The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (*2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.

Current changes in tropical precipitation

Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean–atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged.

Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model

The climatology of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 coupled general circulation model (GCM) is presented. The atmosphere GCM has a T21 spectral truncation and the ocean GCM has a 2°×1.5° average resolution. A 50-year climatic simulation is performed using the OASIS coupler, without flux correction techniques. The mean state and seasonal cycle for the last 10 years of the experiment are described and compared to the corresponding uncoupled experiments and to climatology when available. The model reasonably simulates most of the basic features of the observed climate. Energy budgets and transports in the coupled system, of importance for climate studies, are assessed and prove to be within available estimates. After an adjustment phase of a few years, the model stabilizes around a mean state where the tropics are warm and resemble a permanent ENSO, the Southern Ocean warms and almost no sea-ice is left in the Southern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal and symmetric with respect to the equator. Once those systematic errors are established, the model shows little secular drift, the small remaining trends being mainly associated to horizontal physics in the ocean GCM. The stability of the model is shown to be related to qualities already present in the uncoupled GCMs used, namely a balanced radiation budget at the top-of-the-atmosphere and a tight ocean thermocline.

Pilot study of the short-term physico-chemical stability of atenolol tablets stored in a multi-compartment compliance aid

Study objectives: There is a possibility that lower air, moisture and light protection could impact on physico-chemical stability of medicines inside multi-compartment compliance aids (MCCAs), although this has not yet been proved. The objectives of the study were to examine the physico-chemical stability of atenolol tablets stored in a compliance aid at room temperature, and at elevated temperature and humidity to simulate practice conditions. Methods: Atenolol 100 mg tablets in 28-chamber, plastic compliance aids with transparent lids were stored for four weeks at room temperature and at 40°C with 75% relative humidity. Tablets were also stored at room temperature in original packaging and Petri dishes. Physical tests were conducted to standards as laid down in the British Pharmacopoeia 2005, and dissolution to those of the United States Pharmacopoeia volume 24. Chemical stability was assessed by a validated high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. Results: Tablets at room temperature in original packaging, in compliance aids and Petri dishes remained the same in appearance and passed physico-chemical tests. Tablets exposed to 40°C with 75% relative humidity in compliance aids passed tests for uniformity of weight, friability and chemical stability but became pale and moist, softer (82 newtons ± 4; p< 0.0001) than tablets in the original packaging (118 newtons ± 6), more friable (0.14% loss of mass) compared with other tablets (0.005%), and failed the tests for disintegration (>15 minutes) and dissolution (only 15% atenolol released at 30 minutes). Conclusion: Although chemical stability was unaffected, storage in compliance aids at 40°C with 75% relative humidity softened atenolol tablets, prolonged disintegration time and hindered dissolution which could significantly reduce bioavailability. This formulation could be suitable for storage in compliance aids at 25°C, but not in hotter, humid weather.

A global climatology of wind–wave interaction

Generally, ocean waves are thought to act as a drag on the surface wind so that momentum is transferred downwards, from the atmosphere into the waves. Recent observations have suggested that when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the surface wind momentum can also be transferred upwards. This upward momentum transfer acts to accelerate the near-surface wind, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. Previous studies have suggested that the sign reversal of the momentum flux is well predicted by the inverse wave age, the ratio of the surface wind speed to the speed of the waves at the peak of the spectrum. ECMWF ERA-40 data has been used here to calculate the global distribution of the inverse wave age to determine whether there are regions of the ocean that are usually in the wind-driven wave regime and others that are generally in the wave-driven wind regime. The wind-driven wave regime is found to occur most often in the mid-latitude storm tracks where wind speeds are generally high. The wave-driven wind regime is found to be prevalent in the tropics where wind speeds are generally light and swell can propagate from storms at higher latitudes. The inverse wave age is also a useful indicator of the degree of coupling between the local wind and wave fields. The climatologies presented emphasise the non-equilibrium that exists between the local wind and wave fields and highlight the importance of swell in the global oceans.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Speciation in fig wasps

There are over 700 species of fig trees in the tropics and several thousand species of fig wasps are associated with their syconia (inflorescences). These wasps comprise a monophyletic family of fig pollinators and several diverse lineages of non-pollinating wasps. The pollinator larvae gall fig flowers, while larvae of non-pollinating species either initiate their own galls or parasitise the galls of other wasps. A single fig species has 1-4 pollinator species and also hosts up to 30 non-pollinating wasp species. Most wasps show a high degree of host plant specificity and are known from only a single fig species. However, in some cases wasps may be shared across closely related fig species. There is impressive morphological coevolution between figs and fig wasps and this, combined with a high degree of partner specificity, led to the expectation that figs and pollinators have cospeciated extensively. Comparison of deep phylogenies supports long-term codivergence of figs and pollinators, but also suggests that some host shifts have occurred. Phylogenies of more closely related species do not match perfectly and may even be incongruent, suggesting significant roles for processes other than strict cospeciation. Combined with recent evidence on host specificity patterns, this suggests that pollinator wasps may often speciate by host shifts between closely related figs, or by duplication (the wasp speciates but the fig doesn't). The frequencies and biological details of these different modes of speciation invite further study. Far less is known about speciation in non-pollinating fig wasps. Some lineages have probably coevolved with figs and pollinators for most of the evolutionary history of the symbiosis, while others appear to be more recent colonisers. Many species appear to be highly host plant specific, but those that lay eggs through the fig wall without entering the syconium (the majority of species) may be subject to fewer constraints on host-shifting than pollinators. There is evidence for substantial host shifting in at least one gens, but also evidence for ecological speciation on the same host plant by niche shifts in other cases. Finally, recent work has begun to address the issue of “community phylogeny” and provided evidence for long-term co-divergence of multiple pollinating and non-pollinating wasp lineages with their host figs.

Determination of the optical properties of plastic films used as cladding materials in novel energy efficient greenhouses

Greenhouse cladding materials are a major component in the design of energy efficient greenhouses. The optical properties of cladding materials determine a major part of the overall performance of a greenhouse both in terms of the energy balance of the greenhouse and on crop behavior. Various film plastic greenhouse-cladding materials were measured under laboratory conditions using a spectroradiometer equipped with an integrating sphere. Films were measured over a range of angles of incidence and the effect of increasing distance between double films was also measured. PAR transmission remained nearly constant for angles of incidence increased up to 30 degrees but fell rapidly thereafter as the angles of incidence increased up to 90 degrees. Increasing distance between double films did not significantly affect PAR transmission in all films examined. These results are discussed in relation to the design criteria for an energy efficient greenhouse.

Effects of straw and silicon soil amendments on some foliar and stem-base diseases in pot-grown winter wheat

Four foliar and two stem-base pathogens were inoculated onto wheat plants grown in different substrates in pot experiments. Soils from four different UK locations were each treated in three ways: (i) straw incorporated in the field at 10 t ha−1 several months previously; (ii) silicon fertilization at 100 mg L−1 during the experiment; and (iii) no amendments. A sand and vermiculite mix was used with and without silicon amendment. The silicon treatment increased plant silica concentrations in all experiments, but incorporating straw was not associated with raised plant silica concentrations. Blumeria graminis and Puccinia recondita were inoculated by shaking infected plants over the test plants, followed by suitable humid periods. The silicon treatment reduced powdery mildew (B. graminis) substantially in sand and vermiculite and in two of the soils, but there were no effects on the slight infection by brown rust (P. recondita). Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola were inoculated as conidial suspensions. Leaf spot caused by P. nodorum was reduced in silicon-amended sand and vermiculite; soil was not tested. Symptoms of septoria leaf blotch caused by M. graminicola were reduced by silicon amendment in a severely infected sand and vermiculite experiment but not in soil or a slightly infected sand and vermiculite experiment. Oculimacula yallundae (eyespot) and Fusarium culmorum (brown foot rot) were inoculated as agar plugs on the stem base. Severity of O. yallundae was reduced by silicon amendment of two of the soils but not sand and vermiculite; brown foot rot symptoms caused by F. culmorum were unaffected by silicon amendment. The straw treatment reduced severity of powdery mildew but did not detectably affect the other pathogens. Both straw and silicon treatments appeared to increase plant resistance to all diseases only under high disease pressure.

A new porous 2D coordination polymer built by copper(II) and trimesic acid

A 2D porous material, Cu-3(tmen)(3)(tma)(2)(H2O)(2)(.)6.5H(2)O [tmen = N,N,N',N'-tetramethylethane-1,2-diamine; tmaH(3) = 1,3,5-benzenetricarboxylic acid/trimesic acid], has been synthesized and characterized by X-ray single crystal analysis, variable temperature magnetic measurements, IR spectra and XRPD pattern. The complex consists of 2D layers built by three crystallographically independent Cu(tmen) moieties bridged by tma anions. Of the three copper ions, Cu(1) and Cu(2) present distorted square pyramidal coordination geometry, while the third exhibits a severely distorted octahedral environment. The Cu(1)(tmen) and Cu(2)(tmen) building blocks bridged by tma anions give rise to chains with a zig-zag motif, which are cross-connected by Cu(3)(tmen)-tma polymers sharing metal ions Cu(2) through pendant tma carboxylates. The resulting 2D architecture extends in the crystallographic ab-plane. The adjacent sheets are embedded through the Cu(3)(tmen) tma chains, leaving H2O-filled channels. There are 6.5 lattice water molecules per formula unit, some of which are disordered. Upon heating, the lattice water molecules get eliminated without destroying the crystal morphology and the compound rehydrated reversibly on exposure to humid atmosphere. Magnetic data of the complex have been fitted considering isolated irregular Cu-3 triangles (three different J parameters) by applying the CLUMAG program. The best fit indicates three close comparable J parameters and very weak antiferromagnetic interactions are operative between the metal centers. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between convection and sea surface temperature on intraseasonal timescales

The relationship between tropical convection, surface fluxes, and sea surface temperature (SST) on intraseasonal timescales has been examined as part of an investigation of the possibility that the intraseasonal oscillation is a coupled atmosphere–ocean phenomenon. The unique feature of this study is that 15 yr of data and the whole region from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean have been analyzed using lag-correlation analysis and compositing techniques. A coherent relationship between convection, surface fluxes, and SST has been found on intraseasonal timescales in the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and west Pacific regions of the Tropics. Prior to the maximum in convection, there are positive shortwave and latent heat flux anomalies into the surface, followed by warm SST anomalies about 10 days before the convective maximum. Coincident with the convective maximum, there is a minimum in the shortwave flux, followed by a cooling due to increased evaporation associated with enhanced westerly wind stress, leading to negative SST anomalies about 10 days after the convection. The relationships are robust from year to year, including both phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) although the eastward extent of the region over which the relationship holds varies with the phase of ENSO, consistent with the variations in the eastward extent of the warm pool and westerly winds. The spatial scale of the anomalies is about 60° longitude, consistent with the scale of the intraseasonal oscillation. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the surface flux and SST perturbations are consistent with the surface flux variations forcing the ocean, and the magnitudes of the anomalies are consistent with mixed-layer depths appropriate to the Indian Ocean and west Pacific

An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends

An updated analysis of observed stratospheric temperature variability and trends is presented on the basis of satellite, radiosonde, and lidar observations. Satellite data include measurements from the series of NOAA operational instruments, including the Microwave Sounding Unit covering 1979–2007 and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) covering 1979–2005. Radiosonde results are compared for six different data sets, incorporating a variety of homogeneity adjustments to account for changes in instrumentation and observational practices. Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of 0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979–2007, with some differences in detail among the different radiosonde and satellite data sets. Substantially larger cooling trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole. Trends in the lower stratosphere derived from radiosonde data are also analyzed for a longer record (back to 1958); trends for the presatellite era (1958–1978) have a large range among the different homogenized data sets, implying large trend uncertainties. Trends in the middle and upper stratosphere have been derived from updated SSU data, taking into account changes in the SSU weighting functions due to observed atmospheric CO2 increases. The results show mean cooling of 0.5–1.5 K/decade during 1979–2005, with the greatest cooling in the upper stratosphere near 40–50 km. Temperature anomalies throughout the stratosphere were relatively constant during the decade 1995–2005. Long records of lidar temperature measurements at a few locations show reasonable agreement with SSU trends, although sampling uncertainties are large in the localized lidar measurements. Updated estimates of the solar cycle influence on stratospheric temperatures show a statistically significant signal in the tropics (30N–S), with an amplitude (solar maximum minus solar minimum) of 0.5 K (lower stratosphere) to 1.0 K (upper stratosphere).