An anatomy of the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s

In the 1960s and early 1970s sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean cooled rapidly. There is still considerable uncertainty about the causes of this event, although various mechanisms have been proposed. In this observational study it is demonstrated that the cooling proceeded in several distinct stages. Cool anomalies initially appeared in the mid-1960s in the Nordic Seas and Gulf Stream Extension, before spreading to cover most of the Subpolar Gyre. Subsequently, cool anomalies spread into the tropical North Atlantic before retreating, in the late 1970s, back to the Subpolar Gyre. There is strong evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation, linked to a southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ, played an important role in the event, particularly in the period 1972-76. Theories for the cooling event must account for its distinctive space-time evolution. Our analysis suggests that the most likely drivers were: 1) The “Great Salinity Anomaly” of the late 1960s; 2) An earlier warming of the subpolar North Atlantic, which may have led to a slow-down in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; 3) An increase in anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. Determining the relative importance of these factors is a key area for future work.

Land use and climate change impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in semi-arid Spain

Purpose The sensitivity of soil organic carbon to global change drivers, according to the depth profile, is receiving increasing attention because of its importance in the global carbon cycle and its potential feedback to climate change. A better knowledge of the vertical distribution of SOC and its controlling factors—the aim of this study—will help scientists predict the consequences of global change. Materials and methods The study area was the Murcia Province (S.E. Spain) under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The database used consists of 312 soil profiles collected in a systematic grid, each 12 km2 covering a total area of 11,004 km2. Statistical analysis to study the relationships between SOC concentration and control factors in different soil use scenarios was conducted at fixed depths of 0–20, 20–40, 40–60, and 60–100 cm. Results and discussion SOC concentration in the top 40 cm ranged between 6.1 and 31.5 g kg−1, with significant differences according to land use, soil type and lithology, while below this depth, no differences were observed (SOC concentration 2.1–6.8 g kg−1). The ANOVA showed that land use was the most important factor controlling SOC concentration in the 0–40 cm depth. Significant differences were found in the relative importance of environmental and textural factors according to land use and soil depth. In forestland, mean annual precipitation and texture were the main predictors of SOC, while in cropland and shrubland, the main predictors were mean annual temperature and lithology. Total SOC stored in the top 1 m in the region was about 79 Tg with a low mean density of 7.18 kg Cm−3. The vertical distribution of SOC was shallower in forestland and deeper in cropland. A reduction in rainfall would lead to SOC decrease in forestland and shrubland, and an increase of mean annual temperature would adversely affect SOC in croplands and shrubland. With increasing depth, the relative importance of climatic factors decreases and texture becomes more important in controlling SOC in all land uses. Conclusions Due to climate change, impacts will be much greater in surface SOC, the strategies for C sequestration should be focused on subsoil sequestration, which was hindered in forestland due to bedrock limitations to soil depth. In these conditions, sequestration in cropland through appropriate management practices is recommended.

Meteorological factors controlling low-level continental pollutant outflow across a coast

Coastal outflow describes the horizontal advection of pollutants from the continental boundary layer across a coastline into a layer above the marine boundary layer. This process can ventilate polluted continental boundary layers and thus regulate air quality in highly populated coastal regions. This paper investigates the factors controlling coastal outflow and quantifies its importance as a ventilation mechanism. Tracers in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are used to examine the magnitude and variability of coastal outflow over the eastern United States for a 4 week period during summer 2004. Over the 4 week period, ventilation of tracer from the continental boundary layer via coastal outflow occurs with the same magnitude as vertical ventilation via convection and advection. The relative importance of tracer decay rate, cross-coastal advection rate, and a parameter based on the relative continental and marine boundary layer heights, on coastal outflow is assessed by reducing the problem to a time-dependent box-model. The ratio of the advection rate and decay rate is a dimensionless parameter which determines whether tracers are long-lived or short-lived. Long- and short-lived tracers exhibit different behaviours with respect to coastal outflow. For short-lived tracers, increasing the advection rate increases the diurnally averaged magnitude of coastal outflow, but has the opposite effect for very long-lived tracers. Short-lived tracers exhibit large diurnal variability in coastal outflow but long-lived tracers do not. By combining the MetUM and box-model simulations a landwidth is determined which represents the distance inland over which emissions contribute significantly to coastal outflow. A landwidth of between 100 and 400 km is found to be representative for a tracer with a lifetime of 24 h.

Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate simulations show consistent large-scale temperature responses including amplified land–ocean contrast, high-latitude/low-latitude contrast, and changes in seasonality in response to year-round forcing, in both warm and cold climates, and these responses are proportional and nearly linear across multiple climate states. We examine the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms controls these large-scale responses using a simple energy-balance model to decompose the temperature changes shown in multiple lgm and abrupt4 × CO 2 simulations from the CMIP5 archive. Changes in the individual components of the energy balance are broadly consistent across the models. Although several components are involved in the overall temperature responses, surface downward clear-sky longwave radiation is the most important component driving land–ocean contrast and high-latitude amplification in both warm and cold climates. Surface albedo also plays a significant role in promoting high-latitude amplification in both climates and in intensifying the land–ocean contrast in the warm climate case. The change in seasonality is a consequence of the changes in land–ocean and high-latitude/low-latitude contrasts rather than an independent temperature response. This is borne out by the fact that no single component stands out as being the major cause of the change in seasonality, and the relative importance of individual components is different in cold and warm climates.

Exploring farmer preferences for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia vaccination: a case study of Narok District, Kenya

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important disease in most of sub-Saharan Africa. A conjoint analysis and ordered probit regression models were used to measure the preferences of farmers for CBPP vaccine and vaccination attributes. This was with regard to inclusion or not of an indicator in the vaccine, vaccine safety, vaccine stability as well as frequency of vaccination, vaccine administration and the nature of vaccination. The analysis was carried out in 190 households in Narok District of Kenya between October and December 2006 using structured questionnaires, 16 attribute profiles and a five-point Likert scale. The factors affecting attribute valuation were shown through a two-way location interaction model. The study also demonstrated the relative importance (RI) of attributes and the compensation value of attribute levels. The attribute coefficient estimates showed that farmers prefer a vaccine that has an indicator, is 100% safe and is administered by the government (p<0.0001). The preferences for the vaccine attributes were consistent with expectations. Preferences for stability, frequency of vaccination and nature of vaccination differed amongst farmers (p>0.05). While inclusion of an indicator in the vaccine was the most important attribute (RI=43.6%), price was the least important (RI=0.5%). Of the 22 household factors considered, 15 affected attribute valuation. The compensation values for a change from non inclusion to inclusion of an indicator, 95-100% safety, 2h to greater than 2h stability and from compulsory to elective vaccination were positive while those for a change from annual to biannual vaccination and from government to private administration were negative. The study concluded that the farmers in Narok District had preferences for specific vaccine and vaccination attributes. These preferences were conditioned by various household characteristics and disease risk factors. On average the farmers would need to be compensated or persuaded to accept biannual and private vaccination against CBPP. There is need for consideration of farmer preferences for vaccine attribute levels during vaccine formulations and farmer preferences for vaccination attribute levels when designing delivery of vaccines.

Orange juice–derived flavanone and phenolic metabolites do not acutely affect cardiovascular risk biomarkers: a randomized, placebo-controlled, crossover trial in men at moderate risk of cardiovascular disease

Background: Epidemiological data suggest inverse associations between citrus flavanone intake and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, insufficient randomized controlled trial (RCT) data limit our understanding of mechanisms by which flavanones and their metabolites potentially reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk factors. Objective: We examined the effects of orange juice or a dose-matched hesperidin supplement on plasma concentrations of established and novel flavanone metabolites and their effects on CV risk biomarkers in men at moderate CVD risk. Methods: In an acute, randomized, placebo-controlled crossover trial, 16 fasted participants (aged 51-69 y) received orange juice or a hesperidin supplement (both providing 320 mg hesperidin) or control (all matched for sugar and vitamin C content). At baseline and 5 h post-intake, endothelial function (primary outcome), further CV risk biomarkers (i.e. blood pressure, arterial stiffness, cardiac autonomic function, platelet activation and NADPH oxidase gene expression) and plasma flavanone metabolites were assessed. Prior to each intervention, a diet low in flavonoids, nitrate/nitrite, alcohol and caffeine was followed and a standardized low-flavonoid evening meal was consumed. Results: Orange juice intake significantly elevated mean (± SEM) plasma concentrations of 8 flavanone (1.75 ± 0.35 µmol/L, P < 0.0001) and 15 phenolic metabolites (13.27 ± 2.22 µmol/L, P < 0.0001) compared with control at 5 h post-consumption. Despite increased plasma flavanone and phenolic metabolite concentrations, CV risk biomarkers were unaltered. Following hesperidin supplement intake, flavanone metabolites were not different to control, suggesting altered absorption/metabolism compared with the orange juice matrix. Conclusions: Following single-dose flavanone intake within orange juice, we detected circulating flavanone and phenolic metabolites collectively reaching a concentration of 15.20 ± 2.15 µmol/L but observed no effect on CV risk biomarkers. Longer-duration RCTs are required to further examine the previous associations between higher flavanone intakes and improved cardiovascular health and to ascertain the relative importance of food matrix and flavanone-derived phenolic metabolites.

Clinical predictors of response to cognitive-behavioural therapy in pediatric anxiety disorders: the Genes for Treatment (GXT) Study

Objective The Genes for Treatment study is an international, multisite collaboration exploring the role of genetic, demographic, and clinical predictors in response to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in pediatric anxiety disorders. The current article, the first from the study, examined demographic and clinical predictors of response to CBT. We hypothesized that the child’s gender, type of anxiety disorder, initial severity and comorbidity, and parents’ psychopathology would significantly predict outcome. Method A sample of 1,519 children 5 to 18 years of age with a primary anxiety diagnosis received CBT across 11 sites. Outcome was defined as response (change in diagnostic severity) and remission (absence of the primary diagnosis) at each time point (posttreatment, 3-, 6-, and/or 12-month follow-up) and analyzed using linear and logistic mixed models. Separate analyses were conducted using data from posttreatment and follow-up assessments to explore the relative importance of predictors at these time points. Results Individuals with social anxiety disorder (SoAD) had significantly poorer outcomes (poorer response and lower rates of remission) than those with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Although individuals with specific phobia (SP) also had poorer outcomes than those with GAD at posttreatment, these differences were not maintained at follow-up. Both comorbid mood and externalizing disorders significantly predicted poorer outcomes at posttreatment and follow-up, whereas self-reported parental psychopathology had little effect on posttreatment outcomes but significantly predicted response (although not remission) at follow-up. Conclusion SoAD, nonanxiety comorbidity, and parental psychopathology were associated with poorer outcomes after CBT. The results highlight the need for enhanced treatments for children at risk for poorer outcomes.

EU housing markets: the role of institutional factors

Using cluster analysis this study reveals significant heterogeneity in the institutional characteristics of European mortgage markets. Distinct clusters are formed which can be related to differences in the mortgage credit system, the relative importance of the owner-occupation and the property specific fiscal system. The paper then tests for multiple structural breaks. We find evidence that structural breaks in European housing markets often coincide with a changes in housing market policy.

Radiative forcing and climate change

Aviation causes climate change as a result of its emissions of CO2, oxides of nitrogen, aerosols, and water vapor. One simple method of quantifying the climate impact of past emissions is radiative forcing. The radiative forcing due to changes in CO2 is best characterized, but there are formidable difficulties in estimating the non-CO2 forcings – this is particularly the case for possible aviation-induced changes in cloudiness (AIC). The most recent comprehensive assessment gave a best estimate of the 2005 total radiative forcing due to aviation of about 55–78 mW m−2 depending on whether AIC was included or not, with an uncertainty of at least a factor of 2. The aviation CO2 radiative forcing represents about 1.6% of the total CO2 forcing from all human activities. It is estimated that, including the non-CO2 effects, aviation contributes between 1.3 and 14% of the total radiative forcing due to all human activities. Alternative methods for comparing the future impact of present-day aviation emissions are presented – the perception of the relative importance of the non-CO2 emissions, relative to CO2, depends considerably on the chosen method and the parameters chosen within those methods.

Jersey milk suitability for Cheddar cheese production: process, yield, quality and financial impacts

The aim of this study was to first evaluate the benefits of including Jersey milk into Holstein-Friesian milk on the Cheddar cheese making process and secondly, using the data gathered, identify the effects and relative importance of a wide range of milk components on milk coagulation properties and the cheese making process. Blending Jersey and Holstein-Friesian milk led to quadratic trends on the size of casein micelle and fat globule and on coagulation properties. However this was not found to affect the cheese making process. Including Jersey milk was found, on a pilot scale, to increase cheese yield (up to + 35 %) but it did not affect cheese quality, which was defined as compliance with the legal requirements of cheese composition, cheese texture, colour and grading scores. Profitability increased linearly with the inclusion of Jersey milk (up to 11.18 p£ L-1 of milk). The commercial trials supported the pilot plant findings, demonstrating that including Jersey milk increased cheese yield without having a negative impact on cheese quality, despite the inherent challenges of scaling up such a process commercially. The successful use of a large array of milk components to model the cheese making process challenged the commonly accepted view that fat, protein and casein content and protein to fat ratio are the main contributors to the cheese making process as other components such as the size of casein micelle and fat globule were found to also play a key role with small casein micelle and large fat globule reducing coagulation time, improving curd firmness, fat recovery and influencing cheese moisture and fat content. The findings of this thesis indicated that milk suitability for Cheddar making could be improved by the inclusion of Jersey milk and that more compositional factors need to be taken into account when judging milk suitability.

Response of the North Atlantic wave climate to atmospheric modes of variability

This study investigates the relationship between the wind wave climate and the main climate modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. The modes considered are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the East Atlantic Western Russian (EA/WR) pattern and the Scandinavian (SCAN) pattern. The wave dataset consists of buoys records, remote sensing altimetry observations and a numerical hindcast providing significant wave height (SWH), mean wave period (MWP) and mean wave direction (MWD) for the period 1989–2009. After evaluating the reliability of the hindcast, we focus on the impact of each mode on seasonal wave parameters and on the relative importance of wind-sea and swell components. Results demonstrate that the NAO and EA patterns are the most relevant, whereas EA/WR and SCAN patterns have a weaker impact on the North Atlantic wave climate variability. During their positive phases, both NAO and EA patterns are related to winter SWH at a rate that reaches 1 m per unit index along the Scottish coast (NAO) and Iberian coast (EA) patterns. In terms of winter MWD, the two modes induce a counterclockwise shift of up to 65° per negative NAO (positive EA) unit over west European coasts. They also increase the winter MWP in the North Sea and in the Bay of Biscay (up to 1 s per unit NAO) and along the western coasts of Europe and North Africa (1 s per unit EA). The impact of winter EA pattern on all wave parameters is mostly caused through the swell wave component.

Overgeneral autobiological memory in women: association with childhood abuse and history of depression in a community sample

Objective. Numerous studies have reported elevated levels of overgeneral autobiographical memory among depressed patients and also among those previously exposed to a traumatic event. No previous study has examined their joint association with overgeneral memory in a community sample, nor examined whether the associations are with both juvenile- and adult-onset depression. Methods. The current study examined the relative importance of exposure to childhood abuse and neglect in overgeneral memory of women with and without a history of major depressive disorder (MDD). Autobiographical memory test together with standardized interviews of childhood experiences and MDD were assessed in a risk-stratified community sample of 103 women aged 25–37. Results. Overgenerality in memory was associated with recalled childhood sexual abuse (CSA) but not other adversities. A history of CSA was predictive of overgeneral memory bias even in the absence of MDD. Our analyses indicated no significant association between a history of MDD and overgeneral memory in women who reported no CSA. However, overgeneral memory was increased in women who reported CSA and MDD with a significant difference found in relation to positive cues, the highest scores being seen among those with adult rather than juvenile-onset depression. Conclusions. The findings highlight the significance of CSA in predicting overgeneral memory, differential response in relation to positive and negative cue memories, and point to a specific role in the development of depression for overgeneral memory following CSA.

International films and international markets: the globalisation of Hollywood entertainment, c.1921-1951

The international appeal of Hollywood films through the twentieth century has been a subject of interest to economic and film historians alike. This paper employs some of the methods of the economic historian to evaluate key arguments within the film history literature explaining the global success of American films. Through careful analysis of both existing and newly constructed data sets, the paper examines the extent to which Hollywood's foreign earnings were affected by: film production costs; the extent of global distribution networks; and also the international orientation of the films themselves. The paper finds that these factors influenced foreign earnings in quite distinct ways, and that their relative importance changed over time. The evidence presented here suggests a degree of interaction between the production and distribution arms of the major US film companies in their pursuit of foreign markets that would benefit from further archival-based investigation.

Responses of leaf traits to climatic gradients: adaptive variation versus compositional shifts

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically rely on plant functional types (PFTs), which are assigned distinct environmental tolerances and replace one another progressively along environmental gradients. Fixed values of traits are assigned to each PFT; modelled trait variation along gradients is thus driven by PFT replacement. But empirical studies have revealed "universal" scaling relationships (quantitative trait variations with climate that are similar within and between species, PFTs and communities); and continuous, adaptive trait variation has been proposed to replace PFTs as the basis for next-generation DGVMs. Here we analyse quantitative leaf-trait variation on long temperature and moisture gradients in China with a view to understanding the relative importance of PFT replacement vs. continuous adaptive variation within PFTs. Leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and nitrogen content of dry matter were measured on all species at 80 sites ranging from temperate to tropical climates and from dense forests to deserts. Chlorophyll fluorescence traits and carbon, phosphorus and potassium contents were measured at 47 sites. Generalized linear models were used to relate log-transformed trait values to growing-season temperature and moisture indices, with or without PFT identity as a predictor, and to test for differences in trait responses among PFTs. Continuous trait variation was found to be ubiquitous. Responses to moisture availability were generally similar within and between PFTs, but biophysical traits (LA, SLA and LDMC) of forbs and grasses responded differently from woody plants. SLA and LDMC responses to temperature were dominated by the prevalence of evergreen PFTs with thick, dense leaves at the warm end of the gradient. Nutrient (N, P and K) responses to climate gradients were generally similar within all PFTs. Area-based nutrients generally declined with moisture; Narea and Karea declined with temperature, but Parea increased with temperature. Although the adaptive nature of many of these trait-climate relationships is understood qualitatively, a key challenge for modelling is to predict them quantitatively. Models must take into account that community-level responses to climatic gradients can be influenced by shifts in PFT composition, such as the replacement of deciduous by evergreen trees, which may run either parallel or counter to trait variation within PFTs. The importance of PFT shifts varies among traits, being important for biophysical traits but less so for physiological and chemical traits. Finally, models should take account of the diversity of trait values that is found in all sites and PFTs, representing the "pool" of variation that is locally available for the natural adaptation of ecosystem function to environmental change.

Selecting algorithms for Earth observation of climate within the European Space Agency Climate Change initiative: introduction to a special issue

This special issue is focused on the assessment of algorithms for the observation of Earth’s climate from environ- mental satellites. Climate data records derived by remote sensing are increasingly a key source of insight into the workings of and changes in Earth’s climate system. Producers of data sets must devote considerable effort and expertise to maximise the true climate signals in their products and minimise effects of data processing choices and changing sensors. A key choice is the selection of algorithm(s) for classification and/or retrieval of the climate variable. Within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, science teams undertook systematic assessment of algorithms for a range of essential climate variables. The papers in the special issue report some of these exercises (for ocean colour, aerosol, ozone, greenhouse gases, clouds, soil moisture, sea surface temper- ature and glaciers). The contributions show that assessment exercises must be designed with care, considering issues such as the relative importance of different aspects of data quality (accuracy, precision, stability, sensitivity, coverage, etc.), the availability and degree of independence of validation data and the limitations of validation in characterising some important aspects of data (such as long-term stability or spatial coherence). As well as re- quiring a significant investment of expertise and effort, systematic comparisons are found to be highly valuable. They reveal the relative strengths and weaknesses of different algorithmic approaches under different observa- tional contexts, and help ensure that scientific conclusions drawn from climate data records are not influenced by observational artifacts, but are robust.