Risk allocation in a public–private partnership: a case study of construction and operation of kindergartens in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, a transitional nation in Central Asia, the development of public–private partnerships (PPPs) is at its early stage and increasingly of strategic importance. This case study investigates risk allocation in an ongoing project: the construction and operation of 11 kindergartens in the city of Karaganda in the concession form for 14 years. Drawing on a conceptual framework of effective risk allocation, the study identifies principal PPP risks, provides a critical assessment of how and in what way each partner bears a certain risk, highlights the reasons underpinning risk allocation decisions and delineates the lessons learned. The findings show that the government has effectively transferred most risks to the private sector partner, whilst both partners share the demand risk of childcare services and the project default risk. The strong elements of risk allocation include clear assignment of parties’ responsibilities, streamlined financing schemes and incentives to complete the main project phases on time. However, risk allocation has missed an opportunity to create incentives for service quality improvements and take advantage of economies of scale. The most controversial element of risk allocation, as the study finds, is a revenue stream that an operator is supposed to receive from the provision of services unrelated to childcare, as neither partner is able to mitigate this revenue risk. The article concludes that in the kindergartens’ PPP, the government has achieved almost complete transfer of risks to the private sector partner. However, the costs of transfer are extensive government financial outlays that seriously compromise the PPP value for money.

Hot and cold IPO markets : the case of the stock exchange of Mauritius

The aim of this study is to assess the characteristics of the hot and cold IPO markets on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). The results show that the hot issues exhibit, on average, a greater degree of underpricing than the cold issues, although the hot issue phenomenon is not a significant driving force in explaining this short-run underpricing. The results are consistent with the predictions of the changing risk composition hypothesis in suggesting that firms going public during hot markets are on average relatively more risky. The findings also support the time adverse selection hypothesis in that the firms’ quality dispersion is statistically different between hot and cold markets. Finally, the study concludes that firms which go public during hot markets do not underperform those going public in cold markets over the longer term.

Reduced neural response to reward following 7 days treatment with the cannabinoid CB1 antagonist rimonabant in healthy volunteers

Reduced subjective experience of reward (anhedonia) is a key symptom of major depression. The anti-obesity drug and cannabinoid type 1 receptor (CB(1)) antagonist, rimonabant, is associated with significant rates of depression and anxiety in clinical use and was recently withdrawn from the market because of these adverse effects. Using a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) model of reward we hypothesized that rimonabant would impair reward processing. Twenty-two healthy participants were randomly allocated to receive rimonabant (20 mg), or placebo, for 7 d in a double-blind, parallel group design. We used fMRI to measure the neural response to rewarding (sight and/or flavour of chocolate) and aversive (sight of mouldy strawberries and/or an unpleasant strawberry taste) stimuli on the final day of drug treatment. Rimonabant reduced the neural response to chocolate stimuli in key reward areas such as the ventral striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex. Rimonabant also decreased neural responses to the aversive stimulus condition in the caudate nucleus and ventral striatum, but increased lateral orbitofrontal activations to the aversive sight and taste of strawberry condition. Our findings are the first to show that the anti-obesity drug rimonabant inhibits the neural processing of rewarding food stimuli in humans. This plausibly underlies its ability to promote weight loss, but may also indicate a mechanism for inducing anhedonia which could lead to the increased risk of depressive symptomatology seen in clinical use. fMRI may be a useful method of screening novel agents for unwanted effects on reward and associated clinical adverse reactions.

Assessing and monitoring impacts of genetically modified plants on agro-ecosystems: the approach of AMIGA project

The environmental impacts of genetically modified crops is still a controversial issue in Europe. The overall risk assessment framework has recently been reinforced by the European Food Safety Authority(EFSA) and its implementation requires harmonized and efficient methodologies. The EU-funded research project AMIGA − Assessing and monitoring Impacts of Genetically modified plants on Agro-ecosystems − aims to address this issue, by providing a framework that establishes protection goals and baselines for European agro-ecosystems, improves knowledge on the potential long term environmental effects of genetically modified (GM) plants, tests the efficacy of the EFSA Guidance Document for the Environmental Risk Assessment, explores new strategies for post market monitoring, and provides a systematic analysis of economic aspects of Genetically Modified crops cultivation in the EU. Research focuses on ecological studies in different EU regions, the sustainability of GM crops is estimated by analysing the functional components of the agro-ecosystems and specific experimental protocols are being developed for this scope.

Institutional pressures on financial services firms: the role of information systems in regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2008 led to new international regulatory controls for the governance, risk and compliance of financial services firms. Information systems play a critical role here as political, functional and social pressures may lead to the deinstitutionalization of existing structures, processes and practices. This research examines how an investment management system is introduced by a leading IT vendor across eight client sites in the post-crisis era. Using institutional theory, it examines changes in working practices occurring at the environmental and organizational levels and the ways in which technological interventions are used to apply disciplinary effects in order to prevent inappropriate behaviors. The results extend the constructs of deinstitutionalization and identify empirical predictors for the deinstitutionalization of compliance and trading practices within financial organizations.

Incorporating toxicokinetics into an individual-based model for more realistic pesticide exposure estimates: A case study of the wood mouse

The potential risk of agricultural pesticides to mammals typically depends on internal concentrations within individuals, and these are determined by the amount ingested and by absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). Pesticide residues ingested depend, amongst other things, on individual spatial choices which determine how much and when feeding sites and areas of pesticide application overlap, and can be calculated using individual-based models (IBMs). Internal concentrations can be calculated using toxicokinetic (TK) models, which are quantitative representations of ADME processes. Here we provide a population model for the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) in which TK submodels were incorporated into an IBM representation of individuals making choices about where to feed. This allows us to estimate the contribution of individual spatial choice and TK processes to risk. We compared the risk predicted by four IBMs: (i) “AllExposed-NonTK”: assuming no spatial choice so all mice have 100% exposure, no TK, (ii) “AllExposed-TK”: identical to (i) except that the TK processes are included where individuals vary because they have different temporal patterns of ingestion in the IBM, (iii) “Spatial-NonTK”: individual spatial choice, no TK, and (iv) “Spatial-TK”: individual spatial choice and with TK. The TK parameters for hypothetical pesticides used in this study were selected such that a conventional risk assessment would fail. Exposures were standardised using risk quotients (RQ; exposure divided by LD50 or LC50). We found that for the exposed sub-population including either spatial choice or TK reduced the RQ by 37–85%, and for the total population the reduction was 37–94%. However spatial choice and TK together had little further effect in reducing RQ. The reasons for this are that when the proportion of time spent in treated crop (PT) approaches 1, TK processes dominate and spatial choice has very little effect, and conversely if PT is small spatial choice dominates and TK makes little contribution to exposure reduction. The latter situation means that a short time spent in the pesticide-treated field mimics exposure from a small gavage dose, but TK only makes a substantial difference when the dose was consumed over a longer period. We concluded that a combined TK-IBM is most likely to bring added value to the risk assessment process when the temporal pattern of feeding, time spent in exposed area and TK parameters are at an intermediate level; for instance wood mice in foliar spray scenarios spending more time in crop fields because of better plant cover.

Mergers and acquisitions: driving the growth of MNEs

This paper examines the effects of internationalization (international diversification) and diversification across industries (product diversification) through mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the firm’s risk-return profile. Drawing on the theoretical work of Vachani (1991) and Rugman and Verbeke’s (2004) metrics, we classify firms according to their degree of product diversification and global reach. These two dimensions at the firm-level are moderators for the performance–expansion relationship. To account for the endogeneity of market entry decisions, we develop a panel vector autoregression. We show that global and host-triad multinational enterprises (MNEs) benefit from cross-border M&As, which reinforces their geographic footprint. In contrast to all other types of firms, home-triad firms exhibit higher firm value without a change in risk when conducting cross-industry M&As. This effect, however, depends on the degree of product diversification. For home-triad firms with a small product range engaging in cross- industry transactions is a value-enhancing growth strategy.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Incentive effects on risk attitude in small probability prospects

We report between-subject results on the effect of monetary stakes on risk attitudes. While we find the typical risk seeking for small probabilities, risk seeking is reduced under high stakes. This suggests that utility is not consistently concave.

Fat mass-and obesity-associated genotype, dietary intakes and anthropometric measures in European adults: the Food4Me study

The interplay between the fat mass- and obesity-associated (FTO) gene variants and diet has been implicated in the development of obesity. The aim of the present analysis was to investigate associations between FTO genotype, dietary intakes and anthropometrics among European adults. Participants in the Food4Me randomised controlled trial were genotyped for FTO genotype (rs9939609) and their dietary intakes, and diet quality scores (Healthy Eating Index and PREDIMED-based Mediterranean diet score) were estimated from FFQ. Relationships between FTO genotype, diet and anthropometrics (weight, waist circumference (WC) and BMI) were evaluated at baseline. European adults with the FTO risk genotype had greater WC (AAv. TT: +1·4 cm; P=0·003) and BMI (+0·9 kg/m2; P=0·001) than individuals with no risk alleles. Subjects with the lowest fried food consumption and two copies of the FTO risk variant had on average 1·4 kg/m2 greater BMI (Ptrend=0·028) and 3·1 cm greater WC (Ptrend=0·045) compared with individuals with no copies of the risk allele and with the lowest fried food consumption. However, there was no evidence of interactions between FTO genotype and dietary intakes on BMI and WC, and thus further research is required to confirm or refute these findings.

Analysis of dietary pattern impact on weight status for personalised nutrition through on-line advice: the Food4Me Spanish cohort

Obesity prevalence is increasing. The management of this condition requires a detailed analysis of the global risk factors in order to develop personalised advice. This study is aimed to identify current dietary patterns and habits in Spanish population interested in personalised nutrition and investigate associations with weight status. Self-reported dietary and anthropometrical data from the Spanish participants in the Food4Me study, were used in a multidimensional exploratory analysis to define specific dietary profiles. Two opposing factors were obtained according to food groups’ intake: Factor 1 characterised by a more frequent consumption of traditionally considered unhealthy foods; and Factor 2, where the consumption of “Mediterranean diet” foods was prevalent. Factor 1 showed a direct relationship with BMI (β = 0.226; r2 = 0.259; p < 0.001), while the association with Factor 2 was inverse (β = −0.037; r2 = 0.230; p = 0.348). A total of four categories were defined (Prudent, Healthy, Western, and Compensatory) through classification of the sample in higher or lower adherence to each factor and combining the possibilities. Western and Compensatory dietary patterns, which were characterized by high-density foods consumption, showed positive associations with overweight prevalence. Further analysis showed that prevention of overweight must focus on limiting the intake of known deleterious foods rather than exclusively enhance healthy products.

Generalized drivers in the mammalian endangerment process

An important challenge for conservation today is to understand the endangerment process and identify any generalized patterns in how threats occur and aggregate across taxa. Here we use a global database describing main current external threats in mammals to evaluate the prevalence of distinct threatening processes, primarily of anthropogenic origin, and to identify generalized drivers of extinction and their association with vulnerability status and intrinsic species' traits. We detect several primary threat combinations that are generally associated with distinct species. In particular, large and widely distributed mammals are affected by combinations of direct exploitation and threats associated with increasing landscape modification that go from logging to intense human land-use. Meanwhile, small, narrowly distributed species are affected by intensifying levels of landscape modification but are not directly exploited. In general more vulnerable species are affected by a greater number of threats, suggesting increased extinction risk is associated with the accumulation of external threats. Overall, our findings show that endangerment in mammals is strongly associated with increasing habitat loss and degradation caused by human land-use intensification. For large and widely distributed mammals there is the additional risk of being hunted.

Constructing risk across timescales and trajectories: Gay men's stories of sexual encounters

This paper explores the way risk is constructed in the stories gay men tell of their sexual experiences. It focuses on how tellers use such stories to portray themselves both as rational actors and as legitimate members of their social groups by reconstructing the ‘orderliness’ of sexual encounters. An analysis of a corpus of stories derived from a diary study of gay male sexual behaviour in Hong Kong using current theories of discourse analysis reveals how narrators organize their experiences along two primary vectors of engagement: a sequential vector along which the trajectory of the sexual encounter is presented as a chain of occurrences, each occurrence contingent upon previous ones and warranting subsequent ones, and a hierarchical vector along which processes perceived on longer timescales are portrayed as exerting pressure on the ways processes on shorter timescales unfold. Examining how men portray these vectors in their accounts of risk behaviour can help us better understand both the situatedness of risk behaviour and the ways it is linked to larger social practices, identity projects and community histories

The role of big data in governance: a regulatory and legal perspective of analytics in global financial services

This paper discusses how global financial institutions are using big data analytics within their compliance operations. A lot of previous research has focused on the strategic implications of big data, but not much research has considered how such tools are entwined with regulatory breaches and investigations in financial services. Our work covers two in-depth qualitative case studies, each addressing a distinct type of analytics. The first case focuses on analytics which manage everyday compliance breaches and so are expected by managers. The second case focuses on analytics which facilitate investigation and litigation where serious unexpected breaches may have occurred. In doing so, the study focuses on the micro/data to understand how these tools are influencing operational risks and practices. The paper draws from two bodies of literature, the social studies of information systems and finance to guide our analysis and practitioner recommendations. The cases illustrate how technologies are implicated in multijurisdictional challenges and regulatory conflicts at each end of the operational risk spectrum. We find that compliance analytics are both shaping and reporting regulatory matters yet often firms may have difficulties in recruiting individuals with relevant but diverse skill sets. The cases also underscore the increasing need for financial organizations to adopt robust information governance policies and processes to ease future remediation efforts.