Can we explain the dynamics of the UK FTSE 100 stock and stock index futures markets?

If stock and stock index futures markets are functioning properly price movements in these markets should best be described by a first order vector error correction model with the error correction term being the price differential between the two markets (the basis). Recent evidence suggests that there are more dynamics present than should be in effectively functioning markets. Using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, this study analyses whether such dynamics can be related to different regimes within which the basis can fluctuate in a predictable manner without triggering arbitrage. These findings reveal that the basis shows strong evidence of autoregressive behaviour when its value is between the two thresholds but that the extra dynamics disappear once the basis moves above the upper threshold and their persistence is reduced, although not eradicated, once the basis moves below the lower threshold. This suggests that once nonlinearity associated with transactions costs is accounted for, stock and stock index futures markets function more effectively than is suggested by linear models of the pricing relationship.

Organic food: what we know (and do not know) about consumers

This paper reports on the latest contributions to over 20 years of research on organic food consumers. There is a general consensus in the literature on the reasons why people buy organic food. However, there is also a gap between consumers’ generally positive attitude toward organic food and their relatively low level of actual purchases. Product differentiation based on intangible features, such as credence attributes such as organic, in fast-moving consumer goods categories is enjoying rapid growth. However, there are many difficulties with research in this area, including the errors inherent in research that relies on consumer self-reporting methodologies. Further, in relation to organic food, there is a divergence between consumers’ perception of its superior health features and scientific evidence. Fresh fruits and vegetables are of vital importance to the organic sector as they are the entry point for many customers and account for one-third of sales. Further, although there is a small proportion of dedicated organic food buyers, most sales come from the majority of buyers who switch between conventional and organic food purchases. This paper identifies the practical implications for generic organic food marketing campaigns, as well as for increasing sales of specific products. It concludes with suggested priorities for further research.

Should we be utopophobes about democracy in particular?

In his book Democratic Authority, David Estlund puts forward a case for democracy, which he labels epistemic proceduralism, that relies on democracy's ability to produce good – that is, substantively just – results. Alongside this case for democracy Estlund attacks what he labels ‘utopophobia’, an aversion to idealistic political theory. In this article I make two points. The first is a general point about what the correct level of ‘idealisation’ is in political theory. Various debates are emerging on this question and, to the extent that they are focused on ‘political theory’ as a whole, I argue, they are flawed. This is because there are different kinds of political concept, and they require different kinds of ideal. My second point is about democracy in particular. If we understand democracy as Estlund does, then we should see it as a problem-solving concept – the problem being that we need coercive institutions and rules, but we do not know what justice requires. As democracy is a response to a problem, we should not allow our theories of it, even at the ideal level, to be too idealised – they must be embedded in the nature of the problem they are to solve, and the beings that have it.

Global trajectory optimisation: can we prune the solution space when considering deep space manoeuvres?

This document contains a report on the work done under the ESA/Ariadna study 06/4101 on the global optimization of space trajectories with multiple gravity assist (GA) and deep space manoeuvres (DSM). The study was performed by a joint team of scientists from the University of Reading and the University of Glasgow.

Adjuvant chemotherapy in older women (ACTION) study - what did we learn from the pilot phase?

Despite widespread support at several public meetings, input from patient groups including representation on the Trial Management Group, the trial failed to recruit due to the inability to convince patients to accept randomisation. It would therefore seem that randomising the patients to receive chemotherapy vs observation is not a viable design in the current era for this patient population.