Simulations of angular momentum evolution in wind-fed CV precursors

It is thought that the secondary stars in cataclysmic variables (CVs) may undergo a period of mass loss in the form of a wind during the evolution of the system (Mullan et al. 1992). This wind is thought to magnetically brake the secondary star with a time-scale ~ 10^8 yr (e.g. van Paradijs 1986). When the secondary’s spin has been brought close to synchronism with the orbit it is possible for tidal torques to lock the secondary in synchronous rotation.

Bronze Age human ecodynamics in the Humber estuary

For much of lowland Britain during the Holocene one important factor in determining environmental change was sea level fluctuation. A net rise of circa 20 m, within an oscillating short term picture of transgression and regression, caused significant short to medium term challenges for people exploiting those resources. During transgression phases estuarine creek systems extended landwards, and during the final transgression phase, widespread sedimentation took place, allowing for the development of saltmarshes on tidal flats. In later prehistory the exploitation of lowlands and estuarine wetlands was predominantly for fishing, waterfowling and pastoral use, and this paper explores the human ecodynamics of the intertidal zone in the Humber estuary during the Bronze Age. Results of the Humber Wetlands Project's recent estuarine survey, will be used to argue that following a marine transgression circa 1500 cal BC, the foreshore was fully exploited in terms of food procurement. Furthermore the construction of hurdle trackways allowed access across expanding tidal creek systems to be maintained. This not only shows continued use of the most productive environments, and provides evidence for selective use of woodland, but also the continued exploitation of the intertidal zone may have played a role in the evolution of social and political structures in this area during the Bronze Age.

The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

Subjective evaluation of experimental dyspnoea: effects of isocapnia and repeated exposure

Resistive respiratory loading is an established stimulus for the induction of experimental dyspnoea. In comparison to unloaded breathing, resistive loaded breathing alters end-tidal CO2 (PETCO2), which has independent physiological effects (e.g. upon cerebral blood flow). We investigated the subjective effects of resistive loaded breathing with stabilized PETCO2 (isocapnia) during manual control of inspired gases on varying baseline levels of mild hypercapnia increased PETCO2). Furthermore, to investigate whether perceptual habituation to dyspnoea stimuli occurs, the study was repeated over four experimental sessions. Isocapnic hypercapnia did not affect dyspnoea unpleasantness during resistive loading. A post hoc analysis revealed a small increase of respiratory unpleasantness during unloaded breathing at +0.6 kPa, the level that reliably induced isocapnia. We didnot observe perceptual habituation over the four sessions. We conclude that isocapnic respiratory loading allows stable induction of respiratory unpleasantness, making it a good stimulus for multi-session studies of dyspnoea.

A new three-locus model for rootstock-induced dwarfing in apple revealed by genetic mapping of root bark percentage

Rootstock-induced dwarfing of apple scions revolutionized global apple production during the twentieth century, leading to the development of modern intensive orchards. A high root bark percentage (the percentage of the whole root area constituted by root cortex) has previously been associated with rootstock induced dwarfing in apple. In this study, the root bark percentage was measured in a full-sib family of ungrafted apple rootstocks and found to be under the control of three loci. Two QTL for root bark percentage were found to co-localise to the same genomic regions on chromosome 5 and chromosome 11 previously identified as controlling dwarfing, Dw1 and Dw2, respectively. A third QTL was identified on chromosome 13 in a region that has not been previously associated with dwarfing. The development of closely linked 3 Sequence-tagged site STS markers improved the resolution of allelic classes thereby allowing the detection of dominance and epistatic interactions between loci, with high root bark percentage only occurring in specific allelic combinations. In addition, we report a significant negative correlation between root bark percentage and stem diameter (an indicator of tree vigour), measured on a clonally propagated grafted subset of the mapping population. The demonstrated link between root bark percentage and rootstock-induced dwarfing of the scion leads us to propose a three-locus model that is able to explain levels of dwarfing from the dwarf ‘M.27’ to the semi-invigorating rootstock ‘M.116’. Moreover, we suggest that the QTL on chromosome 13 (Rb3) might be analogous to a third dwarfing QTL, Dw3 that has not previously been identified.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.