Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.

Brand protection and the globalization of British business

In expanding on earlier analyses of the evolution of multinational business that have drawn from concepts of competition and innovation, this study examines the strategies used by British multinationals, between 1870 and 1929, to protect the global reputation of their brands, which were crucial to their survival and success. Even after the passage of new trademark legislation in 1876, enforcement of trademarks remained expensive, and often firms preferred to negotiate, rather than to prosecute violations. Many trademark imitators were based in the newly industrializing countries of the time—the United States, Germany, and Japan—and were part of the British export supply chains as licensees, franchisees, or wholesalers. British firms responded to infringements by lobbying governments, appointing local agents to provide intelligence, and collaborating with other firms.

Production and dissolution rates of earthworm-secreted calcium carbonate

Earthworms secrete granules of calcium carbonate. These are potentially important in soil biogeochemical cycles and are routinely recorded in archaeological studies of Quaternary soils. Production rates of calcium carbonate granules by the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris L. were determined over 27 days in a range of soils with differing chemical properties (pH, organic matter content, water holding capacity, bulk composition, cation exchange capacity and exchangeable cations). Production rate varied between soils, lay in the range 0–0.043 mmolCaCO3 (0–4.3 mg) earthworm−1 d−1 with an average rate of 8 × 10−3 mmolCaCO3 (0.8 mg) earthworm−1 d−1 and was significantly correlated (r = 0.68, P ≤ 0.01) with soil pH. In a second experiment lasting 315 days earthworms repeatedly (over periods of 39–57 days) produced comparable masses of granules. Converting individual earthworm granule production rates into fluxes expressed on per hectare of land per year basis depends heavily on estimates of earthworm numbers. Using values of 10–20 L. terrestris m−2 suggests a rate of 18– 3139 molCaCO3 ha−1 yr−1. Data obtained from flow-through dissolution experiments suggest that at near neutral pH, granule geometric surface areanormalised dissolution rates are similar to those for other biogenic and inorganic calcium carbonate. Fits of the data to the dissolution relationship r = k(1 − ˝)n where r = dissolution rate, k = a rate constant, ˝ = relative saturation and n = the reaction order gave values of k = 1.72 × 10−10 mol cm−2 s−1 and n = 1.8 for the geometric surface area-normalised rates and k = 3.51 × 10−13 mol cm−2 s−1 and n = 1.8 for the BET surface area-normalised rates. In 196 day leaching column experiments trends in granule dissolution rate referenced to soil chemistry corresponded to predictions made by the SLIM model for dissolution of limestone in soil. If soil solution approaches saturation with respect to calcium carbonate granule dissolution will slow or even stop and granules be preserved indefinitely. Granules have the potential to be a small but significant component of the biogeochemical cycling of C and Ca in soil.

Building a left coast: the legacy of the California Popular Front and the challenge to Cold War liberalism in the post-world war two era

The Cold War in the late 1940s blunted attempts by the Truman administration to extend the scope of government in areas such as health care and civil rights. In California, the combined weakness of the Democratic Party in electoral politics and the importance of fellow travelers and communists in state liberal politics made the problem of how to advance the left at a time of heightened Cold War tensions particularly acute. Yet by the early 1960s a new generation of liberal politicians had gained political power in the Golden State and was constructing a greatly expanded welfare system as a way of cementing their hold on power. In this article I argue that the New Politics of the 1970s, shaped nationally by Vietnam and by the social upheavals of the 1960s over questions of race, gender, sexuality, and economic rights, possessed particular power in California because many activists drew on the longer-term experiences of a liberal politics receptive to earlier anti-Cold War struggles. A desire to use political involvement as a form of social networking had given California a strong Popular Front, and in some respects the power of new liberalism was an offspring of those earlier battles.

'They Shall Speak the Arabic Language and Take Pride in it': reconsidering the fate of Coptic after the Arab Conquest

The complaints on the adoption of Arabic by the Copts that are voiced by the Apocalypse of Pseudo-Samuel have often been quoted as the expiring words of the dying Coptic language. This article seeks to show that they are not to be taken so literally, and that they should rather be inserted in the context of a rift within the medieval Coptic church over the question of language choice, and beyond this, over that of accommodation with the Muslims. The use of Arabic by the episcopal church of Miṣr and by some prominent figures around it, which was linked to their proximity to the Fatimid court, was resented and denounced by more traditional circles, centred on the Patriarchate and on some important monasteries such as the one at Qalamūn where the Apocalypse was written. The suggestion is also made that the text is contemporary with the beginning of Coptic literary production in Arabic and with the introduction of Egyptian Christians at the caliphal court, namely in the last quarter of the tenth century, at the time of Severus ibn al-Muqqafa‘.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

The conditional performance of UK property funds

The evaluation of investment fund performance has been one of the main developments of modern portfolio theory. Most studies employ the technique developed by Jensen (1968) that compares a particular fund's returns to a benchmark portfolio of equal risk. However, the standard measures of fund manager performance are known to suffer from a number of problems in practice. In particular previous studies implicitly assume that the risk level of the portfolio is stationary through the evaluation period. That is unconditional measures of performance do not account for the fact that risk and expected returns may vary with the state of the economy. Therefore many of the problems encountered in previous performance studies reflect the inability of traditional measures to handle the dynamic behaviour of returns. As a consequence Ferson and Schadt (1996) suggest an approach to performance evaluation called conditional performance evaluation which is designed to address this problem. This paper utilises such a conditional measure of performance on a sample of 27 UK property funds, over the period 1987-1998. The results of which suggest that once the time varying nature of the funds beta is corrected for, by the addition of the market indicators, the average fund performance show an improvement over that of the traditional methods of analysis.

Effects of chronic consumption of fruit and vegetable puree-based drinks on vasodilation, plasma oxidative stability and antioxidant status

Background: Fruit and vegetable-rich diets are associated with a reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This protective effect may be a result of the phytochemicals present within fruits and vegetables (F&V). However, there can be considerable variation in the content of phytochemical composition of whole F&V depending on growing location, cultivar, season and agricultural practices, etc. Therefore, the present study investigated the effects of consuming fruits and vegetables as puree-based drinks (FVPD) daily on vasodilation, phytochemical bioavailability, antioxidant status and other CVD risk factors. FVPD was chosen to provide a standardised source of F&V material that could be delivered from the same batch to all subjects during each treatment arm of the study. Methods: Thirty-nine subjects completed the randomised, controlled, cross-over dietary intervention. Subjects were randomised to consume 200 mL of FVPD (or fruit-flavoured control), daily for 6 weeks with an 8-week washout period between treatments. Dietary intake was measured using two 5-day diet records during each cross-over arm of the study. Blood and urine samples were collected before and after each intervention and vasodilation assessed in 19 subjects using laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis. Results: FVPD significantly increased dietary vitamin C and carotenoids (P < 0.001), and concomitantly increased plasma α- and β-carotene (P < 0.001) with a near-significant increase in endothelium-dependent vasodilation (P = 0.060). Conclusions: Overall, the findings obtained in the present study showed that FVPD were a useful vehicle to increase fruit and vegetable intake, significantly increasing dietary and plasma phytochemical concentrations with a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation.

Cyclic extrusion of a lava dome based on a stick-slip mechanism

Lava dome eruptions are sometimes characterised by large periodic fluctuations in extrusion rate over periods of hours that may be accompanied by Vulcanian explosions and pyroclastic flows. We consider a simple system of nonlinear equations describing a 1D flow of lava extrusion through a deep elastic dyke feeding a shallower cylindrical conduit in order to simulate this short-period cyclicity. Stick-slip conditions depending on a critical shear stress are assumed at the wall boundary of the cylindrical conduit. By analogy with the behaviour of industrial polymers in a plastic extruder, the elastic dyke acts like a barrel and the shallower cylindrical portion of the conduit as a die for the flow of magma acting as a polymer. When we applied the model to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, for which the key parameters have been evaluated from previous studies, cyclic extrusions with periods from 3 to 30 h were readily simulated, matching observations. The model also reproduces the reduced period of cycles observed when a major unloading event occurs due to lava dome collapse.

The impact of installer business models on the uptake of residential microgeneration in the UK: Evidence from a nation-wide survey

This paper arises from a doctoral thesis comparing the impact of alternative installer business models on the rate at which microgeneration is taken up in homes and installation standards across the UK. The paper presents the results of the first large-scale academic survey of businesses certified to install residential microgeneration. The aim is to systematically capture those characteristics which define the business model of each surveyed company, and relate these to the number, location and type of technologies that they install, and the quality of these installations. The methodology comprised a pilot web survey of 235 certified installer businesses, which was carried out in June last year and achieved a response rate of 30%. Following optimisation of the design, the main web survey was emailed to over 2000 businesses between October and December 2011, with 317 valid responses received. The survey is being complemented during summer 2012 by semi-structured interviews with a representative sample of installers who completed the main survey. The survey results are currently being analysed. The early results indicate an emerging and volatile market where solar PV, solar hot water and air source heat pumps are the dominant technologies. Three quarters of respondents are founders of their installer business, while only 22 businesses are owned by another company. Over half of the 317 businesses have five employees or less, while 166 businesses are no more than four years old. In addition, half of the businesses stated that 100% of their employees work on microgeneration-related activities. 85% of the surveyed companies have only one business location in the UK. A third of the businesses are based either in the South West or South East regions of England. This paper outlines the interim results of the survey combined with the outcomes from additional interviews with installers to date. The research identifies some of the business models underpinning microgeneration installers and some of the ways in which installer business models impact on the rate and standards of microgeneration uptake. A tentative conclusion is that installer business models are profoundly dependent on the levels and timing of support from the UK Feed-in Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive.

The Limnology of Slapton Ley

Slapton Ley, a freshwater lake, located in south Devon (National Grid Reference SX 825 439), has been the focus of a wide range of research studies since the foundation of the Field Studies Council Centre in Slapton village in 1959, and the creation of the Slapton Ley Nature Reserve. Early concerns over eutrophication of the Lower Ley led to a range of studies focused on the impacts of land use change in the catchment, on nutrient delivery to the Ley, and on interpreting the impact of long-term nutrient enrichment of the Ley from palaeolimnological studies. What has been missing to date, however, is a focused study of the impacts of nutrient enrichment on the chemical and ecological structure and function of the combined Lower and Higher Ley systems. This paper attempts to draw together the various areas of study on the Ley to date in order to provide a review of current understanding of the limnology of Slapton Ley and to identify gaps in our knowledge. The past, present and future trophic status of the Ley is re-interpreted in the light of current understanding of the eutrophication process in the wider scientific community. Recommendations for future research are then made, with a view to the monitoring and management of Slapton Ley and its catchment.

Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: Observational evidence

Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century, and the question remains whether this is due to natural, internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China, the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958–2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days, particularly light rain days, then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character, being of one sign over most of China, and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days, particularly in the north, could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin, both global and regional, linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols.

Expression of the efflux pump genes cmeB, cmeF and the porin gene porA in multiple-antibiotic-resistant Campylobacter jejuni

Aims: In Escherichia coli, increased expression of efflux pumps and/or decreased expression of porins can confer multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR), causing resistance to at least three unrelated classes of antibiotics, detergents and dyes. It was hypothesized that in Campylobacter jejuni, the efflux systems CmeABC, CmeDEF and the major outer membrane porin protein, MOMP (encoded by porA) could confer MAR. Methods: The expression of cmeB, cmeF and porA in 32 MAR C. jejuni isolated from humans or poultry was determined by comparative (C)-reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR and denaturing DHPLC. A further 13 ethidium bromide-resistant isolates and three control strains were also investigated. Accumulation of ciprofloxacin carbonyl cyanide-m-chlorophenyl hydrazone (CCCP) was also determined for all strains. Results: Although resistance to ethidium bromide has been associated with MAR, expression of all three genes was similar in the ethidium bromide-resistant isolates. These data indicate that CmeB, CmeF and MOMP play no role in resistance to this agent in C. jejuni. Six MAR isolates over-expressed cmeB, 3/32 over-expressed cmeB and cmeF. No isolates over-expressed cmeF alone. Expression of porA was similar in all isolates. All nine isolates that over-expressed cmeB contained a mutation in cmeR, substituting glycine 86 with alanine. All cmeB over-expressing isolates also accumulated low concentrations of ciprofloxacin, which were restored to wild-type levels in the presence of CCCP. Conclusions: These data indicate that over-expression of cmeB is associated with MAR in isolates of C. jejuni. However, as cmeB was over-expressed by only one-third (9/32) of MAR isolates, these data also indicate other mechanisms of MAR in C. jejuni.

The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon

The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon) is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM). Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and black carbon (BC) emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon) due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation are different for sulphate and black carbon experiments. This study demonstrates a mechanism that links regional aerosol emission changes to the precipitation changes of the EASM, and it could be applied to help understand the future changes in EASM precipitation in CMIP5 simulations.

The accuracy of students' predictions of their GCSE grades

The paper reports a study that investigated the relationship between students’ self-predicted and actual General Certificate of Secondary Education results in order to establish the extent of over- and under-prediction and whether this varies by subject and across genders and socio-economic groupings. It also considered the relationship between actual and predicted attainment and attitudes towards going to university. The sample consisted of 109 young people in two schools being followed up from an earlier study. Just over 50% of predictions were accurate and students were much more likely to over-predict than to under-predict. Most errors of prediction were only one grade out and may reflect examination unreliability as well as student misperceptions. Girls were slightly less likely than boys to over-predict but there were no differences associated with social background. Higher levels of attainment, both actual and predicted, were strongly associated with positive attitudes to university. Differences between predictions and results are likely to reflect examination errors as well as pupil errors. There is no evidence that students from more advantaged social backgrounds over-estimate themselves compared with other students, although boys over-estimate themselves compared with girls.