Design of a forecasting system for ECMWF

As laid out in its convention there are 8 different objectives for ECMWF. One of the major objectives will consist of the preparation, on a regular basis, of the data necessary for the preparation of medium-range weather forecasts. The interpretation of this item is that the Centre will make forecasts once a day for a prediction period of up to 10 days. It is also evident that the Centre should not carry out any real weather forecasting but merely disseminate to the member countries the basic forecasting parameters with an appropriate resolution in space and time. It follows from this that the forecasting system at the Centre must from the operational point of view be functionally integrated with the Weather Services of the Member Countries. The operational interface between ECMWF and the Member Countries must be properly specified in order to get a reasonable flexibility for both systems. The problem of making numerical atmospheric predictions for periods beyond 4-5 days differs substantially from 2-3 days forecasting. From the physical point we can define a medium range forecast as a forecast where the initial disturbances have lost their individual structure. However we are still interested to predict the atmosphere in a similar way as in short range forecasting which means that the model must be able to predict the dissipation and decay of the initial phenomena and the creation of new ones. With this definition, medium range forecasting is indeed very difficult and generally regarded as more difficult than extended forecasts, where we usually only predict time and space mean values. The predictability of atmospheric flow has been extensively studied during the last years in theoretical investigations and by numerical experiments. As has been discussed elsewhere in this publication (see pp 338 and 431) a 10-day forecast is apparently on the fringe of predictability.

Modeling requirement driven architecture of adaptive healthcare system based on semiotics

In order to improve the quality of healthcare services, the integrated large-scale medical information system is needed to adapt to the changing medical environment. In this paper, we propose a requirement driven architecture of healthcare information system with hierarchical architecture. The system operates through the mapping mechanism between these layers and thus can organize functions dynamically adapting to user’s requirement. Furthermore, we introduce the organizational semiotics methods to capture and analyze user’s requirement through ontology chart and norms. Based on these results, the structure of user’s requirement pattern (URP) is established as the driven factor of our system. Our research makes a contribution to design architecture of healthcare system which can adapt to the changing medical environment.

Multi-agent based modeling and simulation of complex system in hospital

This study puts forward a method to model and simulate the complex system of hospital on the basis of multi-agent technology. The formation of the agents of hospitals with intelligent and coordinative characteristics was designed, the message object was defined, and the model operating mechanism of autonomous activities and coordination mechanism was also designed. In addition, the Ontology library and Norm library etc. were introduced using semiotic method and theory, to enlarge the method of system modelling. Swarm was used to develop the multi-agent based simulation system, which is favorable for making guidelines for hospital's improving it's organization and management, optimizing the working procedure, improving the quality of medical care as well as reducing medical charge costs.

In Vitro Fermentation of NUTRIOSE® FB06, a wheat dextrin soluble fibre, in a continuous culture human colonic model system

Wheat dextrin soluble fibre may have metabolic and health benefits, potentially acting via mechanisms governed by the selective modulation of the human gut microbiota. Our aim was to examine the impact of wheat dextrin on the composition and metabolic activity of the gut microbiota. We used a validated in vitro three-stage continuous culture human colonic model (gut model) system comprised of vessels simulating anatomical regions of the human colon. To mimic human ingestion, 7 g of wheat dextrin (NUTRIOSE® FB06) was administered to three gut models, twice daily at 10.00 and 15.00, for a total of 18 days. Samples were collected and analysed for microbial composition and organic acid concentrations by 16S rRNA-based fluorescence in situ hybridisation and gas chromatography approaches, respectively. Wheat dextrin mediated a significant increase in total bacteria in vessels simulating the transverse and distal colon, and a significant increase in key butyrate-producing bacteria Clostridium cluster XIVa and Roseburia genus in all vessels of the gut model. The production of principal short-chain fatty acids, acetate, propionate and butyrate, which have been purported to have protective, trophic and metabolic host benefits, were increased. Specifically, wheat dextrin fermentation had a significant butyrogenic effect in all vessels of the gut model and significantly increased production of acetate (vessels 2 and 3) and propionate (vessel 3), simulating the transverse and distal regions of the human colon, respectively. In conclusion, wheat dextrin NUTRIOSE® FB06 is selectively fermented in vitro by Clostridium cluster XIVa and Roseburia genus and beneficially alters the metabolic profile of the human gut microbiota.

fMRI evidence for the involvement of the procedural memory system in morphological processing of a second language

Behavioural evidence suggests that English regular past tense forms are automatically decomposed into their stem and affix (played  = play+ed) based on an implicit linguistic rule, which does not apply to the idiosyncratically formed irregular forms (kept). Additionally, regular, but not irregular inflections, are thought to be processed through the procedural memory system (left inferior frontal gyrus, basal ganglia, cerebellum). It has been suggested that this distinction does not to apply to second language (L2) learners of English; however, this has not been tested at the brain level. This fMRI study used a masked-priming task with regular and irregular prime-target pairs (played-play/kept-keep) to investigate morphological processing in native and highly proficient late L2 English speakers. No between-groups differences were revealed. Compared to irregular pairs, regular pairs activated the pars opercularis, bilateral caudate nucleus and the right cerebellum, which are part of the procedural memory network and have been connected with the processing of morphologically complex forms. Our study is the first to provide evidence for native-like involvement of the procedural memory system in processing of regular past tense by late L2 learners of English.

Urban integrated meteorological observations: practice and experience in Shanghai, China

Observations of atmospheric conditions and processes in citiesare fundamental to understanding the interactions between the urban surface and weather/climate, improving the performance of urban weather, air quality and climate models, and providing key information for city end-users (e.g. decision-makers, stakeholders, public). In this paper, Shanghai's urban integrated meteorological observation network (SUIMON) and some examples of intended applications are introduced. Its characteristics include being: multi- purpose (e.g. forecast, research, service), multi-function (high impact weather, city climate, special end-users), multi-scale (e.g. macro/meso-, urban-, neighborhood, street canyon), multi-variable (e.g. thermal, dynamic, chemical, bio-meteorological, ecological), and multi- platform (e.g. radar, wind profiler, ground-based, satellite based, in-situ observation/ sampling). Underlying SUIMON is a data management system to facilitate exchange of data and information. The overall aim of the network is to improve coordination strategies and instruments; to identify data gaps based on science and user driven requirements; and to intelligently combine observations from a variety of platforms by using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the urban atmosphere.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Signaling via NF-kappaB in the nervous system

Nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kappaB) is an inducible transcription factor present in neurons and glia. Recent genetic models identified a role for NF-kappaB in neuroprotection against various neurotoxins. Furthermore, genetic evidence for a role in learning and memory is now emerging. This review highlights our current understanding of neuronal NF-kappaB in response to synaptic transmission and summarizes potential physiological functions of NF-kappaB in the nervous system. This article contains a listing of NF-kappaB activators and inhibitors in the nervous system, furthermore specific target genes are discussed. Synaptic NF-kappaB activated by glutamate and Ca2+ will be presented in the context of retrograde signaling. A controversial role of NF-kappaB in neurodegenerative diseases will be discussed. A model is proposed explaining this paradox as deregulated physiological NF-kappaB activity, where novel results are integrated, showing that p65 could be turned from an activator to a repressor of anti-apoptotic genes.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

A multi-instrument comparison of integrated water vapour measurements at a high latitude site

We compare measurements of integrated water vapour (IWV) over a subarctic site (Kiruna, Northern Sweden) from five different sensors and retrieval methods: Radiosondes, Global Positioning System (GPS), ground-based Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, ground-based microwave radiometer, and satellite-based microwave radiometer (AMSU-B). Additionally, we compare also to ERA-Interim model reanalysis data. GPS-based IWV data have the highest temporal coverage and resolution and are chosen as reference data set. All datasets agree reasonably well, but the ground-based microwave instrument only if the data are cloud-filtered. We also address two issues that are general for such intercomparison studies, the impact of different lower altitude limits for the IWV integration, and the impact of representativeness error. We develop methods for correcting for the former, and estimating the random error contribution of the latter. A literature survey reveals that reported systematic differences between different techniques are study-dependent and show no overall consistent pattern. Further improving the absolute accuracy of IWV measurements and providing climate-quality time series therefore remain challenging problems.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.