A parallel formulation for the simulation of a generic branch predictor

A parallel formulation for the simulation of a branch prediction algorithm is presented. This parallel formulation identifies independent tasks in the algorithm which can be executed concurrently. The parallel implementation is based on the multithreading model and two parallel programming platforms: pthreads and Cilk++. Improvement in execution performance by up to 7 times is observed for a generic 2-bit predictor in a 12-core multiprocessor system.

Massive Open Online Courses and sustainability

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become very popular among learners millions of users from around the world registered with leading platforms. There are hundreds of universities (and other organizations) offering MOOCs. However, sustainability of MOOCs is a pressing concern as MOOCs incur up front creation costs, maintenance costs to keep content relevant and on-going support costs to provide facilitation while a course is being run. At present, charging a fee for certification (for example Coursera Signature Track and FutureLearn Statement of Completion) seems a popular business model. In this paper, the authors discuss other possible business models and their pros and cons. Some business models discussed here are: Freemium model – providing content freely but charging for premium services such as course support, tutoring and proctored exams. Sponsorships – courses can be created in collaboration with industry where industry sponsorships are used to cover the costs of course production and offering. For example Teaching Computing course was offered by the University of East Anglia on the FutureLearn platform with the sponsorship from British Telecom while the UK Government sponsored the course Introduction to Cyber Security offered by the Open University on FutureLearn. Initiatives and Grants – The government, EU commission or corporations could commission the creation of courses through grants and initiatives according to the skills gap identified for the economy. For example, the UK Government’s National Cyber Security Programme has supported a course on Cyber Security. Similar initiatives could also provide funding to support relevant course development and offering. Donations – Free software, Wikipedia and early OER initiatives such as the MIT OpenCourseware accept donations from the public and this could well be used as a business model where learners could contribute (if they wish) to the maintenance and facilitation of a course. Merchandise – selling merchandise could also bring revenue to MOOCs. As many participants do not seek formal recognition (European Commission, 2014) for their completion of a MOOC, merchandise that presents their achievement in a playful way could well be attractive for them. Sale of supplementary material –supplementary course material in the form of an online or physical book or similar could be sold with the revenue being reinvested in the course delivery. Selective advertising – courses could have advertisements relevant to learners Data sharing – though a controversial topic, sharing learner data with relevant employers or similar could be another revenue model for MOOCs. Follow on events – the courses could lead to follow on summer schools, courses or other real-life or online events that are paid-for in which case a percentage of the revenue could be passed on to the MOOC for its upkeep. Though these models are all possible ways of generating revenue for MOOCs, some are more controversial and sensitive than others. Nevertheless unless appropriate business models are identified the sustainability of MOOCs would be problematic.

Spatial variability of liquid cloud and rain: observations and microphysical effects

Spatial variability of liquid cloud water content and rainwater content is analysed from three different observational platforms: in situ measurements from research aircraft, land-based remote sensing techniques using radar and lidar, and spaceborne remote sensing from CloudSat. The variance is found to increase with spatial scale, but also depends strongly on the cloud or rain fraction regime, with overcast regions containing less variability than broken cloud fields. This variability is shown to lead to large biases, up to a factor of 4, in both the autoconversion and accretion rates estimated at a model grid scale of ≈40 km by a typical microphysical parametrization using in-cloud mean values. A parametrization for the subgrid variability of liquid cloud and rainwater content is developed, based on the observations, which varies with both the grid scale and cloud or rain fraction, and is applicable for all model grid scales. It is then shown that if this parametrization of the variability is analytically incorporated into the autoconversion and accretion rate calculations, the bias is significantly reduced.

The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.

Design patterns for promoting peer interaction in discussion forums in MOOCs

Design patterns are a way of sharing evidence-based solutions to educational design problems. The design patterns presented in this paper were produced through a series of workshops, which aimed to identify Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) design principles from workshop participants’ experiences of designing, teaching and learning on these courses. MOOCs present a challenge for the existing pedagogy of online learning, particularly as it relates to promoting peer interaction and discussion. MOOC cohort sizes, participation patterns and diversity of learners mean that discussions can remain superficial, become difficult to navigate, or never develop beyond isolated posts. In addition, MOOC platforms may not provide sufficient tools to support moderation. This paper draws on four case studies of designing and teaching on a range of MOOCs presenting seven design narratives relating to the experience in these MOOCs. Evidence presented in the narratives is abstracted in the form of three design patterns created through a collaborative process using techniques similar to those used in collective autoethnography. The patterns: “Special Interest Discussions”, “Celebrity Touch” and “Look and Engage”, draw together shared lessons and present possible solutions to the problem of creating, managing and facilitating meaningful discussion in MOOCs through the careful use of staged learning activities and facilitation strategies.

Urban-scale Environmental Prediction Systems

Weather, climate, water and related environmental conditions, including air quality, all have profound effects on cities. A growing importance is being attached to understanding and predicting atmospheric conditions and their interactions with other components of the Earth System in cities, at multiple scales. We highlight the need for: (1) development of high-resolution coupled environmental prediction models that include realistic city-specific processes, boundary conditions and fluxes; (2) enhanced observational systems to support (force, constrain, evaluate) these models to provide high quality forecasts for new urban services; (3) provision of meteorological and related environmental variables to aid protection of human health and the environment; (4) new targeted and customized delivery platforms using modern communication techniques, developed with users to ensure that services, advice and warnings result in appropriate action; and (5) development of new skill and capacity to make best use of technologies to deliver new services in complex, challenging and evolving city environments. We highlight the importance of a coordinated and strategic approach that draws on, but does not replicate, past work to maximize benefits to stakeholders.

Late Barremian-Early Aptian palaeoenvironmental change: the Cassis-La Bedoule section (SE France)

The well-dated section of Cassis-La Bédoule in the South Provencal Basin (southern France) allows for a detailed reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental change during the latest Barremian and Early Aptian. For this study, phosphorus (P) and clay-mineral contents, stable-isotope ratios on carbonate (δ13Ccarb) and organic matter (δ13Corg), and redox-sensitive trace elements (RSTE: V, U, As, Co, and Mo) have been measured in this historical stratotype. The base of the section consists of rudist limestone, which is attributed to the Urgonian platform. The presence of low P and RSTE content, and content of up to 30% kaolinite indicate deposition under oligotrophic and oxic conditions, and the presence of warm, humid climatic conditions on the adjacent continent. The top of the Urgonian succession is marked by a hardground with encrusted brachiopods and bivalves, which is interpreted as a drowning surface. The section continues with a succession of limestone and marl containing the first occurrence of planktonic foraminifera. This interval includes several laminated, organic-rich layers recording RSTE enrichments and high Corg:Ptot ratios. The deposition of these organic-rich layers was associated with oxygen-depleted conditions and a large positive excursion in δ13Corg. During this interval, a negative peak in the δ13Ccarb record is observed, which dates as latest Barremian. This excursion is coeval with negative excursions elsewhere in Tethyan platform and basin settings and is explained by the increased input of light dissolved inorganic carbon by rivers and/or volcanic activity. In this interval, an increase in P content, owing to reworking of nearshore sediments during the transgression, is coupled with a decrease in kaolinite content, which tends to be deposited in more proximal areas. The overlying hemipelagic sediments of the Early Aptian Deshayesites oglanlensis and D. weissi zones indicate rather stable palaeoenvironmental conditions with low P content and stable δ13C records. A change towards marl-dominated beds occurs close to the end of the D. weissi zone. These beds display a long decrease in their δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, which lasted until the end of the Deshayesites deshayesi subzone (corresponding to C3 in Menegatti et al., 1998). This is followed by a positive shift during the Roloboceras hambrovi and Deshayesites grandis subzones, which corresponds in time to oceanic anoxic event (OAE) 1a interval. This positive shift is coeval with two increases in the P content. The marly interval equivalent to OAE 1a lacks organic-rich deposits and RSTE enrichments indicating that oxic conditions prevailed in this particular part of the Tethys ocean. The clay mineralogy is dominated by smectite, which is interpreted to reflect trapping of kaolinite on the surrounding platforms rather than indicating a drier climate.

Airborne measurements of trace gases and aerosols over the London metropolitan region

The Emissions around the M25 motorway (EM25) campaign took place over the megacity of London in the United Kingdom in June 2009 with the aim of characterising trace gas and aerosol composition and properties entering and emitted from the urban region. It featured two mobile platforms, the UK BAe-146 Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) research aircraft and a ground-based mobile lidar van, both travelling in circuits around London, roughly following the path of the M25 motorway circling the city. We present an overview of findings from the project, which took place during typical UK summertime pollution conditions. Emission ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to acetylene and carbon monoxide emitted from the London region were consistent with measurements in and downwind of other large urban areas and indicated traffic and associated fuel evaporation were major sources. Sub-micron aerosol composition was dominated by secondary species including sulphate (24% of sub-micron mass in the London plume and 29% in the non-plume regional aerosol), nitrate (24% plume; 20% regional) and organic aerosol (29% plume; 31% regional). The primary sub-micron aerosol emissions from London were minor compared to the larger regional background, with only limited increases in aerosol mass in the urban plume compared to the background (~12% mass increase on average). Black carbon mass was the major exception and more than doubled in the urban plume, leading to a decrease in the single scattering albedo from 0.91 in the regional aerosol to 0.86 in the London plume, on average. Our observations indicated that regional aerosol plays a major role on aerosol concentrations around London, at least during typical summertime conditions, meaning future efforts to reduce PM levels in London must account for regional as well as local aerosol sources.

Beneath a learning management system: understanding the human information interaction in information systems

Studies on learning management systems have largely been technical in nature with an emphasis on the evaluation of the human computer interaction (HCI) processes in using the LMS. This paper reports a study that evaluates the information interaction processes on an eLearning course used in teaching an applied Statistics course. The eLearning course is used as a synonym for information systems. The study explores issues of missing context in stored information in information systems. Using the semiotic framework as a guide, the researchers evaluated an existing eLearning course with the view to proposing a model for designing improved eLearning courses for future eLearning programmes. In this exploratory study, a survey questionnaire is used to collect data from 160 participants on an eLearning course in Statistics in Applied Climatology. The views of the participants are analysed with a focus on only the human information interaction issues. Using the semiotic framework as a guide, syntactic, semantic, pragmatic and social context gaps or problems were identified. The information interactions problems identified include ambiguous instructions, inadequate information, lack of sound, interface design problems among others. These problems affected the quality of new knowledge created by the participants. The researchers thus highlighted the challenges of missing information context when data is stored in an information system. The study concludes by proposing a human information interaction model for improving the information interaction quality issues in the design of eLearning course on learning management platforms and those other information systems.

Adaptive governance: livelihood innovation for climate resilience in Uganda

Adaptive governance is the use of novel approaches within policy to support experimentation and learning. Social learning reflects the engagement of interdependent stakeholders within this learning. Much attention has focused on these concepts as a solution for resilience in governing institutions in an uncertain climate; resilience representing the ability of a system to absorb shock and to retain its function and form through reorganisation. However, there are still many questions to how these concepts enable resilience, particularly in vulnerable, developing contexts. A case study from Uganda presents how these concepts promote resilient livelihood outcomes among rural subsistence farmers within a decentralised governing framework. This approach has the potential to highlight the dynamics and characteristics of a governance system which may manage change. The paper draws from the enabling characteristics of adaptive governance, including lower scale dynamics of bonding and bridging ties and strong leadership. Central to these processes were learning platforms promoting knowledge transfer leading to improved self-efficacy, innovation and livelihood skills. However even though aspects of adaptive governance were identified as contributing to resilience in livelihoods, some barriers were identified. Reflexivity and multi-stakeholder collaboration were evident in governing institutions; however, limited self-organisation and vertical communication demonstrated few opportunities for shifts in governance, which was severely challenged by inequity, politicisation and elite capture. The paper concludes by outlining implications for climate adaptation policy through promoting the importance of mainstreaming adaptation alongside existing policy trajectories; highlighting the significance of collaborative spaces for stakeholders and the tackling of inequality and corruption.

Transformation through translation: translation policies at Amnesty International

International non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are powerful political players who aim to influence global society. In order to be effective on a global scale, they must communicate their goals and achievements in different languages. Translation and translation policy play an essential role here. Despite NGOs’ important position in politics and society, not much is known about how these organisations, who often have limited funds available, organise their translation work. This study aims to contribute to Translation Studies, and more specifically to investigating institutional translation, by exploring translation policies at Amnesty International, one of the most successful and powerful human rights NGOs around the world. Translation policy is understood as comprising three components: translation management, translation practices, and translation beliefs, based on Spolsky’s study of language policy (2004). The thesis investigates how translation is organised and what kind of policies different Amnesty offices have in place, and how this is reflected in their translation products. The thesis thus also pursues how translation and translation policy impact on the organisation’s message and voice as it is spread around the world. An ethnographic approach is used for the analysis of various data sets that were collected during fieldwork. These include policy documents, guidelines on writing and translation, recorded interviews, e-mail correspondence, and fieldnotes. The thesis at first explores Amnesty’s global translation policy, and then presents the results of a comparative analysis of local translation policies at two concrete institutions: Amnesty International Language Resource Centre in Paris (AILRC-FR) and Amnesty International Vlaanderen (AIVL). A corpus of English source texts and Dutch (AIVL) and French (AILRC-FR) target texts are analysed. The findings of the analysis of translation policies and of the translation products are then combined to illustrate how translation impacts on Amnesty’s message and voice. The research results show that there are large differences in how translation is organised depending on the local office and the language(s), and that this also influences the way in which Amnesty’s message and voice are represented. For Dutch and French specifically, translation policies and translation products differ considerably. The thesis describes how these differences are often the result of different beliefs and assumptions relating to translation, and that staff members within Amnesty are not aware of the different conceptions of translation that exist within Amnesty International as a formal institution. Organising opportunities where translation can be discussed (meetings, workshops, online platforms) can help in reducing such differences. The thesis concludes by suggesting that an increased awareness of these issues will enable Amnesty to make more effective use of translation in its fight against human rights violations.

My generation(s): cycles, branding and renewal in E4’s 'Skins'

In an era of fragmenting audience and diversified viewing platforms, youth television needs to move fast and make a lot of noise in order to capture and maintain the attention of the teenage viewer. British ensemble youth drama Skins (E4, 2007-2013) calls attention to itself with its high doses of drugs, chaotic parties and casual attitudes towards sexuality. It also moves quickly, shedding its cast every two seasons as they graduate from school, then renewing itself with a fresh generation of 16 year old characters - three cycles in total. This essay will explore the challenges of maintaining audience connections whilst resetting the narrative clock with each cycle. I suggest that the development of the Skins brand was key to the programme’s success. Branding is particularly important for an audience demographic who increasingly consume their television outside of broadcast flow and essential for a programme which renews its cast every two years. The Skins brand operate as a framework, as the central audience draw, have the strength to maintain audience connections when it ‘graduates’ those characters they identify with at the close of each cycle and starts again from scratch. This essay will explore how the Skins brand constructs a cohesive identity across its multiple generations, yet also consider how the cyclic form poses challenges for the programme’s representations and narratives. This cyclic form allows Skins to repeatedly reach out to a new audience who comes of age alongside each new generation and to reflect shifts in British youth culture. Thus Skins remains ever-youthful, seeking to maintain an at times painfully hip identity. Yet the programme has a somewhat schizophrenic identity, torn between its roots in British realist drama and surrealist comedy and an escapist aspirational glamour that shows the influence of US Teen TV. This combination results in a tendency towards a heightened melodrama at odds with Skins claims for authenticity - its much vaunted teenage advisors and young writers - with the cyclic structure serving to amplify the programme’s excessive tendencies. Each cycle wrestles with a need for continuity and familiarity - partly maintained through brand, aesthetic and setting - yet a desire for freshness and originality, to assert difference from what has gone before. I suggest that the inevitable need for each cycle to ‘top’ what has gone before results in a move away from character-based intimacy and the everyday to high-stakes drama and violence which sits uncomfortably within British youth television.

Examining the relationships between Holocene climate change, hydrology, and human society in Ireland

This thesis explores human-environment interactions during the Mid-Late Holocene in raised bogs in central Ireland. The raised bogs of central Ireland are widely-recognised for their considerable palaeoenvironmental and archaeological resources: research over the past few decades has established the potential for such sites to preserve sensitive records of Holocene climatic variability expressed as changes in bog surface wetness (BSW); meanwhile archaeological investigations over the past century have uncovered hundreds of peatland archaeological features dating from the Neolithic through to the Post-Medieval period including wooden trackways, platforms, and deposits of high-status metalwork. Previous studies have attempted to explore the relationship between records of past environmental change and the occurrence of peatland archaeological sites reaching varying conclusions. More recently, environmentally-deterministic models of human-environment interaction in Irish raised bogs at the regional scale have been explicitly tested leading to the conclusion that there is no relationship between BSW and past human activity. These relationships are examined in more detail on a site-by-site basis in this thesis. To that end, testate amoebae-derived BSW records from nine milled former raised bogs in central Ireland were produced from sites with known and dated archaeological records. Relationships between BSW records and environmental conditions within the study area were explored through both the development of a new central Ireland testate amoebae transfer function and through comparisons between recent BSW records and instrumental weather data. Compilation of BSW records from the nine fossil study sites show evidence both for climate forcing, particularly during 3200-2400 cal BP, as well as considerable inter-site variability. Considerable inter-site variability was also evident in the archaeological records of the same sites. Whilst comparisons between BSW and archaeological records do not show a consistent linear relationship, examination of records on a site-by-site basis were shown to reveal interpretatively important contingent relationships. It is concluded therefore, that future research on human-environment interactions should focus on individual sites and should utilise theoretical approaches from the humanities in order to avoid the twin pitfalls of masking important local patterns of change, and of environmental determinism.

Concepts for a geostationary-like polar missions

An evidence-led scientific case for development of a space-based polar remote sensing platform at geostationary-like (GEO-like) altitudes is developed through methods including a data user survey. Whilst a GEO platform provides a nearstatic perspective, multiple platforms are required to provide circumferential coverage. Systems for achieving GEO-like polar observation likewise require multiple platforms however the perspective is non-stationery. A key choice is between designs that provide complete polar view from a single platform at any given instant, and designs where this is obtained by compositing partial views from multiple sensors. Users foresee an increased challenge in extracting geophysical information from composite images and consider the use of non-composited images advantageous. Users also find the placement of apogee over the pole to be preferable to the alternative scenarios. Thus, a clear majority of data users find the “Taranis” orbit concept to be better than a critical inclination orbit, due to the improved perspective offered. The geophysical products that would benefit from a GEO-like polar platform are mainly estimated from radiances in the visible/near infrared and thermal parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, which is consistent with currently proven technologies from GEO. Based on the survey results, needs analysis, and current technology proven from GEO, scientific and observation requirements are developed along with two instrument concepts with eight and four channels, based on Flexible Combined Imager heritage. It is found that an operational system could, mostly likely, be deployed from an Ariane 5 ES to a 16-hour orbit, while a proof-of-concept system could be deployed from a Soyuz launch to the same orbit.

Elderly learners and Massive Open Online Courses: a review

Background: Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have become commonplace in the e-learning landscape. Thousands of elderly learners are participating in courses offered by various institutions on a multitude of platforms in many different languages. However, there is very little research into understanding elderly learners in MOOCs. Objective: We aim to show that a considerable proportion of elderly learners are participating in MOOCs and that there is a lack of research in this area. We hope this assertion of the wide gap in research on elderly learners in MOOCs will pave the way for more research in this area. Methods: Pre-course survey data for 10 University of Reading courses on the FutureLearn platform were analyzed to show the level of participation of elderly learners in MOOCs. Two MOOC aggregator sites (Class Central and MOOC List) were consulted to gather data on MOOC offerings that include topics relating to aging. In parallel, a selected set of MOOC platform catalogues, along with a recently published review on health and medicine-related MOOCs, were searched to find courses relating to aging. A systematic literature search was then employed to identify research articles on elderly learners in MOOCs. Results: The 10 courses reviewed had a considerable proportion of elderly learners participating in them. For the over-66 age group, this varied from 0.5% (on the course “Managing people”) to 16.3% (on the course “Our changing climate”), while for the over-56 age group it ranged from 3.0% (on “A beginners guide to writing in English”) to 39.5% (on “Heart health”). Only six MOOCs were found to include topics related to aging: three were on the Coursera platform, two on the FutureLearn platform, and one on the Open2Study platform. Just three scholarly articles relating to MOOCs and elderly learners were retrieved from the literature search. Conclusions: This review presents evidence to suggest that elderly learners are already participating in MOOCs. Despite this, there has been very little research into their engagement with MOOCs. Similarly, there has been little research into exploiting the scope of MOOCs for delivering topics that would be of interest to elderly learners. We believe there is potential to use MOOCs as a way of tackling the issue of loneliness among older adults by engaging them as either resource personnel or learners.