Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

How big is your neighbourhood? Spatial implications of market participation among Filipino smallholders

We present a procedure for estimating two quantities defining the spatial externality in discrete-choice commonly referred to as 'the neighbourhood effect'. One quantity, the propensity for neighbours to make the same decision, reflects traditional preoccupations; the other quantity, the magnitude of the neighbourhood itself, is novel. Because both quantities have fundamental bearing on the magnitude of the spatial externality, it is desirable to have a robust algorithm for their estimation. Using recent advances in Bayesian estimation and model comparison, we devise such an algorithm and illustrate its application to a sample of northern-Filipino smallholders. We determine that a significant, positive, neighbourhood effect exists; that, among the 12 geographical units comprising the sample, the neighbourhood spans a three-unit radius; and that policy prescriptions are significantly altered when calculations account for the spatial externality.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

Background: Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results: Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion: Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology.

Diversification of a large genus in a continental biodiversity hotspot: temporal and spatial origin of Muraltia (Polygalaceae) in the Cape of South Africa

Phylogenetic relationships in the largely South African genus Muraltia (Polygalaceae) are assessed based on DNA sequence data (nuclear ribosomal ITS, plastid atpB-rbcL spacer, trnL intron, and trnL-F spacer) for 73 of the 117 currently recognized species in the genus. The previously recognised subgenus Muraltia is monophyletic, but the South African endemic genus Nylandtia is embedded in Muraltia subgenus Psiloclada. Subgenus Muraltia is found to be sister to subgenus Psiloclada. Estimates show the beginning of diversification of the two subgenera in the early Miocene (Psiloclada, 19.3+/-3.4 Ma; Muraltia, 21.0+/-3.5 Ma) pre-dating the establishment of the Benguela current (intermittent in the middle to late Oligocene and markedly intensifying in the late Miocene), and summer-dry climate in the Cape region. However, the later increase in species numbers is contemporaneous with these climatic phenomena. Results of dispersal-vicariance analyses indicate that major clades in Muraltia diversified from the southwestern and northwestern Cape, where most of the species are found today.

Bayesian estimation of recent migration rates after a spatial expansion

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full-likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a two-dimensional stepping-stone model, using samples from either a single deme or multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced, which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex-linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred < 10,000 years ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.

Are the spatial patterns of weeds scale-invariant?

In previous empirical and modelling studies of rare species and weeds, evidence of fractal behaviour has been found. We propose that weeds in modern agricultural systems may be managed close to critical population dynamic thresholds, below which their rates of increase will be negative and where scale-invariance may be expected as a consequence. We collected detailed spatial data on five contrasting species over a period of three years in a primarily arable field. Counts in 20×20 cm contiguous quadrats, 225,000 in 1998 and 84,375 thereafter, could be re-structured into a wide range of larger quadrat sizes. These were analysed using three methods based on correlation sum, incidence and conditional incidence. We found non-trivial scale invariance for species occurring at low mean densities and where they were strongly aggregated. The fact that the scale-invariance was not found for widespread species occurring at higher densities suggests that the scaling in agricultural weed populations may, indeed, be related to critical phenomena.

Temporal and spatial variability of mobile fauna on a submarine cliff and boulder scree complex: a community in flux

The mobile component of a community inhabiting a submarine boulder scree/cliff was investigated at Lough Hyne, Ireland at dawn, midday, dusk and night over a 1-week period. Line transects (50 m) were placed in the infralittoral (6 m) and circumlittoral (18 m) zones and also the interface between these two zones (12 m). The dominant mobile fauna of this cliff consisted of echinoderms (6 species), crustaceans (10 species) and fish (23 species). A different component community was identified at each time/depth interval using Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) even though both species diversity (Shannon-Wiener indices) and richness (number of species) remained constant. These changes in community composition provided indirect evidence for migration by these mobile organisms. However, little evidence was found for migration between different zones with the exception of the several wrasse species. These species were observed to spend the daytime foraging in the deeper zone, but returned to the upper zone at night presumably for protection from predators. For the majority of species, migration was considered to occur to cryptic habitats such as holes and crevices. The number of organisms declined during the night, although crustacean numbers peaked, while fish and echinoderms were most abundant during day, possibly due to predator-prey interactions. This submarine community is in a state of flux, whereby, community characteristics, including trophic and energetic relationships, varied over small temporal (daily) and spatial (m) scales.

A case of four-coordinate silver(I) adopting a high energy planar geometry. Experiment and theory

The ligands PhL and MeL are obtained by condensing 2-formylpyridine with benzil dihydrazone and diacetyl dihydrazone, respectively, in 2: 1 molar proportion. With silver( I), PhL yields a double-stranded dinuclear cationic helicate 1 in which the metal is tetrahedral but MeL gives a cationic one-dimensional polymeric complex 2 where silver( I) is distorted square planar and the ligand backbone is nearly planar. In both complexes, metal: ligand ratio is 1: 1. Ab initio calculations on the ligands at the HF/6-31+G* level reveal that while PhL strongly prefers a helical conformation, MeL has a natural inclination to remain in a planar conformation. Density functional theory calculations on model silver( I) complexes show that formation of the linear polymer in the case of MeL is also an important factor in imposing the planar geometry of Ag(I) in 2.

Surface geometry of Cu{531}

We present a combined quantitative low-energy electron diffraction (LEED) and density-functional theory (DFT) study of the chiral Cu{531} surface. The surface shows large inward relaxations with respect to the bulk interlayer distance of the first two layers and a large expansion of the distance between the fourth and fifth layers. (The latter is the first layer having the same coordination as the Cu atoms in the bulk.) Additional calculations have been performed to study the likelihood of faceting by comparing surface energies of possible facet terminations. No overall significant reduction in energy with respect to planar {531} could be found for any of the tested combinations of facets, which is in agreement with the experimental findings.

The local adsorption geometry and electronic structure of alanine on Cu{110}

The adsorption of alanine on Cu {110} was studied by a combination of near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and density functional theory (DFT). Large chemical shifts in the C 1s, N 1s, and O 1s XP spectra were found between the alanine multilayer and the chemisorbed and pseudo-(3 x 2) alaninate layers. From C, N, and O K-shell NEXAFS spectra the tilt angles of the carboxylate group (approximate to 26 degrees in plane with respect to [1 (1) over bar0] and approximate to 45 degrees out of plane) and the C-N bond angle with respect to [1 (1) over bar0] could be determined for the pseudo-(3 x 2) overlayer. Using this information three adsorption geometries could be eliminated from five p(3 x 2) structures which lead to almost identical heats of adsorption in the DFT calculations between 1.40 and 1.47 eV/molecule. Due to the small energy difference between the remaining two structures it is not unlikely that these coexist on the surface at room temperature. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The adsorption geometry of sulphur on Ir{100}: a quantitative LEED study

A quantitative low energy electron diffraction (LEED) analysis has been performed for the p(2 x 2)-S and c(2 x 2)-S surface structures formed by exposing the (1 x 1) phase of Ir{100} to H2S at 750 K. S is found to adsorb on the fourfold hollow sites in both structures leading to Pendry R-factor values of 0.17 for the p(2 x 2)-S and 0.16 for the c(2 x 2)-S structures. The distances between S and the nearest and next-nearest Ir atoms were found to be similar in both structures: 2.36 +/- 0.01 angstrom and 3.33 +/- 0.01 angstrom, respectively. The buckling in the second substrate layer is consistent with other structural studies for S adsorption on fcc{100} transition metal surfaces: 0.09 angstrom for p(2 x 2)-S and 0.02 angstrom for c(2 x 2)-S structures. The (1 x 5) reconstruction, which is the most stable phase for clean Ir{100}, is completely lifted and a c(2 x 2)-S overlayer is formed after exposure to H,S at 300 K followed by annealing to 520 K. CO temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) experiments indicate that the major factor in the poisoning of Ir by S is site blocking. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Facile strategies for the synthesis and crystallization of linear trinuclear nickel(II)-Schiff base, complexes with carboxylate bridges: Tuning of coordination geometry and magnetic properties

Three new linear trinuclear nickel(II) complexes, [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OAc)(2)(H2O)(2)]center dot 4H(2)O (1) (OAc = acetate, CH3COO-), [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OBz)(2)] (2) (OBz=benzoate, PhCOO-) and [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OCn)(2)(CH3CN)(2)] (4) (OCn = cinnamate, PhCH=CHCOO-), H(2)salpen = tetradentate ligand, N,N'-bis(salicylidene)-1,3-pentanediamine have been synthesized and characterized structurally and magnetically. The choice of solvent for growing single crystal was made by inspecting the morphology of the initially obtained solids with the help of SEM study. The magnetic properties of a closely related complex, [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OPh)(2)(EtOH)] (3) (OPh = phenyl acetate, PhCH2COO-) whose structure and solution properties have been reported recently, has also been studied here. The structural analyses reveal that both phenoxo and carboxylate bridging are present in all the complexes and the three Ni(II) atoms remain in linear disposition. Although the Schiff base ligand and the syn-syn bridging bidentate mode of the carboxylate group remain the same in complexes 1-4, the change of alkyl/aryl group of the carboxylates brings about systematic variations between six- and five-coordination in the geometry of the terminal Ni(II) centres of the trinuclear units. The steric demand as well as hydrophobic nature of the alkyl/aryl group of the carboxylate is found to play a crucial role in the tuning of the geometry. Variable-temperature (2-300 K) magnetic susceptibility measurements show that complexes 1-4 are antiferromagnetically coupled (J = -3.2(1), -4.6(1). -3.2(1) and -2.8(1) cm(-1) in 1-4, respectively). Calculations of the zero-field splitting parameter indicate that the values of D for complexes 1-4 are in the high range (D = +9.1(2), +14.2(2), +9.8(2) and +8.6(1) cm(-1) for 1-4, respectively). The highest D value of +14.2(2) and +9.8(2) cm(-1) for complexes 2 and 3, respectively, are consistent with the pentacoordinated geometry of the two terminal nickel(II) ions in 2 and one terminal nickel(II) ion in 3. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.