The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations

We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family members are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Evaluation of ice cloud representation in the ECMWF and UK Met Office models using CloudSat and CALIPSO data

Ice cloud representation in general circulation models remains a challenging task, due to the lack of accurate observations and the complexity of microphysical processes. In this article, we evaluate the ice water content (IWC) and ice cloud fraction statistical distributions from the numerical weather prediction models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office, exploiting the synergy between the CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar. Using the last three weeks of July 2006, we analyse the global ice cloud occurrence as a function of temperature and latitude and show that the models capture the main geographical and temperature-dependent distributions, but overestimate the ice cloud occurrence in the Tropics in the temperature range from −60 °C to −20 °C and in the Antarctic for temperatures higher than −20 °C, but underestimate ice cloud occurrence at very low temperatures. A global statistical comparison of the occurrence of grid-box mean IWC at different temperatures shows that both the mean and range of IWC increases with increasing temperature. Globally, the models capture most of the IWC variability in the temperature range between −60 °C and −5 °C, and also reproduce the observed latitudinal dependencies in the IWC distribution due to different meteorological regimes. Two versions of the ECMWF model are assessed. The recent operational version with a diagnostic representation of precipitating snow and mixed-phase ice cloud fails to represent the IWC distribution in the −20 °C to 0 °C range, but a new version with prognostic variables for liquid water, ice and snow is much closer to the observed distribution. The comparison of models and observations provides a much-needed analysis of the vertical distribution of IWC across the globe, highlighting the ability of the models to reproduce much of the observed variability as well as the deficiencies where further improvements are required.

Office sustainability: occupier perceptions and implementation of policy

Purpose – The purpose of this research was twofold. First, to investigate the views of occupiers in a typical UK city on the importance of various sustainability issues, their perceived impact of different sustainability drivers and willingness to pay. Second, the environmental and social performance of existing buildings in that city was examined. Design/methodology/approach – The research focuses on buildings of 10,000 feet2 or more that have been constructed in the Bristol city-region in the UK over the past 50 years. The buildings in the sample are located in the city centre and in out-of-town business parks. A questionnaire survey investigated the views of occupiers and follow-up interviews looked more closely at the sustainability performance of the existing stock. Findings – The findings indicate that, as far as occupiers are concerned, the strongest drivers are consumer demand and staff demand. Green features of a building appear to rank low in the overall building selection preference structure and a willingness to pay a premium for green features was indicated. The interviews uncovered barriers to progress as well as initiatives to reduce both energy consumption and the environmental impact of office space. Practical implications – The paper identifies progress and issues which could form obstacles to improving the environmental performance of office buildings. It is argued that there is a need to focus on energy efficiency. Originality/value – This paper explores the linkage between the perception and use of office space by occupants and how this affects the environmental performance of this space.

Ownership, occupation and risk: a view of the City of London office market

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE-sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk in a market strongly influenced by the cyclical behaviour and shocks of the international financial system.

Achieving carbon reduction from listed buildings in the UK: A case study on The Royal Academy of Engineering, London

A carbon reduction strategy for a historic Grade 1 listed office building in London is presented. The study evaluates the impact of49 different carbon abatement options, quantified using building simulation software, auditing procedures and qualitative methods. The impact of each option is assessed against three criteria: carbon abatement potential, practicality and cost. The strategy comprises of18interventions,integrated within 12 key recommendations. Accumulative reduction of 37% (below a 2009 carbon emissions baseline)appears achievable and only feasible with heavy reliance on changes in occupant behaviour. This theme appears central in achieving realistic and significant carbon savings from listed buildings, where planning constraints relinquish potential for major building fabric alteration and renewable energy installations.

Decision making for HVAC&R system selection for a typical office building in the UK

Demands for thermal comfort, better indoor air quality together with lower environmental impacts have had ascending trends in the last decade. In many circumstances, these demands could not be fully covered through the soft approach of bioclimatic design like optimisation of the building orientation and internal layout. This is mostly because of the dense urban environment and building internal energy loads. In such cases, heating, ventilation, air-conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems make a key role to fulfill the requirements of indoor environment. Therefore, it is required to select the most proper HVAC&R system. In this study, a robust decision making approach for HVAC&R system selection is proposed. Technical performance, economic aspect and environmental impacts of 36 permutations of primary and secondary systems are taken into account to choose the most proper HVAC&R system for a case study office building. The building is a representative for the dominant form of office buildings in the UK. Dynamic performance evaluation of HVAC&R alternatives using TRNSYS package together with life cycle energy cost analysis provides a reliable basis for decision making. Six scenarios broadly cover the decision makers' attitudes on HVAC&R system selection which are analysed through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). One of the significant outcomes reveals that, despite both the higher energy demand and more investment requirements associated with compound heating, cooling and power system (CCHP); this system is one of the top ranked alternatives due to the lower energy cost and C02 emissions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that in all six scenarios, the first five top ranked alternatives are not changed. Finally, the proposed approach and the results could be used by researchers and designers especially in the early stages of a design process in which all involved bodies face the lack of time, information and tools for evaluation of a variety of systems.

Concordance in global office market cycles

A large proportion of international real estate investment is concentrated in the office markets of the world’s largest cities. However, many of these global cities are also key financial services centres, highlighting the possibility of reduced economic diversification from an investor’s perspective. This paper assesses the degree of synchronization in cycles across twenty of the world’s largest office markets, finding evidence of significant concordance across a large number of markets. The results highlight the problems associated with commonalities in the underlying economic bases of the markets. The concentration of investment also raises the possibility of common flow of funds effects that may further reduce diversification opportunities.

Capital market expectations and the London office market

The analysis of office market dynamics has generally concentrated on the impact of underlying fundamental demand and supply variables. This paper takes a slightly different approach to many previous examinations of rental dynamics. Within a Vector-Error-Correction framework the empirical analysis concentrates upon the impact of economic and financial variables on rents in the City of London and West End of London office markets. The impulse response and variance decomposition reveal that while lagged rental values and key demand drivers play a highly important role in the dynamics of rents, financial variables are also influential. Stock market performance not only influences the City of London market but also the West End, whilst the default spread plays an important role in recent years. It is argued that both series incorporate expectations about future economic performance and that this is the basis of their influence upon rental values.

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

The influence of office location on commuting behaviour

To fully appreciate the environmental impact of an office building, the transport-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from its location should be considered in addition to the emissions that result from the operation of the building itself. Travel-related CO2 emissions are a function of three criteria, two of which are influenced by physical location and one of which is a function of business practice. The two spatial criteria are, first, the location of the office relative to the location of the workforce, the market, complementary business activities (and the agglomeration benefits this offers) and, second, the availability and cost of transport modes. The business criterion is the need for, and therefore frequency of, visits and this, in turn, depends on the requirement for a physically present workforce and face-to-face contact with clients. This paper examines the commuting-related CO2 emissions that result from city centre and out-of-town office locations. Using 2001 Census Special Workplace Statistics which record people’s residence, usual workplace and mode of transport between them, distance travelled and mode of travel were calculated for a sample of city centre and out-of-town office locations. The results reveal the extent of the difference between transport-related CO2 emitted by commuters to out-of-town and city centre locations. The implications that these findings have for monitoring the environmental performance of offices are discussed.

An investigation of the effect of eco-labeling on office occupancy rates

This paper investigates the extent to which clients were able to influence performance measurement appraisals during the downturn in commercial property markets that began in the UK during the second half of 2007. The sharp change in market sentiment produced speculation that different client categories were attempting to influence their appraisers in different ways. In particular, it was recognised that the requirement for open-ended funds to meet redemptions gave them strong incentives to ensure that their asset values were marked down to market. Using data supplied by Investment Property Databank, we demonstrate that, indeed, unlisted open ended funds experienced sharper drops in capital values than other fund types in the second half of 2007, after the market turning point. These differences are statistically significant and cannot simply be explained by differences in portfolio composition. Client influence on appraisal forms one possible explanation of the results observed: the different pressures on fund managers resulting in different appraisal outcomes.