Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales?

The ability of the HiGEM climate model to represent high-impact, regional, precipitation events is investigated in two ways. The first focusses on a case study of extreme regional accumulation of precipitation during the passage of a summer extra-tropical cyclone across southern England on 20 July 2007 that resulted in a national flooding emergency. The climate model is compared with a global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and higher resolution, nested limited area models. While the climate model does not simulate the timing and location of the cyclone and associated precipitation as accurately as the NWP simulations, the total accumulated precipitation in all models is similar to the rain gauge estimate across England and Wales. The regional accumulation over the event is insensitive to horizontal resolution for grid spacings ranging from 90km to 4km. Secondly, the free-running climate model reproduces the statistical distribution of daily precipitation accumulations observed in the England-Wales precipitation record. The model distribution diverges increasingly from the record for longer accumulation periods with a consistent under-representation of more intense multi-day accumulations. This may indicate a lack of low-frequency variability associated with weather regime persistence. Despite this, the overall seasonal and annual precipitation totals from the model are still comparable to those from ERA-Interim.

Influence of short-term solar disturbances on the fair weather conduction current

The fair weather atmospheric electrical current (Jz) couples the ionosphere to the lower atmosphere and thus provides a route by which changes in solar activity can modify processes in the lower troposphere. This paper examines the temporal variations and spectral characteristics of continuous measurements of Jz conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30°35′ N, 34°45′ E), during two large CMEs, and during periods of increased solar wind density. Evidence is presented for the effects of geomagnetic storms and sub-storms on low latitude Jz during two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), on 24–25th October 2011 and 7–8th March 2012, when the variability in Jz increased by an order of magnitude compared to normal fair weather conditions. The dynamic spectrum of the increased Jz fluctuations exhibit peaks in the Pc5 frequency range. Similar low frequency characteristics occur during periods of enhanced solar wind proton density. During the October 2011 event, the periods of increased fluctuations in Jz lasted for 7 h and coincided with fluctuations of the inter-planetary magnetic field (IMF) detected by the ACE satellite. We suggest downward mapping of ionospheric electric fields as a possible mechanism for the increased fluctuations.

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Dynamic response times of electrorheological fluids in steady shear

Transient responses of electrorheological fluids to square-wave electric fields in steady shear are investigated by computational simulation method. The structure responses of the fluids to the field with high frequency are found to be very similar to that to the field with very low frequency or the sudden applied direct current field. The stress rise processes are also similar in both cases and can be described by an exponential expression. The characteristic time tau of the stress response is found to decrease with the increase of the shear rate (gamma) over dot and the area fraction of the particles phi(2). The relation between them can be roughly expressed as tau proportional to(gamma) over dot(-3/4)phi(2)(-3/2). The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements. The aggregation kinetics of the particles in steady shear is also discussed according to these results.

Influence of inherent structure shear stress of supercooled liquids on their shear moduli

Configurations of supercooled liquids residing in their local potential minimum (i.e. in their inherent structure, IS) were found to support a non-zero shear stress. This IS stress was attributed to the constraint to the energy minimization imposed by boundary conditions, which keep size and shape of the simulation cell fixed. In this paper we further investigate the influence of these boundary conditions on the IS stress. We investigate its importance for the computation of the low frequency shear modulus of a glass obtaining a consistent picture for the low- and high frequency shear moduli over the full temperature range. Hence, we find that the IS stress corresponds to a non-thermal contribution to the fluctuation term in the Born-Green expression. This leads to an unphysical divergence of the moduli in the low temperature limit if no proper correction for this term is applied. Furthermore, we clarify the IS stress dependence on the system size and put its origin on a more formal basis.

Intensified anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific during El Niño decaying summer under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

It has been well documented that there is an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific (WNPAC, hereafter) during El Niño decaying summer. This El Niño-WNPAC relationship is greatly useful for the seasonal prediction of summer climate in the WNP and East Asia. In this study, we investigate the modification of the El Niño-WNPAC relationship induced by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the WNPAC during the El Niño decaying summer, as well as the associated precipitation anomaly over the WNP, is intensified under the weakened THC. On the one hand, this intensification is in response to the increased amplitude and frequency of El Niño events in the water-hosing experiment. On the other hand, this intensification is also because of greater climatological humidity over the western to central North Pacific under the weakened THC. We suggest that the increase of climatological humidity over the western to central North Pacific during summer under the weakened THC is favorable for enhanced interannual variability of precipitation, and therefore favorable for the intensification of the WNPAC during El Niño decaying summer. This study suggests a possible modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation-WNP summer monsoon relationship by the low-frequency fluctuation of Atlantic sea surface temperature. The results offer an explanation for the observed modification of the multidecadal fluctuation of El Niño-WNPAC relationship by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

The role of copper in the thermal conductivity of thermoelectric oxychalcogenides: do lone pairs matter?

Understanding the underlying mechanisms that suppress thermal conduction in solids is of paramount importance for the targeted design of materials for thermal management and thermoelectric energy conversion applications. Bismuth copper oxychalcogenides, BiOCuQ (Q = Se, Te), are highly crystalline thermoelectric materials with an unusually low lattice thermal conductivity of approx. 0.5 Wm-1K-1, a value normally found in amorphous materials. Here we unveil the origin of the unusual thermal transport properties of these phases. First principles calculations of the vibrational properties combined with analysis of in-situ neutron diffraction data, demonstrate that weak bonding of copper atoms within the structure leads to an unexpected vibrational mode at low frequencies, which is likely to be a major contributor to the low thermal conductivity of these materials. In addition, we show that anharmonicity and the large Grüneisen parameter in these oxychalcogenides are mainly related to the low frequency copper vibrations, rather than to the Bi3+ lone pairs.

Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.

Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of nonoceanic drivers

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

Genetic diversity at the Dhn3 locus in Turkish Hordeum spontaneum populations with comparative structural analyses

We analysed Hordeum spontaneum accessions from 21 different locations to understand the genetic diversity of HsDhn3 alleles and effects of single base mutations on the intrinsically disordered structure of the resulting polypeptide (HsDHN3). HsDHN3 was found to be YSK2-type with a low-frequency 6-aa deletion in the beginning of Exon 1. There is relatively high diversity in the intron region of HsDhn3 compared to the two exon regions. We have found subtle differences in K segments led to changes in amino acids chemical properties. Predictions for protein interaction profiles suggest the presence of a protein-binding site in HsDHN3 that coincides with the K1 segment. Comparison of DHN3 to closely related cereals showed that all of them contain a nuclear localization signal sequence flanking to the K1 segment and a novel conserved region located between the S and K1 segments [E(D/T)DGMGGR]. We found that H. vulgare, H. spontaneum, and Triticum urartu DHN3s have a greater number of phosphorylation sites for protein kinase C than other cereal species, which may be related to stress adaptation. Our results show that the nature and extent of mutations in the conserved segments of K1 and K2 are likely to be key factors in protection of cells.