119 resultados para Negative probability


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We describe the development of a miniaturised microarray for the detection of antimicrobial resistance genes in Gram-negative bacteria. Included on the array are genes encoding resistance to aminoglycosides, trimethoprim, sulphonamides, tetracyclines and beta-lactams, including extended-spectrum beta-lactamases. Validation of the array with control strains demonstrated a 99% correlation between polymerase chain reaction and array results. There was also good correlation between phenotypic and genotypic results for a large panel of Escherichia coli and Salmonella isolates. Some differences were also seen in the number and type of resistance genes harboured by E. coli and Salmonella strains. The array provides an effective, fast and simple method for detection of resistance genes in clinical isolates suitable for use in diagnostic laboratories, which in future will help to understand the epidemiology of isolates and to detect gene linkage in bacterial populations. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy.

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The central role of immune-receptorlike signaling mechanisms in the activation of platelets at sites of vascular injury is well established. Of equal importance to the regulatory systems that control the activation of platelets are those systems that negatively regulate platelets and thereby prevent inappropriate platelet activation and thrombosis. Recent reports have identified a new mechanism through which this may be achieved, which involves signaling via a receptor that contains an immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motif (ITIM). The role of ITIMs in the control of platelet function is the subject of this review.

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References (20)Cited By (1)Export CitationAboutAbstract Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.

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The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is a frequently used scoring rule. In contrast with many other scoring rules, the CRPS evaluates cumulative distribution functions. An ensemble of forecasts can easily be converted into a piecewise constant cumulative distribution function with steps at the ensemble members. This renders the CRPS a convenient scoring rule for the evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles, obviating the need for sophisticated ensemble model output statistics or dressing methods prior to evaluation. In this article, a relation between the CRPS score and the quantile score is established. The evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles using the CRPS is discussed in this light. It is shown that latent in this evaluation is an interpretation of the ensemble as quantiles but with non-uniform levels. This needs to be taken into account if the ensemble is evaluated further, for example with rank histograms.

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The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection in birds is low but several deliberate inoculation studies show that poultry are readily and persistently infected by this organism indicating a possible threat to public health. The mechanisms of colonisation of poultry are not understood and the aim is to establish models to study the interaction of E. coli O157:H7, at the cellular and whole animal levels. A non-toxigenic E. coli O157:H7 (NCTC 12900) was used in adherence assays with an avian epithelial cell line (Div-1) and used to inoculate 1-day-old SPF chicks. In vitro, NCTC 12900 induced micro-colonies associated with cytoskeletal arrangements and pedestal formation with intimate bacterial attachment. In the 1-day-old SPF chick, a dose of 1 x 10(5) cfu resulted in rapid and extensive colonisation of the gastrointestinal tract and transient colonisation of the liver and spleen. The number of E. coli O157:H7 organisms attained approximately 10(8) cfu/ml caecal homogenate 24 h after inoculation and approximately 10(7) cfu/ml caecal homogenate was still present at day 92. Faecal shedding persisted for 169 days, ceasing 9 days after the birds came into lay and 6% of eggs were contaminated on the eggshell. Histological analysis of tissue samples from birds dosed with 1 x 10(7) cfu gave evidence for E coli O157:H7 NCTC 12900 induced micro-colonies on the caecal mucosa, although evidence for attaching effacing lesions was equivocal. These models may be suitable to study those factors of E. coli O157:H7 that mediate persistent colonisation in avian species.

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Shiga toxin (Stx)-positive Escherichia coli O157:117 readily colonize and persist in specific-pathogen-free (SPF) chicks, and we have shown that an Stx-negative E. coli O157:117 isolate (NCTC12900) readily colonizes SPF chicks for up to 169 days after oral inoculation at 1 day of age. However, the role of intimin in the persistent colonization of poultry remains unclear. Thus, to investigate the role of intimin and flagella, which is a known factor in the persistence of non-O157 E. coli in poultry, isogenic single- and double-intimin and aflagellar mutants were constructed in E. coli O157:117 isolate NCTC12900. These mutants were used to inoculate (10(5) CFU) 1-day-old SPF chicks. In general, significant attenuation of the aflagellate and intiminaflagellate mutants, but not the intimin mutant, was noted at similar time points between 22 and 92 days after inoculation. The intimin-deficient mutant was still being shed at the end of the experiment, which was 211 days after inoculation, 84 days more than the wild type. Shedding of the aflagellar and intimin-aflagellar mutants ceased 99 and 113 days after inoculation, respectively. Histological analysis of gastrointestinal tissues from inoculated birds gave no evidence for true microcolony formation by NCTC12900 or intimin and aflagellar mutants to epithelial cells. However, NCTC12900 mutant derivatives associated with the mucosa were observed as individual cells and/or as large aggregates. Association with luminal contents was also noted. These data suggest that O157 organisms do not require intimin for the persistent colonization of chickens, whereas flagella do play a role in this process.

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Isolation of Shiga-toxin (Stx) positive Escherichia coli O157:H7 from commercially grown pigs has been reported. Furthermore, experimental infection studies have demonstrated that Stx-positive E. coli O157:H7 can persist in 12-week-old experimentally orally inoculated conventional pigs for up to 2 months and that persistence was not dependent upon intimin. We have shown that the flagellum of Stx-negative E. coli O157:H7 does not have a role to play in pathogenesis in ruminant models whereas, in poultry, the flagellum of E. coli O157:H7 was important for long-term persistent infection. The contribution of the flagellum of Stx-negative E. coli O157 in the colonisation of pigs was investigated by adherence assays on a porcine (IPI-21) cell line, porcine in vitro organ culture (IVOC) and experimental oral inoculation of conventional 14-week-old pigs. E. coli O157:H7 NCTC12900nal(r) and isogenic aflagellate and intimin deficient mutants adhered equally well to IPI-21 cells. In porcine IVOC association assays, E. coli O157:H7 NCTC12900nal(r) was associated in significantly higher numbers to tissues from the caecum and the terminal rectum than other sites. The aflagellate and intimin deficient mutants significantly adhered in greater numbers to more IVOC gastrointestinal tissues than the parent. Groups of 14-week-old pigs were dosed orally with 10(10) CFU/10 ml of either E. coli O157:H7 NCTC12900nal(r) or isogenic aflagellate and intimin deficient mutants and recovery of each test strain was similar. Histological analysis of pig tissues at post mortem examination revealed that E. coli O157 specifically stained bacteria were associated with the mucosa of the ascending and spiral colon. These data suggest that colonisation and persistence of Stx-negative E. coli O157:H7 in pigs, involves mechanisms that do not require the flagellum or intimin.

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In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

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MICALs (molecules interacting with CasL) are atypical multidomain flavoenzymes with diverse cellular functions. The molecular pathways employed by MICAL proteins to exert their cellular effects remain largely uncharacterized. Via an unbiased proteomics approach, we identify MICAL-1 as a binding partner of NDR (nuclear Dbf2-related) kinases. NDR1/2 kinases are known to mediate apoptosis downstream of the mammalian Ste-20-like kinase MST1, and ablation of NDR1 in mice predisposes the mice to cancer as a result of compromised apoptosis. MST1 phosphorylates NDR1/2 kinases at their hydrophobic motif, thereby facilitating full NDR kinase activity and function. However, if and how this key phosphorylation event is regulated are unknown. Here we show that MICAL-1 interacts with the hydrophobic motif of NDR1/2 and that overexpression or knockdown of MICAL-1 reduces or augments NDR kinase activation or activity, respectively. Surprisingly, MICAL-1 is a phosphoprotein but not an NDR or MST1 substrate. Rather, MICAL-1 competes with MST1 for NDR binding and thereby antagonizes MST1-induced NDR activation. In line with this inhibitory effect, overexpression or knockdown of MICAL-1 inhibits or enhances, respectively, NDR-dependent proapoptotic signaling induced by extrinsic stimuli. Our findings unveil a previously unknown biological role for MICAL-1 in apoptosis and define a novel negative regulatory mechanism of MST-NDR signaling.

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Secular trends of daily precipitation characteristics are considered in the transient climate change experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 for 1900-2099. The climate forcing is due to increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mean daily precipitation, precipitation intensity, probability of wet days and parameters of the gamma distribution are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the changes of heavy precipitation, Analysis of the annual mean precipitation trends for 1900-1999 revealed general agreement with observations with significant positive trends in mean precipitation over continental areas. In the 2000-2099 period precipitation trend patterns followed the tendency obtained for 1900-1999 but with significantly increased magnitudes. Unlike the annual mean precipitation trends for which negative values were found for some continental areas, the mean precipitation intensity and scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution increased over all land territories . Negative trends in the number of wet days were found over most of the land areas except high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The shape parameter of the gamma distribution in general revealed a slight negative trend in the areas of the precipitation increase. Investigation of daily precipitation revealed an unproportional increase of heavy precipitation events for the land areas including local maxima in Europe and the eastern United States.

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We consider an equilibrium birth and death type process for a particle system in infinite volume, the latter is described by the space of all locally finite point configurations on Rd. These Glauber type dynamics are Markov processes constructed for pre-given reversible measures. A representation for the ``carré du champ'' and ``second carré du champ'' for the associate infinitesimal generators L are calculated in infinite volume and for a large class of functions in a generalized sense. The corresponding coercivity identity is derived and explicit sufficient conditions for the appearance and bounds for the size of the spectral gap of L are given. These techniques are applied to Glauber dynamics associated to Gibbs measure and conditions are derived extending all previous known results and, in particular, potentials with negative parts can now be treated. The high temperature regime is extended essentially and potentials with non-trivial negative part can be included. Furthermore, a special class of potentials is defined for which the size of the spectral gap is as least as large as for the free system and, surprisingly, the spectral gap is independent of the activity. This type of potentials should not show any phase transition for a given temperature at any activity.

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We develop a new sparse kernel density estimator using a forward constrained regression framework, within which the nonnegative and summing-to-unity constraints of the mixing weights can easily be satisfied. Our main contribution is to derive a recursive algorithm to select significant kernels one at time based on the minimum integrated square error (MISE) criterion for both the selection of kernels and the estimation of mixing weights. The proposed approach is simple to implement and the associated computational cost is very low. Specifically, the complexity of our algorithm is in the order of the number of training data N, which is much lower than the order of N2 offered by the best existing sparse kernel density estimators. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with comparable accuracy to those of the classical Parzen window estimate and other existing sparse kernel density estimators.

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Context: Emotion regulation is critically disrupted in depression and use of paradigms tapping these processes may uncover essential changes in neurobiology during treatment. In addition, as neuroimaging outcome studies of depression commonly utilize solely baseline and endpoint data – which is more prone to week-to week noise in symptomatology – we sought to use all data points over the course of a six month trial. Objective: To examine changes in neurobiology resulting from successful treatment. Design: Double-blind trial examining changes in the neural circuits involved in emotion regulation resulting from one of two antidepressant treatments over a six month trial. Participants were scanned pretreatment, at 2 months and 6 months posttreatment. Setting: University functional magnetic resonance imaging facility. Participants: 21 patients with Major Depressive Disorder and without other Axis I or Axis II diagnoses and 14 healthy controls. Interventions: Venlafaxine XR (doses up to 300mg) or Fluoxetine (doses up to 80mg). Main Outcome Measure: Neural activity, as measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging during performance of an emotion regulation paradigm as well as regular assessments of symptom severity by the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression. To utilize all data points, slope trajectories were calculated for rate of change in depression severity as well as rate of change of neural engagement. Results: Those depressed individuals showing the steepest decrease in depression severity over the six months were those individuals showing the most rapid increases in BA10 and right DLPFC activity when regulating negative affect over the same time frame. This relationship was more robust than when using solely the baseline and endpoint data. Conclusions: Changes in PFC engagement when regulating negative affect correlate with changes in depression severity over six months. These results are buttressed by calculating these statistics which are more reliable and robust to week-to-week variation than difference scores.