The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Many climate models have problems simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability, resulting in considerable uncertainty in future projections. Problems may relate to many factors, such as local effects of the formulation of physical parametrisation schemes, while common model biases that develop elsewhere within the climate system may also be important. Here we examine the extent and impact of cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases developing in the northern Arabian Sea in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, where such SST biases are shown to be common. Such biases have previously been shown to reduce monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) by weakening moisture fluxes incident upon India. The Arabian Sea SST biases in CMIP5 models consistently develop in winter, via strengthening of the winter monsoon circulation, and persist into spring and summer. A clear relationship exists between Arabian Sea cold SST bias and weak monsoon rainfall in CMIP5 models, similar to effects in the MetUM. Part of this effect may also relate to other factors, such as forcing of the early monsoon by spring-time excessive equatorial precipitation. Atmosphere-only future time-slice experiments show that Arabian Sea cold SST biases have potential to weaken future monsoon rainfall increases by limiting moisture flux acceleration through non-linearity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Analysis of CMIP5 model future scenario simulations suggests that, while such effects are likely small compared to other sources of uncertainty, models with large Arabian Sea cold SST biases suppress the range of potential outcomes for changes to future early monsoon rainfall.

Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models

Analysis of 20th century simulations of the High resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) and the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models shows that most have a cold sea-surface temperature (SST) bias in the northern Arabian Sea during boreal winter. The association between Arabian Sea SST and the South Asian monsoon has been widely studied in observations and models, with winter cold biases known to be detrimental to rainfall simulation during the subsequent monsoon in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). However, the causes of these SST biases are not well understood. Indeed this is one of the first papers to address causes of the cold biases. The models show anomalously strong north-easterly winter monsoon winds and cold air temperatures in north-west India, Pakistan and beyond. This leads to the anomalous advection of cold, dry air over the Arabian Sea. The cold land region is also associated with an anomalously strong meridional surface temperature gradient during winter, contributing to the enhanced low-level convergence and excessive precipitation over the western equatorial Indian Ocean seen in many models.

Is missing orographic gravity wave drag near 60°S the cause of the stratospheric zonal wind biases in chemistry–climate models?

Nearly all chemistry–climate models (CCMs) have a systematic bias of a delayed springtime breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric polar vortex, implying insufficient stratospheric wave drag. In this study the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and the CMAM Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS) are used to investigate the cause of this bias. Zonal wind analysis increments from CMAMDAS reveal systematic negative values in the stratosphere near 608S in winter and early spring. These are interpreted as indicating a bias in the model physics, namely, missing gravity wave drag (GWD). The negative analysis increments remain at a nearly constant height during winter and descend as the vortex weakens, much like orographic GWD. This region is also where current orographic GWD parameterizations have a gap in wave drag, which is suggested to be unrealistic because of missing effects in those parameterizations. These findings motivate a pair of free-runningCMAMsimulations to assess the impact of extra orographicGWDat 608S. The control simulation exhibits the cold-pole bias and delayed vortex breakdown seen in the CCMs. In the simulation with extra GWD, the cold-pole bias is significantly reduced and the vortex breaks down earlier. Changes in resolved wave drag in the stratosphere also occur in response to the extra GWD, which reduce stratospheric SH polar-cap temperature biases in late spring and early summer. Reducing the dynamical biases, however, results in degraded Antarctic column ozone. This suggests that CCMs that obtain realistic column ozone in the presence of an overly strong and persistent vortex may be doing so through compensating errors.

A contribution to the wireless transmission of power

A resonant transmitter–receiver system is described for the wireless transmission of energy at a useful distance for grid-coordinate power and information. Experimental results are given showing delivery of power of an unmodified Tesla resonator contrasted with a modified version achieving improved efficiency over a 4 m range. A theoretical basis is provided to back up the experimental results obtained and to link the study with previous research in the field. A number of potential routes are suggested for further investigations and some possible applications of the technology are considered.

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study.

Impact of HPA nonlinearity on MIMO systems with quantized equal gain transmission

In this paper, we investigate the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems in the presence of nonlinear high-power amplifiers (HPAs). Due to the suboptimality of maximal ratio transmission/maximal ratio combining (MRT/MRC) under HPA nonlinearity, quantized equal gain transmission (QEGT) is suggested as a feasible TB scheme. The effect of HPA nonlinearity on the performance of MIMO QEGT/MRC is evaluated in terms of the average symbol error probability (SEP) and system capacity, considering transmission over uncorrelated quasi-static frequency-flat Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, such as the parameters of nonlinear HPA, cardinality of the beamforming weight vector codebook, and modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), on performance.

Voice, body and the transmission of the real in documentary theatre

This article analyses how listening is used to develop performances in Alecky Blythe’s verbatim theatre. Listening includes Blythe’s use of recorded oral interviews for devising performances, and also the actors’ creation of performance by precisely imitating an interviewee’s voice. The article focuses on listening, speaking and embodiment in London Road, Blythe’s recent musical play at London’s National Theatre, which adopted and modified theatre strategies used in her other plays, especially The Girlfriend Experience and Do We look Like Refugees. The article draws on interviews with performers and with Blythe herself, in its critical analysis of how voice legitimates claims to authenticity in performance. The work on Blythe is contextualised by brief comparative analyses. One is Clio Barnard’s film The Arbor, a ‘quasi-documentary’ on the playwright, Andrea Dunbar which makes use of an oral script to which the actors lip-sync. The other comparator is the Wooster Group’s Poor Theater, which attempts to recreate Grotowski's Akropolis via vocal impersonation. The article argues that voice in London Road both claims and defers authenticity and authority, inasmuch as voice signifies presence and embodied identity but the reworking of speech into song signals the absence of the real. The translation of voice into written surtitles works similarly in Do We Look Like Refugees. Blythe’s theatre, Barnard’s film and The Wooster Group’s performances are a useful framework for addressing questions of voice and identity, and authenticity and replication in documentary theatre. The article concludes by placing Blythe’s oral texts amid current debates around theatre’s textual practices.

Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models

The relationship between biases in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric blocking frequency and extratropical cyclone track density is investigated in 12 CMIP5 climate models to identify mechanisms underlying climate model biases and inform future model development. Biases in the Greenland blocking and summer Pacific blocking frequencies are associated with biases in the storm track latitudes while biases in winter European blocking frequency are related to the North Atlantic storm track tilt and Mediterranean cyclone density. However, biases in summer European and winter Pacific blocking appear less related with cyclone track density. Furthermore, the models with smaller biases in winter European blocking frequency have smaller biases in the cyclone density in Europe, which suggests that they are different aspects of the same bias. This is not found elsewhere in the NH. The summer North Atlantic and the North Pacific mean CMIP5 track density and blocking biases might therefore have different origins.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM General Circulation Model

We demonstrate that summer precipitation biases in the South Asian monsoon domain are sensitive to increasing the convective parametrisation’s entrainment and detrainment rates in the Met Office Unified Model. We explore this sensitivity to improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parametrisation. We perform novel targeted experiments in which we increase the entrainment and detrainment rates in regions of especially large precipitation bias. We use these experiments to determine whether the sensitivity at a given location is a consequence of the local change to convection or is a remote response to the change elsewhere. We find that a local change leads to different mean-state responses in comparable regions. When the entrainment and detrainment rates are increased globally, feedbacks between regions usually strengthen the local responses. We choose two regions of tropical ascent that show different mean-state responses, the western equatorial Indian Ocean and western north Pacific, and analyse them as case studies to determine the mechanisms leading to the different responses. Our results indicate that several aspects of a region’s mean-state, including moisture content, sea surface temperature and circulation, play a role in local feedbacks that determine the response to increased entrainment and detrainment.

The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions

Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especially on the lead-time-dependent bias tendency. A “toy” model of a prediction system is initially developed and used to show that there are several distinct contributions to bias tendency. Contributions from sampling of internal variability and a start-time-dependent forcing bias can be estimated and removed to obtain a much improved estimate of the true bias tendency, which can provide information about errors in the underlying model and/or errors in the specification of forcings. It is argued that the true bias tendency, not the total bias tendency, should be used to adjust decadal forecasts. The methods developed are applied to decadal hindcasts of global mean temperature made using the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), climate model, and it is found that this model exhibits a small positive bias tendency in the ensemble mean. When considering different model versions, it is shown that the true bias tendency is very highly correlated with both the transient climate response (TCR) and non–greenhouse gas forcing trends, and can therefore be used to obtain observationally constrained estimates of these relevant physical quantities.

Transmission of wireless power by magnetic resonance

The work involves investigation of a type of wireless power system wherein its analysis will yield the construction of a prototype modeled as a singular technological artifact. It is through exploration of the artifact that forms the intellectual basis for not only its prototypical forms, but suggestive of variant forms not yet discovered. Through the process it is greatly clarified the role of the artifact, its most suitable application given the constraints on the delivery problem, and optimization strategies to improve it. In order to improve maturity and contribute to a body of knowledge, this document proposes research utilizing mid-field region, efficient inductive-transfer for the purposes of removing wired connections and electrical contacts. While the description seems enough to state the purpose of this work, it does not convey the compromises of having to redraw the lines of demarcation between near and far-field in the traditional method of broadcasting. Two striking scenarios are addressed in this thesis: Firstly, the mathematical explanation of wireless power is due to J.C. Maxwell's original equations, secondly, the behavior of wireless power in the circuit is due to Joseph Larmor's fundamental works on the dynamics of the field concept. A model of propagation will be presented which matches observations in experiments. A modified model of the dipole will be presented to address the phenomena observed in the theory and experiments. Two distinct sets of experiments will test the concept of single and two coupled-modes. In a more esoteric context of the zero and first-order magnetic field, the suggestion of a third coupled-mode is presented. Through the remaking of wireless power in this context, it is the intention of the author to show the reader that those things lost to history, bound to a path of complete obscurity, are once again innovative and useful ideas.

Improving transmission reliability of low-power medium access control protocols using average diversity combining

Embedded computer systems equipped with wireless communication transceivers are nowadays used in a vast number of application scenarios. Energy consumption is important in many of these scenarios, as systems are battery operated and long maintenance-free operation is required. To achieve this goal, embedded systems employ low-power communication transceivers and protocols. However, currently used protocols cannot operate efficiently when communication channels are highly erroneous. In this study, we show how average diversity combining (ADC) can be used in state-of-the-art low-power communication protocols. This novel approach improves transmission reliability and in consequence energy consumption and transmission latency in the presence of erroneous channels. Using a testbed, we show that highly erroneous channels are indeed a common occurrence in situations, where low-power systems are used and we demonstrate that ADC improves low-power communication dramatically.

Cashew cultivation, access to land and food security in Brong-Ahafo Region, Ghana: Preventing the intergenerational transmission of poverty

This research aimed to investigate the implications of changing agricultural land use from food production towards increased cashew cultivation for food security and poverty alleviation in Jaman North District, Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana. Based on qualitative, participatory research with a total of 60 participants, the research found that increased cashew production had led to improvements in living standards for many farmers and their children over recent years. Global demand for cashew is projected to continue to grow rapidly in the immediate future and cashew-growing areas of Ghana are well placed to respond to this demand. Cashew farmers however were subject to price fluctuations in the value of Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN) due to unequal power relations with intermediaries and export buyer companies and global markets, in addition to other vulnerabilities that constrained the quality and quantity of cashew and food crops they could produce. The expansion of cashew plantations was leading to pressure on the remaining family lands available for food crop production, which community members feared could potentially compromise the food security of rural communities and the land inheritance of future generations.