Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

Spectral theory of some non-selfadjoint linear differential operators

We give a characterisation of the spectral properties of linear differential operators with constant coefficients, acting on functions defined on a bounded interval, and determined by general linear boundary conditions. The boundary conditions may be such that the resulting operator is not selfadjoint. We associate the spectral properties of such an operator $S$ with the properties of the solution of a corresponding boundary value problem for the partial differential equation $\partial_t q \pm iSq=0$. Namely, we are able to establish an explicit correspondence between the properties of the family of eigenfunctions of the operator, and in particular whether this family is a basis, and the existence and properties of the unique solution of the associated boundary value problem. When such a unique solution exists, we consider its representation as a complex contour integral that is obtained using a transform method recently proposed by Fokas and one of the authors. The analyticity properties of the integrand in this representation are crucial for studying the spectral theory of the associated operator.

A unified theory of balance in the extratropics

Many physical systems exhibit dynamics with vastly different time scales. Often the different motions interact only weakly and the slow dynamics is naturally constrained to a subspace of phase space, in the vicinity of a slow manifold. In geophysical fluid dynamics this reduction in phase space is called balance. Classically, balance is understood by way of the Rossby number R or the Froude number F; either R ≪ 1 or F ≪ 1. We examined the shallow-water equations and Boussinesq equations on an f -plane and determined a dimensionless parameter _, small values of which imply a time-scale separation. In terms of R and F, ∈= RF/√(R^2+R^2 ) We then developed a unified theory of (extratropical) balance based on _ that includes all cases of small R and/or small F. The leading-order systems are ensured to be Hamiltonian and turn out to be governed by the quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity equation. However, the height field is not necessarily in geostrophic balance, so the leading-order dynamics are more general than in quasi-geostrophy. Thus the quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity equation (as distinct from the quasi-geostrophic dynamics) is valid more generally than its traditional derivation would suggest. In the case of the Boussinesq equations, we have found that balanced dynamics generally implies hydrostatic balance without any assumption on the aspect ratio; only when the Froude number is not small and it is the Rossby number that guarantees a timescale separation must we impose the requirement of a small aspect ratio to ensure hydrostatic balance.

Self-organized 40Hz synchronization in a physiological theory of EEG

We present evidence that large-scale spatial coherence of 40 Hz oscillations can emerge dynamically in a cortical mean field theory. The simulated synchronization time scale is about 150 ms, which compares well with experimental data on large-scale integration during cognitive tasks. The same model has previously provided consistent descriptions of the human EEG at rest, with tranquilizers, under anesthesia, and during anesthetic-induced epileptic seizures. The emergence of coherent gamma band activity is brought about by changing just one physiological parameter until cortex becomes marginally unstable for a small range of wavelengths. This suggests for future study a model of dynamic computation at the edge of cortical stability.

A unified theory of available potential energy

Traditional derivations of available potential energy, in a variety of contexts, involve combining some form of mass conservation together with energy conservation. This raises the questions of why such constructions are required in the first place, and whether there is some general method of deriving the available potential energy for an arbitrary fluid system. By appealing to the underlying Hamiltonian structure of geophysical fluid dynamics, it becomes clear why energy conservation is not enough, and why other conservation laws such as mass conservation need to be incorporated in order to construct an invariant, known as the pseudoenergy, that is a positive‐definite functional of disturbance quantities. The available potential energy is just the non‐kinetic part of the pseudoenergy, the construction of which follows a well defined algorithm. Two notable features of the available potential energy defined thereby are first, that it is a locally defined quantity, and second, that it is inherently definable at finite amplitude (though one may of course always take the small‐amplitude limit if this is appropriate). The general theory is made concrete by systematic derivations of available potential energy in a number of different contexts. All the well known expressions are recovered, and some new expressions are obtained. The possibility of generalizing the concept of available potential energy to dynamically stable basic flows (as opposed to statically stable basic states) is also discussed.

Another Waltz? Methodological rhetoric and practice in theory of international politics

Although Theory of International Politics is a standard-bearer for explanatory theory in international relations (IR), Waltz’s methodology has been subject to numerous quite disparate analyses. One reason why it has proved hard to pin down is that too little attention has been paid to how, in practice, Waltz approaches real-world problems. Despite his neopositivist rhetoric, Waltz applies neorealism in a notably loose, even indeterminate, fashion. There is therefore a disjunction between what he says and what he does. This is partly explained by his unsatisfactory attempt to reconcile his avowed neopositivism with his belief that international politics is characterized by organized complexity. The inconsistencies thus created also help to make sense of why competing interpretations of his methodology have emerged. Some aspects of his work do point beyond these particular methodological travails in ways that will continue to be of interest to IR theorists, but its most enduring methodological lesson may be that rhetoric and practice do not necessarily fit harmoniously together.

Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

Workaround motivation model (WAMM): an adaptation of the Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour

The study of workarounds (WA) has increased in importance due to their impact on patient safety and efficiency. However, there are no adequate theories to explain the motivation to create and use a workaround in a healthcare sitting. Although theories of technology acceptance help to understand the reasons to accept or reject technology, they fail to explain drivers for alternatives. Also workarounds involve creators and performers that have different motivations. Models such as Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) or Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) can help to explain the role of workaround users, but lack explanation of workaround creators’ dynamics. Our aim is to develop a theoretical foundation to explain workaround motivation behaviour models with norms that relate to sanctions to provide an integrated Workaround Motivation Model; WAMM. The development of WAMM model is explained in this paper based on workaround cases as part of further research to establish the model.

Towards a general theory of extremes for observables of chaotic dynamical systems

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of the attractor of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the classical generalised Pareto distribution and derive explicit expressions for the scaling and the shape parameter. In particular, we derive that the shape parameter does not depend on the cho- sen observables, but only on the partial dimensions of the invariant measure on the stable, unstable, and neutral manifolds. The shape parameter is negative and is close to zero when high-dimensional systems are considered. This result agrees with what was derived recently using the generalized extreme value approach. Combining the results obtained using such physical observables and the properties of the extremes of distance observables, it is possible to derive estimates of the partial dimensions of the attractor along the stable and the unstable directions of the flow. Moreover, by writing the shape parameter in terms of moments of the extremes of the considered observable and by using linear response theory, we relate the sensitivity to perturbations of the shape parameter to the sensitivity of the moments, of the partial dimensions, and of the Kaplan–Yorke dimension of the attractor. Preliminary numer- ical investigations provide encouraging results on the applicability of the theory presented here. The results presented here do not apply for all combinations of Axiom A systems and observables, but the breakdown seems to be related to very special geometrical configurations.

The agile governance of business IT projects

Organisations typically define and execute their selected strategy by developing and managing a portfolio of projects. The governance of this portfolio has proved to be a major challenge, particularly for large organisations. Executives and managers face even greater pressures when the nature of the strategic landscape is uncertain. This paper explores approaches for dealing with different levels of certainty in business IT projects and provides a contingent governance framework. Historically business IT projects have relied on a structured sequential approach, also referred to as a waterfall method. There is a distinction between the development stages of a solution and the management stages of a project that delivers the solution although these are often integrated in a business IT systems project. Prior research has demonstrated that the level of certainty varies between development projects. There can be uncertainty on what needs to be developed and also on how this solution should be developed. The move to agile development and management reflects a greater level of uncertainty often on both dimensions and this has led the adoption of more iterative approaches. What has been less well researched is the impact of uncertainty on the governance of the change portfolio and the corresponding implications for business executives. This paper poses this research question and proposes a govemance framework to address these aspects. The governance framework has been reviewed in the context of a major anonymous organisation, FinOrg. Findings are reported in this paper with a focus on the need to apply different approaches. In particular, the governance of uncertain business change is contrasted with the management approach for defined IT projects. Practical outputs from the paper include a consideration of some innovative approaches that can be used by executives. It also investigates the role of the business change portfolio group in evaluating and executing the appropriate level of governance. These results lead to recommendations for executives and also proposed further research.

GM food purchase intentions: linking the theory of planned behaviour with consumer trust and stated choice

After the “European” experience of BSE and further food safety crises consumer trust is playing an increasingly important role in political and marketing decision making. This also relates to the area of consumer acceptance of GM food. This paper integrates consumer trust with the theory of planned behavior and a stated choice model to gain a more complete picture of consumer decision making. Preliminary results indicate that when GM products offer practical benefits to consumers acceptance may increase considerably. Furthermore, both trust and perceived benefits contribute significantly to explaining the level of acceptance.