Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss

Since 2007 a large decline in Arctic sea ice has been observed. The large-scale atmospheric circulation response to this decline is investigated in ERA-Interim reanalyses and HadGEM3 climate model experiments. In winter, post-2007 observed circulation anomalies over the Arctic, North Atlantic and Eurasia are small compared to interannual variability. In summer, the post-2007 observed circulation is dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly over Greenland which has a large signal-to-noise ratio. Climate model experiments driven by observed SST and sea ice anomalies are able to capture the summertime pattern of observed circulation anomalies, although the magnitude is a third of that observed. The experiments suggest high SSTs and reduced sea ice in the Labrador Sea lead to positive temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere which weaken the westerlies over North America through thermal wind balance. The experiments also capture cyclonic anomalies over Northwest Europe, which are consistent with downstream Rossby wave propagation

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1–40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land–sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response.

The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO₂

In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the model-mean increase in global mean surface air temperature T under the 1pctCO2 scenario (atmospheric CO2 increasing at 1% yr−1) during the second doubling of CO2 is 40% larger than the transient climate response (TCR), i.e. the increase in T during the first doubling. We identify four possible contributory effects. First, the surface climate system loses heat less readily into the ocean beneath as the latter warms. The model spread in the thermal coupling between the upper and deep ocean largely explains the model spread in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Second, CO2 radiative forcing may rise more rapidly than logarithmically with CO2 concentration. Third, the climate feedback parameter may decline as the CO2 concentration rises. With CMIP5 data, we cannot distinguish the second and third possibilities. Fourth, the climate feedback parameter declines as time passes or T rises; in 1pctCO2, this effect is less important than the others. We find that T projected for the end of the twenty-first century correlates more highly with T at the time of quadrupled CO2 in 1pctCO2 than with the TCR, and we suggest that the TCR may be underestimated from observed climate change.

Seedling response to phosphate addition and inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizas and the implications for old-field restoration in Western Australia

We predicted that P-fertiliser residues will limit the establishment of native plant species and their mycorrhizas to old-fields in the wheat-growing region (i.e. the wheatbelt) of Western Australia. To test this prediction, we assessed the growth and P uptake of seedlings of three native plant species to phosphate addition and inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizas (AM) in a pot study. The native plant species were Acacia acuminata Benth. (Mimosaceae), Eucalyptus loxophleba Benth. subsp. loxophleba (Myrtaceae) and Hakea preissii Meisn. (Proteaceae); and each pot contained one seedling. P was added to field soil to mimic pre-agricultural (P0), old-field (P1) and 10 times old-field (P10) soils. AM inoculant, which was a mix of Scutellospora calospora (Nicolson and Gerdemann) Walker and Sanders, Glomus intraradices Schenck and Smith and Glomus mosseae (Nicolson and Gerdemann) Gerdemann and Trappe, was added to half of the pots. After 12 weeks, the biomass and P uptake of the mycorrhizal A. acuminata were greater than those of the non-mycorrhizal plants across all P treatments. Plant biomass decreased significantly with increasing P addition, yet this species was apparently unable to suppress its mycorrhizal colonisation at high P despite this reduction in growth. In contrast, mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal E. loxophleba subsp. loxophleba were of a similar biomass after 12 weeks; maximum biomass was attained at intermediate (old-field) levels of P. P uptake increased with increasing P supply, beyond that required to attain maximum biomass. AM did not form on H. preissii. P uptake increased with increasing P supply for this species also. Overall, it is the apparent inability of these species to down-regulate P uptake rather than a lack of mycorrhizal symbiosis that will constrain their establishment on wheatbelt old-fields.

Root distributions of Australian herbaceous perennial legumes in response to phosphorus placement

Many Australian plant species have specific root adaptations for growth in phosphorus-impoverished soils, and are often sensitive to high external P concentrations. The growth responses of native Australian legumes in agricultural soils with elevated P availability in the surface horizons are unknown. The aim of these experiments was to test the hypothesis that increased P concentration in surface soil would reduce root proliferation at depth in native legumes. The effect of P placement on root distribution was assessed for two Australian legumes, Kennedia prorepens F. Muell. and Lotus australis Andrews, and the exotic Medicago sativa L. Three treatments were established in a low-P loam soil: amendment of 0.15 g mono-calcium phosphate in either (i) the top 50 mm (120 µg P g–1) or (ii) the top 500 mm (12 µg P g–1) of soil, and an unamended control. In the unamended soil M. sativa was shallow rooted, with 58% of the root length of in the top 50 mm. K. prorepens and L. australis had a more even distribution down the pot length, with only 4 and 22% of their roots in the 0–50 mm pot section, respectively. When exposed to amendment of P in the top 50 mm, root length in the top 50 mm increased 4-fold for K. prorepens and 10-fold for M. sativa, although the pattern of root distribution did not change for M. sativa. L. australis was relatively unresponsive to P additions and had an even distribution of roots down the pot. Shoot P concentrations differed according to species but not treatment (K. prorepens 2.1 mg g–1, L. australis 2.4 mg g–1, M. sativa 3.2 mg g–1). Total shoot P content was higher for K. prorepens than for the other species in all treatments. In a second experiment, mono-ester phosphatases were analysed from 1-mm slices of soil collected directly adjacent to the rhizosphere. All species exuded phosphatases into the rhizosphere, but addition of P to soil reduced phosphatase activity only for K. prorepens. Overall, high P concentration in the surface soil altered root distribution, but did not reduce root proliferation at depth. Furthermore, the Australian herbaceous perennial legumes had root distributions that enhanced P acquisition from low-P soils.

Genome-wide association study of response to cognitive behavioural therapy in children with anxiety disorders

Background Anxiety disorders are common, and cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) is a first-line treatment. Candidate gene studies have suggested a genetic basis to treatment response, but findings have been inconsistent. Aims To perform the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) of psychological treatment response in children with anxiety disorders (n = 980). Method Presence and severity of anxiety was assessed using semi-structured interview at baseline, on completion of treatment (post-treatment), and 3 to 12 months after treatment completion (follow-up). DNA was genotyped using the Illumina Human Core Exome-12v1.0 array. Linear mixed models were used to test associations between genetic variants and response (change in symptom severity) immediately post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up. Results No variants passed a genome-wide significance threshold (P = 5×10−8) in either analysis. Four variants met criteria for suggestive significance (P<5×10−6) in association with response post-treatment, and three variants in the 6-month follow-up analysis. Conclusions This is the first genome-wide therapygenetic study. It suggests no common variants of very high effect underlie response to CBT. Future investigations should maximise power to detect single-variant and polygenic effects by using larger, more homogeneous cohorts.

Evaluation of a polynya flux model by means of thermal infrared satellite estimates

We test the ability of a two-dimensional flux model to simulate polynya events with narrow open-water zones by comparing model results to ice-thickness and ice-production estimates derived from thermal infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations in conjunction with an atmospheric dataset. Given a polynya boundary and an atmospheric dataset, the model correctly reproduces the shape of an 11 day long event, using only a few simple conservation laws. Ice production is slightly overestimated by the model, owing to an underestimated ice thickness. We achieved best model results with the consolidation thickness parameterization developed by Biggs and others (2000). Observed regional discrepancies between model and satellite estimates might be a consequence of the missing representation of the dynamic of the thin-ice thickening (e.g. rafting). We conclude that this simplified polynya model is a valuable tool for studying polynya dynamics and estimating associated fluxes of single polynya events.