An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

South Africa and constructive engagement: lessons learned?

There has been much criticism of President Mbeki's policy of constructive engagement towards Mugabe's regime in Zimbabwe. This has grown since 2000 as the crisis has continued to worsen. This article compares Pretoria's current approach with the Reagan administration's constructive engagement towards Pretoria in the 1980s. Washington made a number of significant mistakes in the design and implementation of this policy and each of these is examined. An investigation of Mbeki's actions concludes that he is currently committing many of the same errors. Not only does this damage Mbeki's credibility, it also damages the credibility of a vital diplomatic tool - reducing constructive engagement once again to a diplomatic fig leaf to cover 'business as usual' with a rogue state.

Understanding the resurgence of traditional authorities in post-apartheid South Africa

Drawing their power not from the ballot box but from a supposedly ancient wellspring of power, hereditary traditional authorities in postcolonial Africa have frequently posed challenges for incoming ‘democratic’ governments. The situation in post-apartheid South Africa is no different. However contentious their role under the colonial and apartheid systems of government was, the Constitution of the new South Africa (1996) recognised traditional authorities and afforded them opportunities for a political resurgence. This paper reviews the changing status of traditional authorities in the Eastern Cape Province over the twenty years since 1994. It explores the resurgence of the chiefs in relation to the consolidation of both democratic processes and of emergent, neo-patrimonial modes of government. It briefly considers the role of traditional authorities in three key and closely related spheres, namely the institution of the Eastern Cape House of Traditional Leaders, the question of how gender is handled by and within traditional institutions, and the continuing challenges of land administration and development in rural areas. In all these spheres, and in the face of real opposition, the voice and influence traditional authorities have emerged stronger than ever. We conclude by suggesting that as they are drawn deeper into governance and have to play a formal role in addressing the myriad institutional challenges, new questions will and should be asked about the status and influence of traditional authorities, and their substantive contribution to democracy in South Africa.