The economic theory of international supply chains: a systems view

This paper offers an integrated analysis of out-sourcing, off-shoring and foreign direct investment within a systems view of international business. This view takes the supply chain rather than the firm as the basic unit of analysis. It argues that competition in the global economy selects supply chains that maximise the joint profit of all the firms in the chain. The systems view is compared with the firm-centred view commonly used in strategy literature. The paper shows that a firm’s strategy must be embedded within an efficient supply chain strategy, and that this strategy must be negotiated with, rather than imposed upon, other firms. The paper analyses the conditions under which various supply chain strategies - and by implication various firm-level strategies - are efficient. Only by adopting a systems view of supply chains is it possible to determine which firm-level strategies will succeed in a volatile global economy.

Kinematical analysis of redundant drive wire mechanisms with velocity constraint

In this paper, we propose a new velocity constraint type for Redundant Drive Wire Mechanisms. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the proposed velocity constraint module can fix the orientation of the movable part and to use the kinematical analysis method to obtain the moving direction of the movable part. First, we discuss the necessity of using this velocity constraint type and the possible applications of the proposed mechanism. Second, we derive the basic equations of a wire mechanism with this constraint type. Next, we present a method of motion analysis on active and passive constraint spaces, which is used to find the moving direction of a movable part. Finally, we apply the above analysis method on a wire mechanism with a velocity constraint module and on a wire mechanism with four double actuator modules. By evaluating the results, we prove the validity of the proposed constraint type.

Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

Spectral theory of some non-selfadjoint linear differential operators

We give a characterisation of the spectral properties of linear differential operators with constant coefficients, acting on functions defined on a bounded interval, and determined by general linear boundary conditions. The boundary conditions may be such that the resulting operator is not selfadjoint. We associate the spectral properties of such an operator $S$ with the properties of the solution of a corresponding boundary value problem for the partial differential equation $\partial_t q \pm iSq=0$. Namely, we are able to establish an explicit correspondence between the properties of the family of eigenfunctions of the operator, and in particular whether this family is a basis, and the existence and properties of the unique solution of the associated boundary value problem. When such a unique solution exists, we consider its representation as a complex contour integral that is obtained using a transform method recently proposed by Fokas and one of the authors. The analyticity properties of the integrand in this representation are crucial for studying the spectral theory of the associated operator.

A unified theory of balance in the extratropics

Many physical systems exhibit dynamics with vastly different time scales. Often the different motions interact only weakly and the slow dynamics is naturally constrained to a subspace of phase space, in the vicinity of a slow manifold. In geophysical fluid dynamics this reduction in phase space is called balance. Classically, balance is understood by way of the Rossby number R or the Froude number F; either R ≪ 1 or F ≪ 1. We examined the shallow-water equations and Boussinesq equations on an f -plane and determined a dimensionless parameter _, small values of which imply a time-scale separation. In terms of R and F, ∈= RF/√(R^2+R^2 ) We then developed a unified theory of (extratropical) balance based on _ that includes all cases of small R and/or small F. The leading-order systems are ensured to be Hamiltonian and turn out to be governed by the quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity equation. However, the height field is not necessarily in geostrophic balance, so the leading-order dynamics are more general than in quasi-geostrophy. Thus the quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity equation (as distinct from the quasi-geostrophic dynamics) is valid more generally than its traditional derivation would suggest. In the case of the Boussinesq equations, we have found that balanced dynamics generally implies hydrostatic balance without any assumption on the aspect ratio; only when the Froude number is not small and it is the Rossby number that guarantees a timescale separation must we impose the requirement of a small aspect ratio to ensure hydrostatic balance.

Self-organized 40Hz synchronization in a physiological theory of EEG

We present evidence that large-scale spatial coherence of 40 Hz oscillations can emerge dynamically in a cortical mean field theory. The simulated synchronization time scale is about 150 ms, which compares well with experimental data on large-scale integration during cognitive tasks. The same model has previously provided consistent descriptions of the human EEG at rest, with tranquilizers, under anesthesia, and during anesthetic-induced epileptic seizures. The emergence of coherent gamma band activity is brought about by changing just one physiological parameter until cortex becomes marginally unstable for a small range of wavelengths. This suggests for future study a model of dynamic computation at the edge of cortical stability.

On the stability and convergence of the finite section method for integral equation formulations of rough surface scattering

We consider the Dirichlet and Robin boundary value problems for the Helmholtz equation in a non-locally perturbed half-plane, modelling time harmonic acoustic scattering of an incident field by, respectively, sound-soft and impedance infinite rough surfaces.Recently proposed novel boundary integral equation formulations of these problems are discussed. It is usual in practical computations to truncate the infinite rough surface, solving a boundary integral equation on a finite section of the boundary, of length 2A, say. In the case of surfaces of small amplitude and slope we prove the stability and convergence as A→∞ of this approximation procedure. For surfaces of arbitrarily large amplitude and/or surface slope we prove stability and convergence of a modified finite section procedure in which the truncated boundary is ‘flattened’ in finite neighbourhoods of its two endpoints. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A unified theory of available potential energy

Traditional derivations of available potential energy, in a variety of contexts, involve combining some form of mass conservation together with energy conservation. This raises the questions of why such constructions are required in the first place, and whether there is some general method of deriving the available potential energy for an arbitrary fluid system. By appealing to the underlying Hamiltonian structure of geophysical fluid dynamics, it becomes clear why energy conservation is not enough, and why other conservation laws such as mass conservation need to be incorporated in order to construct an invariant, known as the pseudoenergy, that is a positive‐definite functional of disturbance quantities. The available potential energy is just the non‐kinetic part of the pseudoenergy, the construction of which follows a well defined algorithm. Two notable features of the available potential energy defined thereby are first, that it is a locally defined quantity, and second, that it is inherently definable at finite amplitude (though one may of course always take the small‐amplitude limit if this is appropriate). The general theory is made concrete by systematic derivations of available potential energy in a number of different contexts. All the well known expressions are recovered, and some new expressions are obtained. The possibility of generalizing the concept of available potential energy to dynamically stable basic flows (as opposed to statically stable basic states) is also discussed.

Content validation for level of use of feature rich systems: a Delphi study of electronic medical records systems

Introduction. Feature usage is a pre-requisite to realising the benefits of investments in feature rich systems. We propose that conceptualising the dependent variable 'system use' as 'level of use' and specifying it as a formative construct has greater value for measuring the post-adoption use of feature rich systems. We then validate the content of the construct as a first step in developing a research instrument to measure it. The context of our study is the post-adoption use of electronic medical records (EMR) by primary care physicians. Method. Initially, a literature review of the empirical context defines the scope based on prior studies. Having identified core features from the literature, they are further refined with the help of experts in a consensus seeking process that follows the Delphi technique. Results.The methodology was successfully applied to EMRs, which were selected as an example of feature rich systems. A review of EMR usage and regulatory standards provided the feature input for the first round of the Delphi process. A panel of experts then reached consensus after four rounds, identifying ten task-based features that would be indicators of level of use. Conclusions. To study why some users deploy more advanced features than others, theories of post-adoption require a rich formative dependent variable that measures level of use. We have demonstrated that a context sensitive literature review followed by refinement through a consensus seeking process is a suitable methodology to validate the content of this dependent variable. This is the first step of instrument development prior to statistical confirmation with a larger sample.

Another Waltz? Methodological rhetoric and practice in theory of international politics

Although Theory of International Politics is a standard-bearer for explanatory theory in international relations (IR), Waltz’s methodology has been subject to numerous quite disparate analyses. One reason why it has proved hard to pin down is that too little attention has been paid to how, in practice, Waltz approaches real-world problems. Despite his neopositivist rhetoric, Waltz applies neorealism in a notably loose, even indeterminate, fashion. There is therefore a disjunction between what he says and what he does. This is partly explained by his unsatisfactory attempt to reconcile his avowed neopositivism with his belief that international politics is characterized by organized complexity. The inconsistencies thus created also help to make sense of why competing interpretations of his methodology have emerged. Some aspects of his work do point beyond these particular methodological travails in ways that will continue to be of interest to IR theorists, but its most enduring methodological lesson may be that rhetoric and practice do not necessarily fit harmoniously together.

A multimodel assessment of the influence of regional anthropogenic emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean ± one standard deviation) is  ±3.5 ±0.8,  ±4.0 ±1.7, and 29.5 ±18.1mWm ±2 per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 ±5% to 31 ±9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 ±9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 ±18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

Reduced-order modeling of light transport in tissue for real-time monitoring of brain hemodynamics using diffuse optical tomography

This paper proposes a new reconstruction method for diffuse optical tomography using reduced-order models of light transport in tissue. The models, which directly map optical tissue parameters to optical flux measurements at the detector locations, are derived based on data generated by numerical simulation of a reference model. The reconstruction algorithm based on the reduced-order models is a few orders of magnitude faster than the one based on a finite element approximation on a fine mesh incorporating a priori anatomical information acquired by magnetic resonance imaging. We demonstrate the accuracy and speed of the approach using a phantom experiment and through numerical simulation of brain activation in a rat's head. The applicability of the approach for real-time monitoring of brain hemodynamics is demonstrated through a hypercapnic experiment. We show that our results agree with the expected physiological changes and with results of a similar experimental study. However, by using our approach, a three-dimensional tomographic reconstruction can be performed in ∼3  s per time point instead of the 1 to 2 h it takes when using the conventional finite element modeling approach