Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere(-vegetation) simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). Here we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical regions during boreal summer and the change in precipitation in the northern part of the ITCZ. For both periods the shift is more pronounced over the continents and East Asia. The maritime continent is the region where the largest spread is found between models. We also clearly establish that the larger the increase in the meridional temperature gradient in the tropical Atlantic during summer at the MH, the larger the change in precipitation over West Africa. The vegetation feedback is however not as large as found in previous studies, probably due to model differences in the control simulation. Finally, we show that the feedback from snow and sea-ice at mid and high latitudes contributes for half of the cooling in the Northern Hemisphere for the LGM, with the remaining being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For the MH the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen the spring cooling and enhance the boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the Southern Hemisphere. For the LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: experiments and large-scale features

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.

Pollen-based reconstructions of Japanese biomes at 0, 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp

A biomization method, which objectively assigns individual pollen assemblages to biomes ( Prentice et al., 1996 ), was tested using modern pollen data from Japan and applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp Biomization started with the assignment of 135 pollen taxa to plant functional types (PFTs), and nine possible biomes were defined by specific combinations of PFTs. Biomes were correctly assigned to 54% of the 94 modern sites. Incorrect assignments occur near the altitudinal limits of individual biomes, where pollen transport from lower altitudes blurs the local pollen signals or continuous changes in species composition characterizes the range limits of biomes. As a result, the reconstructed changes in the altitudinal limits of biomes at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp are likely to be conservative estimates of the actual changes. The biome distribution at 6000 14C yr bp was rather similar to today, suggesting that changes in the bioclimate of Japan have been small since the mid-Holocene. At 18,000 14C yr bp the Japanese lowlands were covered by taiga and cool mixed forests. The southward expansion of these forests and the absence of broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forests reflect a pronounced year-round cooling.

Influence of UV radiation on chlorophyll, and antioxidant enzymes of wetland plants in different types of constructed wetland

A surface- and vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland were designed to study the response of chlorophyll and antioxidant enzymes to elevated UV radiation in three types of wetland plants (Canna indica, Phragmites austrail, and Typha augustifolia). Results showed that (1) chlorophyll content of C. indica, P. austrail, and T. augustifolia in the constructed wetland was significantly lower where UV radiation was increased by 10 and 20 % above ambient solar level than in treatment with ambient solar UV radiation (p < 0.05). (2) The malondialdehyde (MDA) content, guaiacol peroxidase (POD), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and catalase (CAT) activities of wetland plants increased with elevated UV radiation intensity. (3) The increased rate of MDA, SOD, POD, and CAT activities of C. indica, P. australis, and T. angustifolia by elevated UV radiation of 10 % was higher in vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland than in surface-flow-constructed wetland. The sensitivity of MDA, SOD, POD, and CAT activities of C. indica, P. austrail, and T. augustifolia to the elevated UV radiation was lower in surface-flow-constructed wetland than in the vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland, which was related to a reduction in UV radiation intensity through the dissolved organic carbon and suspended matter in the water. C. indica had the highest SOD and POD activities, which implied it is more sensitive to enhanced UV radiation. Therefore, different wetland plants had different antioxidant enzymes by elevated UV radiation, which were more sensitive in vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland than in surface-flow-constructed wetland.

A longitudinal study of carbon disclosure strategy: evidence from utility, energy and mining industries in the UK

The paper investigates how energy-intensive industries respond to the recent government-led carbon emission schemes through the content analysis of 306 annual and standalone reports of 25 UK listed companies from 2004 to 2012. This period of reporting captures the trend and development of corporate disclosures on carbon emissions after the launch of EU Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) and Climate Change Act (CCA) 2008. It is found that in corresponding to strategic legitimacy theory, there is an increase in both the quality and quantity of carbon disclosures as a response to these initiatives. However, the change is gradual, which reflects in the achievement of peak disclosure period two years after the launch. It indicates that the new legislations have a lasting impact on the discourses rather than an immediate legitimacy threat from the perspective of institutional legitimacy theory. The results also show that carbon disclosures are an institutionalised practice as companies in the same industries and/or with same carbon trading account status appear to imitate and adopt the industry’s ‘best practice’ disclosure strategy to maintain legitimacy. The trend analysis suggests that the overall disclosure practice is still in its infant stage, especially in the reporting of quantitative and monetary items. The paper contributes to the social and environmental accounting literature by adopting both strategic and institutional view of legitimacy, which explains why carbon disclosures evolve in a specific way to meet the expectation of various stakeholders.

Progress report on longitudinal and cross-sectional study of carbon disclosure strategies: evidence from UK listed companies

Global warming has attracted attention from all over the world and led to the concern about carbon emission. Kyoto Protocol, as the first major international regulatory emission trading scheme, was introduced in 1997 and outlined the strategies for reducing carbon emission (Ratnatunga et al., 2011). As the increased interest in carbon reduction the Protocol came into force in 2005, currently there are already 191 nations ratifying the Protocol(UNFCCC, 2012). Under the cap-and-trade schemes, each company has its carbon emission target. When company’s carbon emission exceeds the target the company will either face fines or buy emission allowance from other companies. Thus unlike most of the other social and environmental issues carbon emission could trigger cost for companies in introducing low-emission equipment and systems and also emission allowance cost when they emit more than their targets. Despite the importance of carbon emission to companies, carbon emission reporting is still operating under unregulated environment and companies are only required to disclose when it is material either in value or in substances (Miller, 2005, Deegan and Rankin, 1997). Even though there is still an increase in the volume of carbon emission disclosures in company’s financial reports and stand-alone social and environmental reports to show their concern of the environment and also their social responsibility (Peters and Romi, 2009), the motivations behind corporate carbon emission disclosures and whether carbon disclosures have impact on corporate environmental reputation and financial performance have not yet to explore. The problems with carbon emission lie on both the financial side and non-financial side of corporate governance. On one hand corporate needs to spend money in reducing carbon emission or paying penalties when they emit more than allowed. On the other hand as the public are more interested in environmental issues than before carbon emission could also impact on the image of corporate regarding to its environmental performance. The importance of carbon emission issue are beginning to be recognized by companies from different industries as one of the critical issues in supply chain management (Lee, 2011) and 80% of companies analysed are facing carbon risks resulting from emissions in the companies’ supply chain as shown in a study conducted by the Investor Responsibility Research Centre Institute for Corporate Responsibility (IRRCI) and over 80% of the companies analysed found that the majority of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission are from electricity and other direct suppliers (Trucost, 2009). The review of extant literature shows the increased importance of carbon emission issues and the gap in the study of carbon reporting and disclosures and also the study which links corporate environmental reputation and corporate financial performance with carbon reporting (Lohmann, 2009a, Ratnatunga and Balachandran, 2009, Bebbington and Larrinaga-Gonzalez, 2008). This study would focus on investigating the current status of UK carbon emission disclosures, the determinant factors of corporate carbon disclosure, and the relationship between carbon emission disclosures and corporate environmental reputation and financial performance of UK listed companies from 2004-2012 and explore the explanatory power of classical disclosure theories.

Urban microclimates and urban heat island in Chongqing, China

Chongqing is the largest directly-controlled municipality in China, which is now undergoing a rapid urbanization. The urbanization rate increased from 35.6% in 2000 to 48.3% in 2007, and it is estimated to reach at least 70% by 2020. The question remains open: What are the consequences of such rapid urbanization in Chongqing in terms of urban microclimate? Furthermore, Chongqing is located within the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region and the upper Yangtze River, where the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) project started in 1993 and was completed in 2010. As one of the biggest construction projects in the world with a rising water level of 175m and water storage capacity of about 39.3 billion m3, it would be interesting to investigate how such a gigantic project impacts the surrounding micro-environment, especially in Chongqing. Different research approaches are adopted in the study. Our literature review indicates present studies on the urban climate in Chongqing are mainly confined within the historical trend analysis of several weather stations operated by the Chongqing government, little is known about the spatial distribution of urban air temperature and how the local land cover influences the air temperature, especially when there are rivers running through the Chongqing urban area. To contribute to the present knowledge, a series of field measurement campaigns and numerical simulations were carried out. Two complementary types of field measurements are included: fixed weather stations and mobile transverse measurement. Numerical simulations using a house-developed program are able to predict the urban air temperature in Chongqing.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Association between Mediterranean and Nordic diet scores and changes in weight and waist circumference: influence of FTO and TCF7L2 loci

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that adherence to the Mediterranean Diet measured by using the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) is associated with lower obesity risk. The newly proposed Nordic Diet could hold similar beneficial effects. Because of the increasing focus on the interaction between diet and genetic predisposition to adiposity, studies should consider both diet and genetics. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether FTO rs9939609 and TCF7L2 rs7903146 modified the association between the MDS and Nordic diet score (NDS) and changes in weight (Δweight), waist circumference (ΔWC), and waist circumference adjusted for body mass index (BMI) (ΔWCBMI). DESIGN: We conducted a case-cohort study with a median follow-up of 6.8 y that included 11,048 participants from 5 European countries; 5552 of these subjects were cases defined as individuals with the greatest degree of unexplained weight gain during follow-up. A randomly selected subcohort included 6548 participants, including 5496 noncases. Cases and noncases were compared in analyses by using logistic regression. Continuous traits (ie, Δweight, ΔWC, and ΔWCBMI) were analyzed by using linear regression models in the random subcohort. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in models. RESULTS: A higher MDS was significantly inversely associated with case status (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00), ΔWC (β = -0.010 cm/y; 95% CI: -0.020, -0.001 cm/y), and ΔWCBMI (β = -0.008; 95% CI:-0.015, -0.001) per 1-point increment but not Δweight (P = 0.53). The NDS was not significantly associated with any outcome. There was a borderline significant interaction between the MDS and TCF7L2 rs7903146 on weight gain (P = 0.05), which suggested a beneficial effect of the MDS only in subjects who carried 1 or 2 risk alleles. FTO did not modify observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: A high MDS is associated with a lower ΔWC and ΔWCBMI, regardless of FTO and TCF7L2 risk alleles. For Δweight, findings were less clear, but the effect may depend on the TCF7L2 rs7903146 variant. The NDS was not associated with anthropometric changes during follow-up.

Drawing from development: towards unifying theory and development of ICT4D

Within the literature, many authors have argued that the rapid growth of the field of Information and Communication Technologies for Development (ICT4D) has resulted in an emphasis on the applications rather than on theory. However, it is clear that it is not theories, rather the integration of theory and practice, that is often lacking. To address this gap, the authors begin by exploring some of the popular theoretical approaches to ICT4D with a view to identifying those theories relevant to shared impacts: development, delivery and communication. To unify practice and theory, we offer a framework to directly assess the impact of ICT4D on development.

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng g−1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng g−1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g−1. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m−2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m−2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m−2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

Serotonin transporter [corrected] methylation and response to cognitive behaviour therapy in children with anxiety disorders

Anxiety disorders that are the most commonly occurring psychiatric disorders in childhood, are associated with a range of social and educational impairments and often continue into adulthood. Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment option for the majority of cases, although up to 35-45% of children do not achieve remission. Recent research suggests that some genetic variants may be associated with a more beneficial response to psychological therapy. Epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation work at the interface between genetic and environmental influences. Furthermore, epigenetic alterations at the serotonin transporter (SERT) promoter region have been associated with environmental influences such as stressful life experiences. In this study, we measured DNA methylation upstream of SERT in 116 children with an anxiety disorder, before and after receiving CBT. Change during treatment in percentage DNA methylation was significantly different in treatment responders vs nonresponders. This effect was driven by one CpG site in particular, at which responders increased in methylation, whereas nonresponders showed a decrease in DNA methylation. This is the first study to demonstrate differences in SERT methylation change in association with response to a purely psychological therapy. These findings confirm that biological changes occur alongside changes in symptomatology following a psychological therapy such as CBT.