The quasi-nondispersive regimes of long extratropical baroclinic rossby waves over (slowly varying) topography

Actual energy paths of long, extratropical baroclinic Rossby waves in the ocean are difficult to describe simply because they depend on the meridional-wavenumber-to-zonal-wavenumber ratio tau, a quantity that is difficult to estimate both observationally and theoretically. This paper shows, however, that this dependence is actually weak over any interval in which the zonal phase speed varies approximately linearly with tau, in which case the propagation becomes quasi-nondispersive (QND) and describable at leading order in terms of environmental conditions (i.e., topography and stratification) alone. As an example, the purely topographic case is shown to possess three main kinds of QND ray paths. The first is a topographic regime in which the rays follow approximately the contours f/h(alpha c) = a constant (alpha(c) is a near constant fixed by the strength of the stratification, f is the Coriolis parameter, and h is the ocean depth). The second and third are, respectively, "fast" and "slow" westward regimes little affected by topography and associated with the first and second bottom-pressure-compensated normal modes studied in previous work by Tailleux and McWilliams. Idealized examples show that actual rays can often be reproduced with reasonable accuracy by replacing the actual dispersion relation by its QND approximation. The topographic regime provides an upper bound ( in general a large overestimate) of the maximum latitudinal excursions of actual rays. The method presented in this paper is interesting for enabling an optimal classification of purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems into simpler idealized QND wave regimes, which helps to rationalize previous empirical findings that the ray paths of long Rossby waves in the presence of mean flow and topography often seem to be independent of the wavenumber orientation. Two important side results are to establish that the baroclinic string function regime of Tyler and K se is only valid over a tiny range of the topographic parameter and that long baroclinic Rossby waves propagating over topography do not obey any two-dimensional potential vorticity conservation principle. Given the importance of the latter principle in geophysical fluid dynamics, the lack of it in this case makes the concept of the QND regimes all the more important, for they are probably the only alternative to provide a simple and economical description of general purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems.

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

Characteristic magnetic field and speed properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions

Prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures, is essential for space weather forecasting. To achieve forecast lead times of a day or more, such predictions must be made on the basis of remote solar observations. A number of empirical prediction schemes have been proposed to forecast the transit time and speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at 1 AU. However, the current lack of magnetic field measurements in the corona severely limits our ability to forecast the 1 AU magnetic field strengths resulting from interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). In this study we investigate the relation between the characteristic magnetic field strengths and speeds of both magnetic cloud and noncloud ICMEs at 1 AU. Correlation between field and speed is found to be significant only in the sheath region ahead of magnetic clouds, not within the clouds themselves. The lack of such a relation in the sheaths ahead of noncloud ICMEs is consistent with such ICMEs being skimming encounters of magnetic clouds, though other explanations are also put forward. Linear fits to the radial speed profiles of ejecta reveal that faster-traveling ICMEs are also expanding more at 1 AU. We combine these empirical relations to form a prediction scheme for the magnetic field strength in the sheaths ahead of magnetic clouds and also suggest a method for predicting the radial speed profile through an ICME on the basis of upstream measurements.

Moving boundary value problems for the wave equation

We study certain boundary value problems for the one-dimensional wave equation posed in a time-dependent domain. The approach we propose is based on a general transform method for solving boundary value problems for integrable nonlinear PDE in two variables, that has been applied extensively to the study of linear parabolic and elliptic equations. Here we analyse the wave equation as a simple illustrative example to discuss the particular features of this method in the context of linear hyperbolic PDEs, which have not been studied before in this framework.

Boundary value problems for the N-wave interaction equations

We consider boundary value problems for the N-wave interaction equations in one and two space dimensions, posed for x [greater-or-equal, slanted] 0 and x,y [greater-or-equal, slanted] 0, respectively. Following the recent work of Fokas, we develop an inverse scattering formalism to solve these problems by considering the simultaneous spectral analysis of the two ordinary differential equations in the associated Lax pair. The solution of the boundary value problems is obtained through the solution of a local Riemann–Hilbert problem in the one-dimensional case, and a nonlocal Riemann–Hilbert problem in the two-dimensional case.

Wave functions for the methane molecule

If the potential field due to the nuclei in the methane molecule is expanded in terms of a set of spherical harmonics about the carbon nucleus, only the terms involving s, f, and higher harmonic functions differ from zero in the equilibrium configuration. Wave functions have been calculated for the equilibrium configuration, first including only the spherically symmetric s term in the potential, and secondly including both the s and the f terms. In the first calculation the complete Hartree-Fock S.C.F. wave functions were determined; in the second calculation a variation method was used to determine the best form of the wave function involving f harmonics. The resulting wave functions and electron density functions are presented and discussed

A global climatology of wind–wave interaction

Generally, ocean waves are thought to act as a drag on the surface wind so that momentum is transferred downwards, from the atmosphere into the waves. Recent observations have suggested that when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the surface wind momentum can also be transferred upwards. This upward momentum transfer acts to accelerate the near-surface wind, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. Previous studies have suggested that the sign reversal of the momentum flux is well predicted by the inverse wave age, the ratio of the surface wind speed to the speed of the waves at the peak of the spectrum. ECMWF ERA-40 data has been used here to calculate the global distribution of the inverse wave age to determine whether there are regions of the ocean that are usually in the wind-driven wave regime and others that are generally in the wave-driven wind regime. The wind-driven wave regime is found to occur most often in the mid-latitude storm tracks where wind speeds are generally high. The wave-driven wind regime is found to be prevalent in the tropics where wind speeds are generally light and swell can propagate from storms at higher latitudes. The inverse wave age is also a useful indicator of the degree of coupling between the local wind and wave fields. The climatologies presented emphasise the non-equilibrium that exists between the local wind and wave fields and highlight the importance of swell in the global oceans.

A Nyström method for a boundary value problem arising in unsteady water wave problems

This paper is concerned with solving numerically the Dirichlet boundary value problem for Laplace’s equation in a nonlocally perturbed half-plane. This problem arises in the simulation of classical unsteady water wave problems. The starting point for the numerical scheme is the boundary integral equation reformulation of this problem as an integral equation of the second kind on the real line in Preston et al. (2008, J. Int. Equ. Appl., 20, 121–152). We present a Nystr¨om method for numerical solution of this integral equation and show stability and convergence, and we present and analyse a numerical scheme for computing the Dirichlet-to-Neumann map, i.e., for deducing the instantaneous fluid surface velocity from the velocity potential on the surface, a key computational step in unsteady water wave simulations. In particular, we show that our numerical schemes are superalgebraically convergent if the fluid surface is infinitely smooth. The theoretical results are illustrated by numerical experiments.