The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Regulatory reform and productivity change in Indian banking

This paper examines the impact of regulatory reform on productivity growth and its components for Indian banks in 1992-2009. We estimate parametric and non-parametric efficiency frontiers, followed by Divisia and Malmquist indexes of Total Factor Productivity respectively. To account for technology heterogeneity among ownership types we utilise a metafrontier approach. Results are consistent across methodologies and show sustained productivity growth, driven mainly by technological progress. Furthermore, results indicate that different ownership types react differently to changes in the operating environment. The position of foreign banks becomes increasingly dominant and their production technology becomes the best practice in the industry.

Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change

Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J).

In situ preservation of wetland heritage: hydrological and chemical change in the burial environment of the Somerset Levels, UK.

In Situ preservation is a core strategy for the conservation and management of waterlogged remains at wetland sites. Inorganic and organic remains can, however, quickly become degraded, or lost entirely, as a result of chemical or hydrological changes. Monitoring is therefore crucial in identifying baseline data for a site, the extent of spatial and or temporal variability, and in evaluating the potential impacts of these variables on current and future In Situ preservation potential. Since August 2009, monthly monitoring has taken place at the internationally important Iron Age site of Glastonbury Lake Village in the Somerset Levels, UK. A spatial, stratigraphic, and analytical approach to the analysis of sediment horizons and monitoring of groundwater chemistry, redox potential, water table depth and soil moisture (using TDR) was used to characterize the site. Significant spatial and temporal variability has been identified, with results from water-table monitoring and some initial chemical analysis from Glastonbury presented here. It appears that during dry periods parts of this site are at risk from desiccation. Analysis of the chemical data, in addition to integrating the results from the other parameters, is ongoing, with the aim of clarifying the risk to the entire site.

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change.

Quantitative estimates of glacial and Holocene temperature and precipitation change in lowland Amazonian Bolivia

Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation change during the late Pleistocene and Holocene have been difficult to obtain for much of the lowland Neotropics. Using two published lacustrine pollen records and a climate-vegetation model based on the modern abundance distributions of 154 Neotropical plant families, we demonstrate how family-level counts of fossil pollen can be used to quantitatively reconstruct tropical paleoclimate and provide needed information on historic patterns of climatic change. With this family-level analysis, we show that one area of the lowland tropics, northeastern Bolivia, experienced cooling (1–3 °C) and drying (400 mm/yr), relative to present, during the late Pleistocene (50,000–12,000 calendar years before present [cal. yr B.P.]). Immediately prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 cal. yr B.P.), we observe a distinct transition from cooler temperatures and variable precipitation to a period of warmer temperatures and relative dryness that extends to the middle Holocene (5000–3000 cal. yr B.P.). This prolonged reduction in precipitation occurs against the backdrop of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, indicating that the presence of mixed savanna and dry-forest communities in northeastern Bolivia durng the LGM was not solely the result of low CO2 levels, as suggested previously, but also lower precipitation. The results of our analysis demonstrate the potential for using the distribution and abundance structure of modern Neotropical plant families to infer paleoclimate from the fossil pollen record.

Linguistic interfaces and language acquisition in childhood: introduction to the special issue

Much contemporary L1 acquisition theory and empirical research are guided by the hypothesis that acquisition delays in children are often related to the integration of information across grammatical and other cognitive modules, such as syntax and discourse-pragmatics (see e.g., Grinstead, 2010). This special issue brings together cutting edge research from all relevant paradigms addressing interface issues in child language acquisition and provides a platform for the study of the interaction between different levels of linguistic knowledge. In this introduction, we present the reader with the tools needed to best understand the contributions of the individual studies and what they bring to bear on larger theoretical questions as a collective.

Universal and language-specific patterns of categorisation

Previous work on object classification preferences shows that speakers of languages that lack morphological plural marking (like Yucatec and Japanese) display a tendency to match objects by common material, while speakers of languages with morphological plural marking (like English) display a tendency to match objects by common shape. The present paper compares categorisation preferences of English and Japanese speakers with those of Greek speakers. Greek resembles English in that it has morphological plural marking, but contrasts with English in that mass nouns typically do not resist pluralization. Results show that all groups distinguish significantly between countable objects and non-countable substances, but the degree to which they do this differs and conforms to language-specific grammatical patterns. It is argued that the effects of grammatical structure on categorisation preferences are finer-grained than earlier studies have assumed, thus providing a more precise account of the extent and nature of linguistic influence on cognition.

Interaction between grammatical categories and cognition in bilinguals: The role of proficiency, cultural immersion, and language of instruction

Previous studies have demonstrated that there is a tight link between grammatical concepts and cognitive preferences in monolingual speakers (Lucy 1992, Lucy & Gaskins 2003, Imai & Gentner 1997, Imai & Mazuka 2003). Recent research has also shown that bilinguals with languages that differ in their concepts may shift their cognitive preferences as a function of their proficiency (Athanasopoulos, 2006) or cultural immersion (Cook, Bassetti, Kasai, Sasaki, & Takahashi, 2006). The current short paper assesses the relative impact of each of these variables, and furthermore asks whether bilinguals alternate between two distinct cognitive representations of language-specific concepts depending on the language used in the experiment. Results from an object classification task showed that Japanese–English bilinguals shifted their behaviour towards the second language (L2) pattern primarily as a function of their L2 proficiency, while cultural immersion and language of instruction played a minimal role. These findings suggest that acquisition of novel grammatical categories leads to cognitive restructuring in the bilingual mind and have implications for the relationship between language and cognitive processing.

Oxidised low-density lipoproteins induce rapid platelet activation and shape change through tyrosine kinase and Rho kinase-signaling pathways

Oxidized low-density lipoproteins (oxLDL) generated in the hyperlipidemic state may contribute to unregulated platelet activation during thrombosis. Although the ability of oxLDL to activate platelets is established, the underlying signaling mechanisms remain obscure. Weshow that oxLDL stimulate platelet activation through phosphorylation of the regulatory light chains of the contractile protein myosin IIa (MLC). oxLDL, but not native LDL, induced shape change, spreading, and phosphorylation of MLC (serine 19) through a pathway that was ablated under conditions that blocked CD36 ligation or inhibited Src kinases, suggesting a tyrosine kinase–dependent mechanism. Consistent with this, oxLDL induced tyrosine phosphorylation of a number of proteins including Syk and phospholipase C g2. Inhibition of Syk, Ca21 mobilization, and MLC kinase (MLCK) only partially inhibited MLC phosphorylation, suggesting the presence of a second pathway. oxLDL activated RhoA and RhoA kinase (ROCK) to induce inhibitory phosphorylation of MLC phosphatase (MLCP). Moreover, inhibition of Src kinases prevented the activation of RhoA and ROCK, indicating that oxLDL regulates contractile signaling through a tyrosine kinase–dependent pathway that induces MLC phosphorylation through the dual activation of MLCK and inhibition of MLCP. These data reveal new signaling events downstream of CD36 that are critical in promoting platelet aggregation by oxLDL.