A time-series method to identify and correct range sidelobes in meteorological radar data

The use of pulse compression techniques to improve the sensitivity of meteorological radars has become increasingly common in recent years. An unavoidable side-effect of such techniques is the formation of ‘range sidelobes’ which lead to spreading of information across several range gates. These artefacts are particularly troublesome in regions where there is a sharp gradient in the power backscattered to the antenna as a function of range. In this article we present a simple method for identifying and correcting range sidelobe artefacts. We make use of the fact that meteorological targets produce an echo which fluctuates at random, and that this echo, like a fingerprint, is unique to each range gate. By cross-correlating the echo time series from pairs of gates therefore we can identify whether information from one gate has spread into another, and hence flag regions of contamination. In addition we show that the correlation coefficients contain quantitative information about the fraction of power leaked from one range gate to another, and we propose a simple algorithm to correct the corrupted reflectivity profile.

Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Note: Active optical detection of cloud from a balloon platform

A disposable backscatter instrument is described for optical detection of cloud in the atmosphere from a balloon-carried platform. It uses an ultra-bright light emitting diode (LED) illumination source with a photodiode detector. Scattering of the LED light by cloud droplets generates a small optical signal which is separated from background light fluctuations using a lock-in technique. The signal to noise obtained permits cloud detection using the scattered LED light, even in daytime. The response is interpreted in terms of the equivalent visual range within the cloud. The device is lightweight (150 g) and low power (∼30 mA), for use alongside a conventional meteorological radiosonde.

The SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone climatologies from limb-viewing instruments and the nadir-viewing Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300–70 hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a “zonal mean” ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p ≤ 100 hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of <15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

Meteorological factors controlling low-level continental pollutant outflow across a coast

Coastal outflow describes the horizontal advection of pollutants from the continental boundary layer across a coastline into a layer above the marine boundary layer. This process can ventilate polluted continental boundary layers and thus regulate air quality in highly populated coastal regions. This paper investigates the factors controlling coastal outflow and quantifies its importance as a ventilation mechanism. Tracers in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are used to examine the magnitude and variability of coastal outflow over the eastern United States for a 4 week period during summer 2004. Over the 4 week period, ventilation of tracer from the continental boundary layer via coastal outflow occurs with the same magnitude as vertical ventilation via convection and advection. The relative importance of tracer decay rate, cross-coastal advection rate, and a parameter based on the relative continental and marine boundary layer heights, on coastal outflow is assessed by reducing the problem to a time-dependent box-model. The ratio of the advection rate and decay rate is a dimensionless parameter which determines whether tracers are long-lived or short-lived. Long- and short-lived tracers exhibit different behaviours with respect to coastal outflow. For short-lived tracers, increasing the advection rate increases the diurnally averaged magnitude of coastal outflow, but has the opposite effect for very long-lived tracers. Short-lived tracers exhibit large diurnal variability in coastal outflow but long-lived tracers do not. By combining the MetUM and box-model simulations a landwidth is determined which represents the distance inland over which emissions contribute significantly to coastal outflow. A landwidth of between 100 and 400 km is found to be representative for a tracer with a lifetime of 24 h.

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set has been generated using the same methodology as the widely used WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) by making use of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We discuss the specifics of how changes in the reanalysis and processing have led to improvement over the WFD. We attribute improvements in precipitation and wind speed to the latest reanalysis basis data and improved downward shortwave fluxes to the changes in the aerosol corrections. Covering 1979–2012, the WFDEI will allow more thorough comparisons of hydrological and Earth System model outputs with hydrologically and phenologically relevant satellite products than using the WFD.

Meteorological forcing data for urban outdoor thermal comfort models from a coupled convective boundary layer and surface energy balance scheme

Site-specific meteorological forcing appropriate for applications such as urban outdoor thermal comfort simulations can be obtained using a newly coupled scheme that combines a simple slab convective boundary layer (CBL) model and urban land surface model (ULSM) (here two ULSMs are considered). The former simulates daytime CBL height, air temperature and humidity, and the latter estimates urban surface energy and water balance fluxes accounting for changes in land surface cover. The coupled models are tested at a suburban site and two rural sites, one irrigated and one unirrigated grass, in Sacramento, U.S.A. All the variables modelled compare well to measurements (e.g. coefficient of determination = 0.97 and root mean square error = 1.5 °C for air temperature). The current version is applicable to daytime conditions and needs initial state conditions for the CBL model in the appropriate range to obtain the required performance. The coupled model allows routine observations from distant sites (e.g. rural, airport) to be used to predict air temperature and relative humidity in an urban area of interest. This simple model, which can be rapidly applied, could provide urban data for applications such as air quality forecasting and building energy modelling, in addition to outdoor thermal comfort.

Location and characteristics of the reconnection X line deduced from low-altitude satellite and ground-based observations: 2. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program and European Incoherent Scatter data

We present an analysis of a cusp ion step, observed by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F10 spacecraft, between two poleward moving events of enhanced ionospheric electron temperature, observed by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar. From the ions detected by the satellite, the variation of the reconnection rate is computed for assumed distances along the open-closed field line separatrix from the satellite to the X line, do. Comparison with the onset times of the associated ionospheric events allows this distance to be estimated, but with an uncertainty due to the determination of the low-energy cutoff of the ion velocity distribution function, ƒ(ν). Nevertheless, the reconnection site is shown to be on the dayside magnetopause, consistent with the reconnection model of the cusp during southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Analysis of the time series of distribution function at constant energies, ƒ(ts), shows that the best estimate of the distance do is 14.5±2 RE. This is consistent with various magnetopause observations of the signatures of reconnection for southward IMF. The ion precipitation is used to reconstruct the field-parallel part of the Cowley D ion distribution function injected into the open low-latitude boundary layer in the vicinity of the X line. From this reconstruction, the field-aligned component of the magnetosheath flow is found to be only −55±65 km s−1 near the X line, which means either that the reconnection X line is near the stagnation region at the nose of the magnetosphere, or that it is closely aligned with the magnetosheath flow streamline which is orthogonal to the magnetosheath field, or both. In addition, the sheath Alfvén speed at the X line is found to be 220±45 km s−1, and the speed with which newly opened field lines are ejected from the X line is 165±30 km s−1. We show that the inferred magnetic field, plasma density, and temperature of the sheath near the X line are consistent with a near-subsolar reconnection site and confirm that the magnetosheath field makes a large angle (>58°) with the X line.

HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Detection of recent changes in climate using meteorological data from south-eastern Bangladesh

Analysis of meteorological records from four stations (Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Rangamati, Sitakunda) in south-eastern Bangladesh show coherent changes in climate over the past three decades. Mean maximum daily temperatures have increased between 1980 and 2013 by ca. 0.4 to 0.6°C per decade, with changes of comparable magnitude in individual seasons. The increase in mean maximum daily temperature is associated with decreased cloud cover and wind speed, particularly in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. During these two seasons, the correlation between changes in maximum temperature and clouds is between -0.5 and -0.7; the correlation with wind speed is weaker although similar values are obtained in some seasons. Changes in mean daily minimum (and hence mean) temperature differ between the northern and southern part of the basin: northern stations show a decrease in mean daily minimum temperature during the post-monsoon season of between 0.2 and 0.5°C per decade while southern stations show an increase of ca. 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. In contrast to the significant changes in temperature, there is no trend in mean or total precipitation at any station. However, there is a significant increase in the number of rain days at the northern sites during the monsoon season, with an increase per decade of 3 days in Sitakunda and 7 days at Rangamati. These climate changes could have a significant impact on the hydrology of the Halda Basin, which supplies water to Chittagong and is the major pisciculture centre in Bangladesh.

A variational approach to retrieve rain rate by combining information from rain gauges, radars, and microwave links

Accurate and reliable rain rate estimates are important for various hydrometeorological applications. Consequently, rain sensors of different types have been deployed in many regions. In this work, measurements from different instruments, namely, rain gauge, weather radar, and microwave link, are combined for the first time to estimate with greater accuracy the spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall. The objective is to retrieve the rain rate that is consistent with all these measurements while incorporating the uncertainty associated with the different sources of information. Assuming the problem is not strongly nonlinear, a variational approach is implemented and the Gauss–Newton method is used to minimize the cost function containing proper error estimates from all sensors. Furthermore, the method can be flexibly adapted to additional data sources. The proposed approach is tested using data from 14 rain gauges and 14 operational microwave links located in the Zürich area (Switzerland) to correct the prior rain rate provided by the operational radar rain product from the Swiss meteorological service (MeteoSwiss). A cross-validation approach demonstrates the improvement of rain rate estimates when assimilating rain gauge and microwave link information.

JOYCE: Jülich Observatory for cloud evolution

The Jülich Observatory for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), located at Forschungszentrum Jülich in the most western part of Germany, is a recently established platform for cloud research. The main objective of JOYCE is to provide observations, which improve our understanding of the cloudy boundary layer in a midlatitude environment. Continuous and temporally highly resolved measurements that are specifically suited to characterize the diurnal cycle of water vapor, stability, and turbulence in the lower troposphere are performed with a special focus on atmosphere–surface interaction. In addition, instruments are set up to measure the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds in detail and how they interact with different boundary layer processes and the large-scale synoptic situation. For this, JOYCE is equipped with an array of state-of-the-art active and passive remote sensing and in situ instruments, which are briefly described in this scientific overview. As an example, a 24-h time series of the evolution of a typical cumulus cloud-topped boundary layer is analyzed with respect to stability, turbulence, and cloud properties. Additionally, we present longer-term statistics, which can be used to elucidate the diurnal cycle of water vapor, drizzle formation through autoconversion, and warm versus cold rain precipitation formation. Both case studies and long-term observations are important for improving the representation of clouds in climate and numerical weather prediction models.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

Evaluation of sensor configurations for robotic surgical instruments

Designing surgical instruments for robotic-assisted minimally-invasive surgery (RAMIS) is challenging due to constraints on the number and type of sensors imposed by considerations such as space or the need for sterilization. A new method for evaluating the usability of virtual teleoperated surgical instruments based on virtual sensors is presented. This method uses virtual prototyping of the surgical instrument with a dual physical interaction, which allows testing of different sensor configurations in a real environment. Moreover, the proposed approach has been applied to the evaluation of prototypes of a two-finger grasper for lump detection by remote pinching. In this example, the usability of a set of five different sensor configurations, with a different number of force sensors, is evaluated in terms of quantitative and qualitative measures in clinical experiments with 23 volunteers. As a result, the smallest number of force sensors needed in the surgical instrument that ensures the usability of the device can be determined. The details of the experimental setup are also included.