A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

What does the saving–investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the SI relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allows to separate long and short to medium run parameter dependence. The new modeling framework is applied to uncover the determinants of the SI relation. Macroeconomic state variables such as openness, the age dependency ratio, government current and consumption expenditures are found to affect the SI relation significantly in the long run.

A variational method to retrieve the extinction profile in liquid clouds using multiple field-of-view lidar

Liquid clouds play a profound role in the global radiation budget but it is difficult to remotely retrieve their vertical profile. Ordinary narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidars receive a strong return from such clouds but the information is limited to the first few optical depths. Wideangle multiple-FOV lidars can isolate radiation scattered multiple times before returning to the instrument, often penetrating much deeper into the cloud than the singly-scattered signal. These returns potentially contain information on the vertical profile of extinction coefficient, but are challenging to interpret due to the lack of a fast radiative transfer model for simulating them. This paper describes a variational algorithm that incorporates a fast forward model based on the time-dependent two-stream approximation, and its adjoint. Application of the algorithm to simulated data from a hypothetical airborne three-FOV lidar with a maximum footprint width of 600m suggests that this approach should be able to retrieve the extinction structure down to an optical depth of around 6, and total opticaldepth up to at least 35, depending on the maximum lidar FOV. The convergence behavior of Gauss-Newton and quasi-Newton optimization schemes are compared. We then present results from an application of the algorithm to observations of stratocumulus by the 8-FOV airborne “THOR” lidar. It is demonstrated how the averaging kernel can be used to diagnose the effective vertical resolution of the retrieved profile, and therefore the depth to which information on the vertical structure can be recovered. This work enables exploitation of returns from spaceborne lidar and radar subject to multiple scattering more rigorously than previously possible.

A global view of the extratropical tropopause transition layer from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer O3, H2O, and CO

The global behavior of the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) is investigated using O3, H2O, and CO measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) on Canada’s SCISAT-1 satellite obtained between February 2004 and May 2007. The ExTL depth is derived using H2O-O3 and CO-O3 correlations. The ExTL top derived from H2O-O3 shows an increase from roughly 1–1.5 km above the thermal tropopause in the subtropics to 3–4 km (2.5–3.5 km) in the north (south) polar region, implying somewhat weaker tropospherestratosphere- transport in the Southern Hemisphere. The ExTL bottom extends ~1 km below the thermal tropopause, indicating a persistent stratospheric influence on the troposphere at all latitudes. The ExTL top derived from the CO-O3 correlation is lower, at 2 km or ~345 K (1.5 km or ~335 K) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Its annual mean coincides with the relative temperature maximum just above the thermal tropopause. The vertical CO gradient maximizes at the thermal tropopause, indicating a local minimum in mixing within the tropopause region. The seasonal changes in and the scales of the vertical H2O gradients show a similar pattern as the static stability structure of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL), which provides observational support for the hypothesis that H2O plays a radiative role in forcing and maintaining the structure of the TIL.

Observational tracking of the 2D structure of coronal mass ejections between the sun and 1 AU

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) provides high cadence and high resolution images of the structure and morphology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the inner heliosphere. CME directions and propagation speeds have often been estimated through the use of time-elongation maps obtained from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) data. Many of these CMEs have been identified by citizen scientists working within the SolarStormWatch project ( www.solarstormwatch.com ) as they work towards providing robust real-time identification of Earth-directed CMEs. The wide field of view of HI allows scientists to directly observe the two-dimensional (2D) structures, while the relative simplicity of time-elongation analysis means that it can be easily applied to many such events, thereby enabling a much deeper understanding of how CMEs evolve between the Sun and the Earth. For events with certain orientations, both the rear and front edges of the CME can be monitored at varying heliocentric distances (R) between the Sun and 1 AU. Here we take four example events with measurable position angle widths and identified by the citizen scientists. These events were chosen for the clarity of their structure within the HI cameras and their long track lengths in the time-elongation maps. We show a linear dependency with R for the growth of the radial width (W) and the 2D aspect ratio (χ) of these CMEs, which are measured out to ≈ 0.7 AU. We estimated the radial width from a linear best fit for the average of the four CMEs. We obtained the relationships W=0.14R+0.04 for the width and χ=2.5R+0.86 for the aspect ratio (W and R in units of AU).

Preventing carbon contamination of optical devices for X-rays: the effect of oxygen on photon-induced dissociation of CO on platinum

Platinum is one of the most common coatings used to optimize mirror reflectivity in soft X-ray beamlines. Normal operation results in optics contamination by carbon-based molecules present in the residual vacuum of the beamlines. The reflectivity reduction induced by a carbon layer at the mirror surface is a major problem in synchrotron radiation sources. A time-dependent photoelectron spectroscopy study of the chemical reactions which take place at the Pt(111) surface under operating conditions is presented. It is shown that the carbon contamination layer growth can be stopped and reversed by low partial pressures of oxygen for optics operated in intense photon beams at liquidnitrogen temperature. For mirrors operated at room temperature the carbon contamination observed for equivalent partial pressures of CO is reduced and the effects of oxygen are observed on a long time scale.

Do soldiers' lives matter? A view from proportionality

A military operation is about to take place during an ongoing international armed conflict; it can be carried out either by aerial attack, which is expected to cause the deaths of enemy civilians, or by using ground troops, which is expected to cause the deaths of fewer enemy civilians but is expected to result in more deaths of compatriot soldiers. Does the principle of proportionality in international humanitarian law impose a duty on an attacker to expose its soldiers to life-threatening risks in order to minimise or avert risks of incidental damage to enemy civilians? If such a duty exists, is it absolute or qualified? And if it is a qualified duty, what considerations may be taken into account in determining its character and scope? This article presents an analytic framework under the current international humanitarian law (IHL) legal structure, following a proportionality analysis. The proposed framework identifies five main positions for addressing the above queries. The five positions are arranged along two ‘axes’: a value ‘axis’, which identifies the value assigned to the lives of compatriot soldiers in relation to lives of enemy civilians; and a justification ‘axis’, which outlines the justificatory bases for assigning certain values to lives of compatriot soldiers and enemy civilians: intrinsic, instrumental or a combination thereof. The article critically assesses these positions, and favours a position which attributes a value to compatriot soldiers’ lives, premised on a justificatory basis which marries intrinsic considerations with circumscribed instrumental considerations, avoiding the indeterminacy and normative questionability entailed by more expansive instrumental considerations.

The economic theory of international supply chains: a systems view

This paper offers an integrated analysis of out-sourcing, off-shoring and foreign direct investment within a systems view of international business. This view takes the supply chain rather than the firm as the basic unit of analysis. It argues that competition in the global economy selects supply chains that maximise the joint profit of all the firms in the chain. The systems view is compared with the firm-centred view commonly used in strategy literature. The paper shows that a firm’s strategy must be embedded within an efficient supply chain strategy, and that this strategy must be negotiated with, rather than imposed upon, other firms. The paper analyses the conditions under which various supply chain strategies - and by implication various firm-level strategies - are efficient. Only by adopting a systems view of supply chains is it possible to determine which firm-level strategies will succeed in a volatile global economy.

An in-depth view of the facets, antecedents and effects of leaders’ change competency: lessons from a case study

Leaders across companies initiate and implement change and thus are crucial for successful organizations. This study takes a competency perspective on leaders and investigates the competencies leaders show to facilitate effective change. The article explores the content of the construct of leaders’ change competency and examines its antecedents and effects. We conducted a case study in a German tourism company undergoing a major change process. The study identified (a) distinct content facets regarding the construct of leaders’ change competency along its two dimensions of leaders’ readiness for change and leaders’ change ability; (b) the construct’s antecedents, specifically contextual factors, leaders’ competency potentials, and attitudes toward change; and (c) beneficial effects of leaders’ change competency. The study ends with implications for research and leadership practice as well as suggestions for future studies on leaders’ change competency.

Transfers, contracts and regulation: a new institutional economics perspective on the changing provision of social housing in Britain

Social housing policy in the UK mirrors wider processes Associated with shifts in broad welfare regimes. Social housing has moved from dominance by state housing provision to the funding of new investment through voluntary sector housing associations to what is now a greater focus on the regulation and private financing of these not-for-profit bodies. If these trends run their course, we are likely to see a range of not-for-profit bodies providing non-market housing in a highly regulated quasi-market. This paper examines these issues through the lens of new institutional economics, which it is believed can provide important insights into the fundamental contractual and regulatory relationships that are coming to dominate social housing from the perspective of the key actors in the sector (not-for-profit housing organisations, their tenants, private lenders and the regulatory state). The paper draws on evidence recently collected from a study evaluating more than 100 stock transfer organisations that inherited ex-public housing in Scotland, including 12 detailed case studies. The paper concludes that social housing stakeholders need to be aware of the risks (and their management) faced across the sector and that the state needs to have clear objectives for social housing and coherent policy instruments to achieve those ends.

An integrated view of data quality in Earth observation

Data quality is a difficult notion to define precisely, and different communities have different views and understandings of the subject. This causes confusion, a lack of harmonization of data across communities and omission of vital quality information. For some existing data infrastructures, data quality standards cannot address the problem adequately and cannot fulfil all user needs or cover all concepts of data quality. In this study, we discuss some philosophical issues on data quality. We identify actual user needs on data quality, review existing standards and specifications on data quality, and propose an integrated model for data quality in the field of Earth observation (EO). We also propose a practical mechanism for applying the integrated quality information model to a large number of datasets through metadata inheritance. While our data quality management approach is in the domain of EO, we believe that the ideas and methodologies for data quality management can be applied to wider domains and disciplines to facilitate quality-enabled scientific research.

Planning autonomous vehicles in the absence of speed lanes using lateral potentials

Chaotic traffic, prevalent in many countries, is marked by a large number of vehicles driving with different speeds without following any predefined speed lanes. Such traffic rules out using any planning algorithm for these vehicles which is based upon the maintenance of speed lanes and lane changes. The absence of speed lanes may imply more bandwidth and easier overtaking in cases where vehicles vary considerably in both their size and speed. Inspired by the performance of artificial potential fields in the planning of mobile robots, we propose here lateral potentials as measures to enable vehicles to decide about their lateral positions on the road. Each vehicle is subjected to a potential from obstacles and vehicles in front, road boundaries, obstacles and vehicles to the side and higher speed vehicles to the rear. All these potentials are lateral and only govern steering the vehicle. A speed control mechanism is also used for longitudinal control of vehicle. The proposed system is shown to perform well for obstacle avoidance, vehicle following and overtaking behaviors.

Wall materials and techniques available for low cost housing in Khartoum from a sustainability point of view

Khartoum like many cities in least developing countries (LDCs) still witnesses huge influx of people. Accommodation of the new comers leads to encroachment on the cultivation land leads to sprawl expansion of Greater Khartoum. The city expanded in diameter from 16.8 km in 1955 to 802.5 km in 1998. Most of this horizontal expansion was residential. In 2008 Khartoum accommodated 29% of the urban population of Sudan. Today Khartoum is considered as one of 43 major cities in Africa that accommodates more than 1 million inhabitants. Most of new comers live in the outskirts of the city e.g. Dar El-Salam and Mayo neighbourhoods. The majority of those new comers built their houses especially the walls from mud, wood, straw and sacks. Selection of building materials usually depends on its price regardless of the environmental impact, quality, thermal performance and life of the material. Most of the time, this results in increasing the cost with variables of impacts over the environment during the life of the building. Therefore, consideration of the environmental impacts, social impacts and economic impacts is crucial in the selection of any building material. Decreasing such impacts could lead to more sustainable housing. Comparing the sustainability of the available wall building materials for low cost housing in Khartoum is carried out through the life cycle assessment (LCA) technique. The purpose of this paper is to compare the most available local building materials for walls for the urban poor of Khartoum from a sustainability point of view by going through the manufacturing of the materials, the use of these materials and then the disposal of the materials after their life comes to an end. Findings reveal that traditional red bricks couldn’t be considered as a sustainable wall building material that will draw the future of the low cost housing in Greater Khartoum. On the other hand, results of the comparison lead to draw attention to the wide range of the soil techniques and to its potentials to be a promising sustainable wall material for urban low cost housing in Khartoum.

Wind gust estimation for Mid-European winter storms: towards a probabilistic view

Three wind gust estimation (WGE) methods implemented in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO-CLM are evaluated with respect to their forecast quality using skill scores. Two methods estimate gusts locally from mean wind speed and the turbulence state of the atmosphere, while the third one considers the mixing-down of high momentum within the planetary boundary layer (WGE Brasseur). One hundred and fifty-eight windstorms from the last four decades are simulated and results are compared with gust observations at 37 stations in Germany. Skill scores reveal that the local WGE methods show an overall better behaviour, whilst WGE Brasseur performs less well except for mountain regions. The here introduced WGE turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) permits a probabilistic interpretation using statistical characteristics of gusts at observational sites for an assessment of uncertainty. The WGE TKE formulation has the advantage of a ‘native’ interpretation of wind gusts as result of local appearance of TKE. The inclusion of a probabilistic WGE TKE approach in NWP models has, thus, several advantages over other methods, as it has the potential for an estimation of uncertainties of gusts at observational sites.