies, few behavioural models of people’s buffer zone use inform the sizing and management of those zones. This paper uses a spatially explicit resource extraction model to examine the impact of buffer zone size and management on extraction by local people, both legal and illegal, and the impact of that extraction on forest quality in the park’s core and buffer zone. The results demonstrate trade-offs between the level of enforcement, the size of a buffer zone, and the amount of illegal extraction in the park; and describe implications for “enrichment” of buffer zones and evaluating patterns of forest degradation.

Interactions between shallow and deep convection under a finite departure from convective quasi–equilibrium

The present paper presents a simple theory for the transformation of non-precipitating, shallow convection into precipitating, deep convective clouds. In order to make the pertinent point a much idealized system is considered, consisting only of shallow and deep convection without large–scale forcing. The transformation is described by an explicit coupling between these two types of convection. Shallow convection moistens and cools the atmosphere, whereas deep convection dries and warms, leading to destabilization and stabilization respectively. Consequently, in their own stand–alone modes, shallow convection perpetually grows, whereas deep convection simply damps: the former never reaches equilibrium, and the latter is never spontaneously generated. Coupling the modes together is the only way to reconcile these undesirable separate tendencies so that the convective system as a whole can remain in a stable periodic state under this idealized setting. Such coupling is a key missing element in current global atmospheric models. The energy–cycle description as originally formulated by Arakawa and Schubert, and presented herein is suitable for direct implementation into models using a mass–flux parameterization, and would alleviate the current problems with the representation of these two types of convection in numerical models. The present theory also provides a pertinent framework for analyzing large–eddy simulations and cloud–resolving modelling.

Under what conditions does embedded convection enhance orographic precipitation?

Idealised convection-permitting simulations are used to quantify the impact of embedded convection on the precipitation generated by moist flow over midlatitude mountain ridges. A broad range of mountain dimensions and moist stabilities are considered to encompass a spectrum of physically plausible flows. The simulations reveal that convection only enhances orographic precipitation in cap clouds that are otherwise unable to efficiently convert cloud condensate into precipitate. For tall and wide mountains (e.g. the Washington Cascades or the southern Andes), precipitate forms efficiently through vapour deposition and collection, even in the absence of embedded convection. When embedded convection develops in such clouds, it produces competing effects (enhanced condensation in updraughts and enhanced evaporation through turbulent mixing and compensating subsidence) that cancel to yield little net change in precipitation. By contrast, convection strongly enhances precipitation over short and narrow mountains (e.g. the UK Pennines or the Oregon Coastal Range) where precipitation formation is otherwise highly inefficient. Although cancellation between increased condensation and evaporation still occurs, the enhanced precipitation formation within the convective updraughts leads to a net increase in precipitation efficiency. The simulations are physically interpreted through non-dimensional diagnostics and relevant time-scales that govern advective, microphysical, and convective processes.

Precipitation distributions for explicit versus parameterized convection in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study

Global climate and weather models tend to produce rainfall that is too light and too regular over the tropical ocean. This is likely because of convective parametrizations, but the problem is not well understood. Here, distributions of precipitation rates are analyzed for high-resolution UK Met Office Unified Model simulations of a 10 day case study over a large tropical domain (∼20°S–20°N and 42°E–180°E). Simulations with 12 km grid length and parametrized convection have too many occurrences of light rain and too few of heavier rain when interpolated onto a 1° grid and compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. In fact, this version of the model appears to have a preferred scale of rainfall around 0.4 mm h−1 (10 mm day−1), unlike observations of tropical rainfall. On the other hand, 4 km grid length simulations with explicit convection produce distributions much more similar to TRMM observations. The apparent preferred scale at lighter rain rates seems to be a feature of the convective parametrization rather than the coarse resolution, as demonstrated by results from 12 km simulations with explicit convection and 40 km simulations with parametrized convection. In fact, coarser resolution models with explicit convection tend to have even more heavy rain than observed. Implications for models using convective parametrizations, including interactions of heating and moistening profiles with larger scales, are discussed. One important implication is that the explicit convection 4 km model has temperature and moisture tendencies that favour transitions in the convective regime. Also, the 12 km parametrized convection model produces a more stable temperature profile at its extreme high-precipitation range, which may reduce the chance of very heavy rainfall. Further study is needed to determine whether unrealistic precipitation distributions are due to some fundamental limitation of convective parametrizations or whether parametrizations can be improved, in order to better simulate these distributions.

Predicting natural ventilation in a two-zone building driven by combined forces.

Natural ventilation relies on less controllable natural forces so that it needs more artificial control, and thus its prediction, design and analysis become more important. This paper presents both theoretical and numerical simulations for predicting the natural ventilation flow in a two-zone building with multiple openings which is subjected to the combined natural forces. To our knowledge, this is the first analytical solutions obtained so far for a building with more than one zones and in each zone with possibly more than 2 openings. The analytical solution offers a possibility for validating a multi-zone airflow program. A computer program MIX is employed to conduct the numerical simulation. Good agreement is achieved. Different airflow modes are identified and some design recommendations are also provided.

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared to observations during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The parameterized convection model simulations at both 40 km and 12 km grid spacing have a very weak MJO signal and little eastward propagation. A 4 km explicit convection simulation using Smagorinsky subgrid mixing in the vertical and horizontal dimensions exhibits the best MJO strength and propagation speed. 12 km explicit convection simulations also perform much better than the 12 km parameterized convection run, suggesting that the convection scheme, rather than horizontal resolution, is key for these MJO simulations. Interestingly, a 4 km explicit convection simulation using the conventional boundary layer scheme for vertical subgrid mixing (but still using Smagorinsky horizontal mixing) completely loses the large-scale MJO organization, showing that relatively high resolution with explicit convection does not guarantee a good MJO simulation. Models with a good MJO representation have a more realistic relationship between lower-free-tropospheric moisture and precipitation, supporting the idea that moisture-convection feedback is a key process for MJO propagation. There is also increased generation of available potential energy and conversion of that energy into kinetic energy in models with a more realistic MJO, which is related to larger zonal variance in convective heating and vertical velocity, larger zonal temperature variance around 200 hPa, and larger correlations between temperature and ascent (and between temperature and diabatic heating) between 500–400 hPa.

Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.