Type-1 error inflation in the traditional by-participant analysis to metamemory accuracy: a generalized mixed-effects model perspective

In order to examine metacognitive accuracy (i.e., the relationship between metacognitive judgment and memory performance), researchers often rely on by-participant analysis, where metacognitive accuracy (e.g., resolution, as measured by the gamma coefficient or signal detection measures) is computed for each participant and the computed values are entered into group-level statistical tests such as the t-test. In the current work, we argue that the by-participant analysis, regardless of the accuracy measurements used, would produce a substantial inflation of Type-1 error rates, when a random item effect is present. A mixed-effects model is proposed as a way to effectively address the issue, and our simulation studies examining Type-1 error rates indeed showed superior performance of mixed-effects model analysis as compared to the conventional by-participant analysis. We also present real data applications to illustrate further strengths of mixed-effects model analysis. Our findings imply that caution is needed when using the by-participant analysis, and recommend the mixed-effects model analysis.

Efficient group communication for large-scale parallel clustering

Global communication requirements and load imbalance of some parallel data mining algorithms are the major obstacles to exploit the computational power of large-scale systems. This work investigates how non-uniform data distributions can be exploited to remove the global communication requirement and to reduce the communication cost in iterative parallel data mining algorithms. In particular, the analysis focuses on one of the most influential and popular data mining methods, the k-means algorithm for cluster analysis. The straightforward parallel formulation of the k-means algorithm requires a global reduction operation at each iteration step, which hinders its scalability. This work studies a different parallel formulation of the algorithm where the requirement of global communication can be relaxed while still providing the exact solution of the centralised k-means algorithm. The proposed approach exploits a non-uniform data distribution which can be either found in real world distributed applications or can be induced by means of multi-dimensional binary search trees. The approach can also be extended to accommodate an approximation error which allows a further reduction of the communication costs.

Analysis of functional networks involved in motor execution and motor imagery using combined hierarchical clustering analysis and independent component analysis

Cognitive experiments involving motor execution (ME) and motor imagery (MI) have been intensively studied using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). However, the functional networks of a multitask paradigm which include ME and MI were not widely explored. In this article, we aimed to investigate the functional networks involved in MI and ME using a method combining the hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) and the independent component analysis (ICA). Ten right-handed subjects were recruited to participate a multitask experiment with conditions such as visual cue, MI, ME and rest. The results showed that four activation clusters were found including parts of the visual network, ME network, the MI network and parts of the resting state network. Furthermore, the integration among these functional networks was also revealed. The findings further demonstrated that the combined HCA with ICA approach was an effective method to analyze the fMRI data of multitasks.

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Rerum cognoscere causas: part I - How do the ideas of system dynamics relate to traditional social theories and the voluntarism/determinism debate?

This is the first half of a two-part paper which deals with the social theoretic assumptions underlying system dynamics. The motivation is that clarification in this area can help mainstream social scientists to understand how our field relates to their literature, methods and concerns. Part I has two main sections. The aim of the first is to answer the question: How do the ideas of system dynamics relate to traditional social theories? The theoretic assumptions of the field are seldom explicit but rather are implicit in its practice. The range of system dynamics practice is therefore considered and related to a framework - widely used in both operational research (OR) and systems science - that organises the assumptions behind traditional social theoretic paradigms. Distinct and surprisingly varied groupings of practice are identified, making it difficult to place system dynamics in any one paradigm with any certainty. The difficulties of establishing a social theoretic home for system dynamics are exemplified in the second main section. This is done by considering the question: Is system dynamics deterministic? An analysis shows that attempts to relate system dynamics to strict notions of voluntarism or determinism quickly indicate that the field does not fit with either pole of this dichotomous, and strictly paradigmatic, view. Part I therefore concludes that definitively placing system dynamics with respect to traditional social theories is highly problematic. The scene is therefore set for Part II of the paper, which proposes an innovative and potentially fruitful resolution to this problem.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Dimensionality reduction assisted tensor clustering

This paper is concerned with tensor clustering with the assistance of dimensionality reduction approaches. A class of formulation for tensor clustering is introduced based on tensor Tucker decomposition models. In this formulation, an extra tensor mode is formed by a collection of tensors of the same dimensions and then used to assist a Tucker decomposition in order to achieve data dimensionality reduction. We design two types of clustering models for the tensors: PCA Tensor Clustering model and Non-negative Tensor Clustering model, by utilizing different regularizations. The tensor clustering can thus be solved by the optimization method based on the alternative coordinate scheme. Interestingly, our experiments show that the proposed models yield comparable or even better performance compared to most recent clustering algorithms based on matrix factorization.

The BioDICE Taverna plugin for clustering and visualization of biological data: a workflow for molecular compounds exploration

Background: In many experimental pipelines, clustering of multidimensional biological datasets is used to detect hidden structures in unlabelled input data. Taverna is a popular workflow management system that is used to design and execute scientific workflows and aid in silico experimentation. The availability of fast unsupervised methods for clustering and visualization in the Taverna platform is important to support a data-driven scientific discovery in complex and explorative bioinformatics applications. Results: This work presents a Taverna plugin, the Biological Data Interactive Clustering Explorer (BioDICE), that performs clustering of high-dimensional biological data and provides a nonlinear, topology preserving projection for the visualization of the input data and their similarities. The core algorithm in the BioDICE plugin is Fast Learning Self Organizing Map (FLSOM), which is an improved variant of the Self Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm. The plugin generates an interactive 2D map that allows the visual exploration of multidimensional data and the identification of groups of similar objects. The effectiveness of the plugin is demonstrated on a case study related to chemical compounds. Conclusions: The number and variety of available tools and its extensibility have made Taverna a popular choice for the development of scientific data workflows. This work presents a novel plugin, BioDICE, which adds a data-driven knowledge discovery component to Taverna. BioDICE provides an effective and powerful clustering tool, which can be adopted for the explorative analysis of biological datasets.

Traditional medicine use by cancer patients in Thailand

Ethnobotanical relevance Cancer patients commonly use traditional medicines (TM) and in Thailand these are popular for both self-medication and as prescribed by TM practitioners, and are rarely monitored. A study was conducted at Wat Khampramong, a Thai Buddhist temple herbal medicine hospice, to document some of these practices as well as the hospice regime. Materials and methods Cancer patients (n=286) were surveyed shortly after admission as to which TMs they had previously taken and perceptions of effects experienced. They were also asked to describe their current symptoms. Treatment at the hospice is built upon an 11-herb anti-cancer formula, yod-ya-mareng, prescribed for all patients, and ideally, its effects would have been evaluated. However other herbal medicines and holistic practices are integral to the regime, so instead we attempted to assess the value of the patients׳ stay at the hospice by measuring any change in symptom burden, as they perceived it. Surviving patients (n=270) were therefore asked to describe their symptoms again just before leaving. Results 42% of patients (120/286; 95% CI 36.4%, 47.8%) had used herbal medicines before their arrival, with 31.7% (38/120; 95% CI 24%, 40.4%) using several at once. Mixed effects were reported for these products. After taking the herbal regime at Khampramong, 77% (208/270 95% CI; 71.7%, 81.7%) reported benefit, and a comparison of the incidence of the most common (pain, dyspepsia, abdominal or visceral pain, insomnia, fatigue) showed statistical significance (χ2 57.1, df 7, p<0.001). Conclusions A wide range of TMs is taken by cancer patients in Thailand and considered to provide more benefit than harm, and this perception extends to the temple regime. Patients reported a significant reduction in symptoms after staying at Khampramong, indicating an improvement in quality of life, the aim of hospices everywhere. Based on this evidence, it is not possible to justify the use of TM for cancer in general, but this study suggests that further research is warranted. The uncontrolled use of TMs, many of which are uncharacterised, raises concerns, and this work also highlights the fact that validated, robust methods of assessing holistic medical regimes are urgently needed.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations

This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.

What drives ICT clustering in European Cities?

ICT clusters have attracted much attention because of their rapid growth and their value for other economic activities. Using a nested multi-level model, we examine how conditions at the country level and at the city level affect ICT clustering activity in 227 cities across 22 European countries. We test for the influence of three country regulations (starting a business, registering property, enforcing contracts) and two city conditions (proximity to university, network density) on ICT clustering. We consider heterogeneity within the sector and study two types of ICT activities: ICT product firms and ICT content firms. Our results indicate that country conditions and city conditions each have idiosyncratic implications for ICT clustering, and further, that these can vary by activities in ICT products or ICT content manufacturing.

On L2 Clustering and Resetting the Null Subject Parameter in L2 Spanish: Implications and Observations.

In this article, along with others, we take the position that the Null-Subject Parameter (NSP) (Chomsky 1981; Rizzi 1982) cluster of properties is narrower in scope than some originally contended. We test for the resetting of the NSP by English L2 learners of Spanish at the intermediate level, including poverty-of-the stimulus knowledge of the Overt Pronoun Constraint (Montalbetti 1984). Our participants are tested before and after five months' residency in Spain in an effort to see if increased amounts of native exposure are particularly beneficial for parameter resetting. Although we demonstrate NSP resetting for some of the L2 learners, our data essentially demonstrate that even with the advent of time/exposure to native input, there is no immediate gainful effect for NSP resetting.

Syk and Src family kinases regulate C-type lectin receptor 2 (CLEC-2)-mediated clustering of podoplanin and platelet adhesion to lymphatic endothelial cells

The interaction of C-type lectin receptor 2 (CLEC-2) on platelets with Podoplanin on lymphatic endothelial cells initiates platelet signaling events that are necessary for prevention of blood-lymph mixing during development. In the present study, we show that CLEC-2 signaling via Src family and Syk tyrosine kinases promotes platelet adhesion to primary mouse lymphatic endothelial cells at low shear. Using supported lipid bilayers containing mobile Podoplanin, we further show that activation of Src and Syk in platelets promotes clustering of CLEC-2 and Podoplanin. Clusters of CLEC-2-bound Podoplanin migrate rapidly to the center of the platelet to form a single structure. Fluorescence lifetime imaging demonstrates that molecules within these clusters are within 10 nm of one another and that the clusters are disrupted by inhibition of Src and Syk family kinases. CLEC-2 clusters are also seen in platelets adhered to immobilized Podoplanin using direct stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy. These findings provide mechanistic insight by which CLEC-2 signaling promotes adhesion to Podoplanin and regulation of Podoplanin signaling, thereby contributing to lymphatic vasculature development.

Analysis and clustering of residential customers energy behavioral demand using smart meter data

Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.